Starting April 1, 2026, export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will be zero; by January 1, 2027, tax rebates for battery products will also be completely cancelled. This is not a rumor, but a clear timetable given by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration in Announcement No. 2 of 2026, which clearly specifies the time, scope, and list.
Many people’s first reaction is that this policy adjustment is “very significant,” but in fact, the groundwork has been laid for this. In November 2024, the tax rebate rate for related products had already been reduced from 13% to 9%, giving the market a buffer period.
With the policy further implemented, the tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be the first to be reduced to zero, while a one-year transition period will be set for battery products, initially reducing it to 6%, and then reducing it to zero in 2027. The list includes 249 photovoltaic products and 22 battery products, including lithium-ion batteries.
For those in foreign trade concerned about the policy interpretation, remember this: the policy applies based on the export date on the export declaration form, and the consumption tax policy remains unchanged. This means that companies need to be more precise in their production scheduling and customs declaration, as even a one-day difference can drastically change the tax burden.
The reasons behind this policy adjustment deserve in-depth exploration. The main theme is clear: to combat internal competition, reduce the fiscal burden, mitigate trade friction risks, and drive resources towards high-quality development. In the past, using tax rebates to lower prices often led to foreign countries using this as a pretext to impose additional tariffs, ultimately offsetting each other’s efforts, and the money wasn’t used where it was most needed. Instead of letting tax rebates be offset by additional tariffs, it’s better to save the money and invest it in technology, branding, and supply chain security.
Multiple statistics show that China’s global market share in photovoltaic and battery sectors is already high, with pricing power and industrial chain completeness far exceeding most competitors. Industry associations interpret this as helping overseas market prices return to rationality, reducing trade friction, and curbing excessively rapid low-price competition. Some industry experts bluntly stated that this is a policy signal of “anti-involution,” prompting companies to abandon low-price bidding and seek growth in high-end and efficient products.
Data also illustrates some points. According to industry associations, from January to October 2025, photovoltaic product exports reached US$24.42 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2%, a significant narrowing compared to the 34.5% decline in the same period of 2024.
This indicates that the price war has subsided, and companies are beginning to return to rationality, which is perfect for adapting to this policy shift.
High-quality development, at the enterprise level, means iterating processes, improving yield rates, and enhancing system solution capabilities, rather than simply lowering product prices. Some worry about a short-term surge in “export rush,” and some in the market believe that orders will surge in the first quarter, even continuing through the Spring Festival. However, these are mostly speculations, and the scale and scope have not been authoritatively confirmed. From the perspective of supply chain partners, short-term gains are less important than long-term considerations. Many companies’ finance departments have begun to carefully calculate factors such as gross profit, exchange rates, freight costs, and customs clearance dates, resulting in frequent exchanges of quotation emails.
Going forward, the greatest short-term pressure will likely be on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), while leading companies, with their technology, brand, and overseas production capacity, will be better positioned to absorb the impact. This is not about forcing SMEs out of the market, but rather compelling them to upgrade and specialize. Before considering whether to build factories overseas, companies should first assess their order structure, customer geographic distribution, and financing capabilities, and then consider production capacity layout. For leading enterprises with the necessary resources, combining overseas production capacity with local R&D and supply chain management would be a more prudent strategy.
More importantly, the saved policy space should be invested in more valuable areas, such as R&D, core components, process software, and material substitution, which will bring long-term benefits. Simultaneously, the industry should be integrated with “artificial intelligence + manufacturing,” leveraging the special action guidelines from eight departments to introduce AI into production lines, processes, quality inspection, and production scheduling, effectively improving production efficiency.
Furthermore, the RMB may face appreciation pressure in the coming years, meaning export-oriented enterprises can no longer rely on experience for exchange rate management. Moreover, it is crucial to protect the industrial chain, safeguard intellectual property rights, combat malicious dumping, and take reciprocal countermeasures against high tariffs that obstruct exports, ensuring stable upstream resource supply and reasonable prices. Traditional industries can also explore the added value of culture and services, making products more personalized and increasing profit margins.
In short, the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics and batteries marks a shift from “price competition” to “value competition.” While there are short-term challenges, the long-term landscape is becoming clearer. Businesses should reassess their order and customs clearance schedules, streamline their technology and cost strategies, and clearly communicate their value proposition to customers. When businesses no longer rely on tax rebates to gain market share, but instead win through technology, brand, and efficiency, the industry’s ceiling will be raised. This is not a decline, but a shift in gears, propelling the industry towards a higher-quality development stage.
