At the start of the new year, two important pieces of news emerged in the photovoltaic industry. The aftermath of several leading silicon material manufacturers being summoned for talks by the State Administration for Market Regulation is still fresh, and now the news of the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products is also making headlines. The “Announcement on Adjusting Export Tax Rebate Policies for Photovoltaic and Other Products” issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation stipulates that, starting April 1st this year, export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. This also means that the “era of tax rebates and subsidies” for photovoltaics is coming to an end. Industry insiders believe that the complete cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates will have a significant impact on module manufacturers, and a wave of “rush exports” is expected before April this year.
According to the 2025 semi-annual reports of the four major photovoltaic module manufacturers, Jinko Solar’s overseas business accounted for over 60% during the reporting period; JA Solar and Trina Solar’s overseas business each accounted for nearly 50%; LONGi Green Energy had the lowest proportion, less than 40%.
The export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products is being adjusted again. On January 9, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement stating that, starting from April 1 this year, the export tax rebate for value-added tax on photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, the export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%; starting from January 1, 2027, the export tax rebate for value-added tax on battery products will be cancelled.
For products subject to consumption tax among the aforementioned products, the export consumption tax policy will remain unchanged, and the consumption tax refund (exemption) policy will continue to apply. The export tax refund rate applicable to the products listed in the announcement is determined by the export date indicated on the export customs declaration. Furthermore, the announcement also lists the specific products involved, including 249 photovoltaic products and 22 battery products. That evening, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association interpreted this as follows: timely reduction or cancellation of export tax refunds for photovoltaic products will help promote a rational return of prices in overseas markets. Although adjusting export tax refunds is not the only way to fundamentally solve the problem of “internal competition,” in the long run, it is conducive to curbing the excessively rapid decline in export prices. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that since 2024, my country’s photovoltaic products have faced increasingly fierce vicious competition in overseas markets, with export prices continuing to decline, showing a trend of “increased volume and decreased price.” Some companies, in the export process, not only engage in low-price competition but also convert export tax refunds into bargaining space with overseas buyers, resulting in fiscal funds originally intended to offset domestic value-added tax burdens being transferred to overseas purchasers during the bargaining process. This effectively transforms the export tax rebate policy into a subsidy for overseas end-user markets, causing not only profit losses for domestic enterprises but also significantly increasing the risk of international trade frictions such as anti-subsidy and anti-dumping measures against my country’s photovoltaic industry. It should be noted that as early as November 15, 2024, the two departments issued an announcement reducing the export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic and other products from 13% to 9%. This latest adjustment marks the first time since my country’s photovoltaic industry was included in the export tax rebate policy system that the export tax rebate for related products has been completely abolished. The market generally believes that the complete abolition of photovoltaic export tax rebates will have the greatest impact on module manufacturers, and is expected to trigger a wave of “rush exports” before April this year. Looking at the latest performance of the four major module manufacturers, Jinko Solar, Trina Solar, JA Solar, and LONGi Green Energy were all in a loss-making state in the first three quarters of 2025, with Trina Solar incurring the largest loss. Financial data shows that Jinko Solar, Trina Solar, JA Solar, and LONGi Green Energy had revenues of approximately RMB 47.986 billion, RMB 49.97 billion, RMB 36.809 billion, and RMB 50.915 billion, respectively; and corresponding net profits attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB -3.92 billion, RMB -4.201 billion, RMB -3.553 billion, and RMB -3.403 billion, respectively. Looking at the proportion of overseas revenue among the four companies, in the first half of 2025, Jinko Solar ranked first in overseas business revenue, with overseas sales revenue accounting for over 60%, reaching approximately RMB 20.535 billion; JA Solar ranked second, with overseas business revenue of approximately RMB 11.842 billion, accounting for approximately 49.54%; Trina Solar ranked third, with overseas business revenue of approximately RMB 14.767 billion, accounting for approximately 47.55% of its revenue; and LONGi Green Energy’s overseas business revenue was approximately RMB 12.406 billion, accounting for approximately 37.81% of its revenue. However, none of the four companies listed the specific ratio of domestic export capacity to products produced by overseas factories in their semi-annual reports. Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance, believes that the complete cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates marks the end of the “subsidy-driven” era. In the short term, the policy provides a buffer period of nearly three months, and it is expected that there will be a concentrated customs declaration in Q1, with module manufacturers and overseas distributors simultaneously increasing their inventory; if overseas demand does not increase in tandem, a temporary “demand vacuum” will appear in Q2, exacerbating price volatility. In the medium to long term, after losing the tax rebate benefit, overseas customers will place greater emphasis on product efficiency, residual value, financing availability, and local services. Companies with patents, overseas production capacity, energy storage system solutions, and channel brands will gain a premium, while pure OEM SMEs will be marginalized, and the industry will enter a phase of “quality improvement and efficiency enhancement.” Prior to the news of the complete cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates, a widely circulated rumor had just emerged in the photovoltaic industry, each piece of news forcing the industry to shift towards market-driven growth. A reporter from Beijing Business Daily learned that there were reports that the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and several leading polysilicon companies were summoned for talks by the State Administration for Market Regulation. Participating companies included Tongwei, GCL, Daquan Energy, Xinte Energy, Asia Silicon Silicon Industry, and East Hope Group. The reporter also learned from industry insiders that the news was true. It is understood that since the price increase of polysilicon, regulators have received multiple complaints. The main content of this meeting included reporting on the monopoly risks related to the industry consolidation plan, clarifying rectification opinions, and making requirements for companies to carry out rectification work. The online leaked rectification guidelines from the meeting stipulate that no agreements should be made regarding production capacity, capacity utilization rate, production and sales volume, or sales price; market division, output allocation, and profit distribution should not be conducted in any form based on investment ratios; and communication and coordination regarding current and future prices, costs, production and sales volume should be prohibited. Following this meeting, adjustments to the polysilicon stockpiling plan cannot be ruled out. For the market, many industry insiders believe that changes to the stockpiling plan or export tax rebates will further promote the continued deepening of the photovoltaic industry’s “anti-involution” process. Previously, at the 2025 Photovoltaic Industry Supply Chain Development (Datong) Seminar held on July 24, 2025, Yao Yao, chief analyst of new energy and power equipment at Guojin Securities, stated that since the end of last year, my country’s top policy-making institutions have repeatedly conveyed their determination to resolve the structural contradictions in key industries represented by photovoltaics. Since 2025, top-level signals regarding the “anti-involution” of the photovoltaic industry have been released intensively and with continuously increasing specifications, suggesting that photovoltaics may become a benchmark industry. Yuan Shuai, Deputy Secretary-General of the Zhongguancun Internet of Things Industry Alliance, stated that from the perspective of long-term industry development, the cancellation of export tax rebates will force companies to shift from “price competition” to “value competition.” The low-price strategy that relied on export tax rebates in the past is unsustainable. Companies need to reduce production costs through technological upgrades, improve product conversion efficiency, or extend into higher value-added segments. Simultaneously, policy adjustments may accelerate the overseas expansion of production capacity. To avoid tax costs, companies may transfer some production capacity to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other regions, utilizing local tax incentives or free trade agreements to maintain export competitiveness. However, this also faces risks such as local policy uncertainties and insufficient supply chain support. “The cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates is a key signal for the industry’s transformation from ‘policy-driven’ to ‘market-driven.’ After short-term pain, it will drive the industry towards high-quality development. Companies with leading technology and strong cost control capabilities will gain a larger market share, while companies lacking core competitiveness will face integration or elimination,” Yuan Shuai further stated.
