Recently, many retail investors have clearly noticed that the rhythm of the A-share market is very different from that in previous months.
It is no longer a market that is generally rising and easy to make money, nor is it a weak market that continues to fall and has no chance. Instead, it shows the characteristics of typical structural differentiation, accelerated rotation, and clear main lines.
The overall trend of the market is relatively stable, the index fluctuates little, and it always operates within a reasonable shock range. The weighted sectors play a role in stabilizing the market and stabilizing the basic market.
However, the money-making effect within the market is concentrated in a few high-prosperity tracks. Most unpopular sectors and low-priced stocks have basically no sustained market trends and only have small fluctuations every day.
The current real situation of A-shares is that the index is stable, individual stocks are differentiated, the main line is eating meat, and miscellaneous stocks are eating soup.
For ordinary retail investors, if they cannot understand the market logic and cannot grasp the core main line, even if they spend four or five hours a day watching the market, it will be difficult to make a profit, and they may even lose money due to frequent operations.
At present, the main line that deserves the most attention in the market and has a clear industry inflection point is the semiconductor advanced packaging track. Its upstream core supporting electronic ceramic material sector has also ushered in a mid- to long-term layout window period.
First, let’s look at the overall situation of the current A-share market.
The current A-share market sentiment is in a moderate recovery stage, with neither extreme fanaticism nor extreme panic. The overall market funds tend to be rational and cautious.
Northbound funds have steadily flowed in in phases, focusing on core tracks such as technology and high-end manufacturing. Domestic institutions have repeatedly carried out rotational arbitrage around high-prosperity directions such as the AI industry chain, new semiconductor materials, and new energy segments.
Judging from the index performance, the trends of the major broad-based indexes are balanced, there is no unilateral upward or downward trend, and the overall market risk appetite is moderate.
This means that there will not be a general decline, but there is also a lack of incremental funds for a comprehensive bull market, so it is difficult to see a general rise.
To put it simply, the current A-share market is a partial bull market and an overall shock.
The characteristic of this market is that “the strong will always be strong and the weak will always be weak.”
As long as the industry logic of popular tracks does not collapse, funds will repeatedly band together and speculate, and continue to move out of the band market; while unpopular sectors without policy support, performance support and technological breakthroughs will continue to be marginalized and will be difficult to rebound in a decent way.
Many retail investors continue to lose money in a volatile market. The core reason is that they cannot understand the structural market situation and always want to catch low prices to make up for gains and buy unpopular stocks at the bottom.
When I see others making money on the main track, but my own stocks are not moving, my mentality becomes unbalanced and I frequently change stocks, chase the rise and kill the fall, and ultimately the more I trade, the more I lose.
Therefore, in the volatile and differentiated market, retail investors should give up casting a net everywhere, focus on the core main lines, and only focus on high-prosperity tracks with policy support, technological breakthroughs, performance increments and capital attention.
Semiconductor advanced packaging and ceramic materials are the core main lines with mid- to long-term certainty in the current market.
The following is an in-depth analysis of the industry situation.
Semiconductor advanced packaging is the core breakthrough in the post-Moore era, and the industry’s prosperity has completely reversed.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to break through traditional chip manufacturing processes, and the phenomenon of “Moore’s Law slowing down” is obvious.
In this context, advanced packaging technology has become the optimal solution to improve chip performance, reduce costs, and achieve computing power upgrades. It is also the core track of competition in the global semiconductor industry.
Advanced packaging is different from traditional low-end packaging, including high-end technologies such as 2.5D packaging, 3D packaging, Chiplet packaging, and CSP wafer-level packaging.
It does not rely on the ultimate process technology. Through chip heterogeneous integration and stacked interconnection, it can greatly improve the computing power, power consumption and stability of the chip, adapting to the current needs of AI large computing power chips, high-end storage chips, and server chips.
From the perspective of industry data, the global advanced packaging market has maintained a high growth rate for a long time.
The total size of the global packaging and testing market is expected to reach US$96.1 billion in 2026, of which the proportion of high-end advanced packaging will continue to increase.
Global leading technology companies are also frantically increasing their advanced packaging production capacity. For example, TSMC plans to expand its CoWoS advanced packaging production capacity.
Returning to the domestic market, advanced packaging is the segment with the highest technological maturity, the fastest localization progress, and the strongest global competitiveness in my country’s semiconductor industry.
The state continues to introduce industrial support policies to support domestic advanced packaging technology research and development and production capacity expansion.
In 2026, the advanced semiconductor packaging industry will usher in an inflection point in supply, demand, performance, and valuation. Downstream demand will explode, upstream production capacity will be released, and the industry will shift from oversupply to a tight balance between supply and demand.
Electronic ceramic materials are core consumables for advanced packaging, and there is huge room for domestic substitution.
Electronic ceramics are an indispensable core basic material in advanced semiconductor packaging. They have many advantages such as high thermal conductivity and high insulation. They are the core raw materials for high-end chip packaging substrates, structural parts, and heat dissipation components.
In advanced packaging, the usage rate of ceramic substrates and structural parts is extremely high, which determines the heat dissipation efficiency, operational stability and service life of the chip.
AI large computing power chips have created rigid incremental demand for high-performance electronic ceramic materials.
At present, the global high-end semiconductor ceramic material market has long been monopolized by overseas companies. Domestic companies mainly produce mid- to low-end products, and the high-end localization rate is extremely low.
However, in the past two years, domestic new material companies have continued to tackle technical problems, and their product performance has reached the international mainstream level, and they have begun to enter the global leading supply chain in batches.
With the expansion of advanced packaging production capacity and the explosion of demand for AI chips, the market size of high-end electronic ceramic materials is rapidly expanding.
Combined with the triple logic of domestic substitution, industry increment and technological breakthrough, this segment has huge room for mid- to long-term growth.
The logic of the industry chain is: explosion of demand for AI computing power → shortage of advanced packaging production capacity and continued expansion of production → substantial increase in demand for upstream high-end ceramic materials → technological breakthroughs by domestic ceramic material companies and substitution of imports → the industry will usher in continued performance and valuation repairs.
Combined with this main line, share some practical experience in stock trading with retail investors.
First of all, give priority to tracks with industrial logic and avoid pure news hype.
The market stimulated by pure news lacks performance support and industry trends. The rise is short-term capital speculation, making it difficult for retail investors to leave the market in time.
The semiconductor packaging and electronic ceramics track is a market brought about by industrial upgrading, technological breakthroughs and performance growth. It is sustainable and suitable for band operation and medium- and long-term layout.
Secondly, in the volatile market, stock exchanges are infrequent, and we focus on the main line of deep cultivation.
Frequent stock exchanges can easily lead to shortfalls and losses. The mature investment idea is to look for the main line of high prosperity, hold patiently, and take advantage of swing arbitrage.
Finally, we must respect the industry cycle and not go against the trend and buy the bottom.
The A-share industry has cycles, and retail investors should lurk at the bottom of the cycle, hold when the cycle goes up, and decisively leave the market when the cycle peaks.
Novice retail investors also need to pay attention to avoid pitfalls.
The first is to avoid high-level stocks that are pure speculation. Such stocks have no core technology and order performance, and will fall back sharply after the hot spot ebbs.
The second is to put an end to the emotional operation of chasing the rise and killing the fall. You should buy low and hold in shock when the main track pulls back.
The third is not to over-weight or play with a full position, but to develop the habit of decentralized layout, trial and error with light positions, and rolling bands.
The fourth is not to be superstitious about short-term ups and downs and ignore long-term logic. Semiconductor packaging and ceramic materials are medium- and long-term industry trends, and short-term shocks and callbacks are normal technical washouts.
From the perspective of long-term investment logic, independent and controllable technology is the eternal main line of A-shares.
In the current domestic capital market, high-end manufacturing, independent and controllable technology, and localization of new materials are the core directions of key policy support and long-term capital deployment.
Semiconductor advanced packaging is a key track for domestic semiconductors to break through bottlenecks. There is broad room for domestic substitution of upstream core new materials such as electronic ceramics, and the prosperity will remain high in the next few years.
The medium- and long-term layout logic of institutional funds and northbound funds focuses on industry trends and performance certainty. Semiconductor packaging and high-end ceramic materials combine the four core logics of policy dividends, technological breakthroughs, performance increments, and domestic substitution. They are high-quality tracks for long-term institutional funds.
In short, the current structural market trend of A-shares is clear, the index is overall stable, and the money-making effect is concentrated in the high-prosperity technology track.
After the semiconductor industry has been adjusted, the advanced packaging track has reached an inflection point, driving the growth of the upstream electronic ceramic materials track.
Retail investors should abandon short-term speculative thinking, focus on the core main lines, rationally participate in market conditions, and survive in the market for a long time with stable, sustained, and rational compound interest returns.
