In the second quarter of 2026, the manufacturing industry is gradually picking up steam, and the machine tool industry is quietly undergoing three changes.
In the past May, in the workshop of a medium-sized mold factory in the Yangtze River Delta, more than 20 machine tools were rarely in operation.
Boss Lao Zhou said that orders have gradually picked up after the Spring Festival, and production has been basically at full capacity in the past two months. “The work at hand is urgent, and the equipment does not dare to be stopped for a day.”
Lao Zhou’s feelings are not unique. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that manufacturing investment in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 9.2% year-on-year, 1.7 percentage points faster than last year.
The manufacturing PMI rebounded to 51.1% in April, and the new orders index and production index expanded simultaneously.
Industrial machinery, as the “heart” of the manufacturing industry, was the first to feel this warmth.
This round of recovery is not only a “quantitative” recovery, but also a “qualitative” change.
With the three dimensions of policy, demand, and technology acting simultaneously, the machine tool industry is undergoing a quiet structural shift.
On the policy side, equipment updates have entered the implementation period.
At the beginning of 2026, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology implemented detailed plans, clearly proposing to upgrade old machine tools that have been in service for more than 10 years.
The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a document to lower the application threshold and increase interest discounts for small and medium-sized enterprises.
200 billion yuan of super-long-term special treasury bond funds have been allocated to support major technical reforms and equipment updates, and local supporting policies have also been introduced in various places.
A foundry owner in Zhejiang did the math and decided to replace it with a domestically produced five-axis machining center. The purchase subsidy plus the depreciation deduction for the old equipment resulted in the actual out-of-pocket cost being less than half of the original price.
Driven by policies, orders from machine tool OEMs are picking up.
The latest statistical bulletin from the China Machine Tool Industry Association shows that from January to April 2026, the output of metal cutting machine tools increased by 13.2% year-on-year, of which the output growth rate of CNC machine tools reached 18.7%.
On the demand side, greater growth comes from emerging tracks.
2026 is the year when the industrialization of humanoid robots accelerates. Domestic humanoid robot shipments are expected to exceed 60,000 units, a year-on-year increase of more than 240%, directly driving strong demand for high-precision CNC machine tools.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is still rising. In April 2026, new energy vehicle sales increased by 38% year-on-year, accounting for 52% of total car sales that month.
New processes and new components such as integrated die-casting, flat wire motors, and silicon carbide modules are all creating new demand for machine tools.
High-prosperity tracks such as aerospace, AI liquid cooling, and medical equipment have extremely high requirements for processing accuracy, consistency, and stability, driving a “qualitative change” in high-end machine tools.
Export side, 2026 1 –
In April, the quantity of China’s machine tool exports dropped by about 19% year-on-year, but the export value increased by 17.5% year-on-year, and the average export price increased significantly by more than 40% year-on-year.
The export structure has changed. The proportion of high value-added products such as five-axis machining centers and CNC precision grinders continues to increase, while the share of traditional low-end machine tools is shrinking.
Domestic machine tools are making a difficult climb from “relying on low prices to gain volume” to “relying on technology”.
However, the 10% – 25% tariff imposed by the United States on Chinese machine tools has not been cancelled, and the EU’s anti-dumping investigation is still ongoing. This has also forced companies to increase the added value of their products.
On the technical side, AI has moved from “concept” to “production line”, and domestic substitution is accelerating.
At the 14th China CNC Machine Tool Exhibition (CCMT2026) held in Shanghai in April this year, AI is no longer a “demonstration prototype” in the exhibition hall, but has been truly integrated into the entire process of equipment operation and maintenance and precision machining.
Hyundai Wia demonstrated a predictive maintenance solution based on 138 sensors and AI algorithms, which can provide early warning of faults 7-14 days in advance and reduce unplanned downtime by more than 60%.
Domestic companies have also come up with their own AI solutions and applied them in fields such as spindle vibration analysis and tool wear monitoring.
The official launch of the domestic industrial master machine forward design platform (IMDP) has filled the gap in the forward design of domestic machine tools.
At present, the localization rate of high-end CNC systems is about 45%, the localization rate of electric spindles is about 45%, the localization rate of high-precision rolling guides and ball screws is still less than 40%, and the self-sufficiency rate of domestic core components is increasing every year.
In the aftermarket, the more sophisticated the equipment, the higher the requirements for maintenance and accessories.
Of the full life cycle cost of a machine tool, procurement cost only accounts for about 30%, and the remaining 70% is use, maintenance, accessories and energy consumption.
The machine tool aftermarket covers a complete set of professional service systems such as parts supply, preventive maintenance, fault diagnosis, accuracy recovery, and green remanufacturing. In the context of the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, it is becoming a key link to ensure the stability of production lines and reduce operating costs.
From policy to market, from technology to service, China’s machine tool industry is undergoing a round of “from the outside to the inside” reshaping.
OEMs are busy delivering goods, core component manufacturers are staking their claim, and AI engineers are training algorithms.
In the vast factory workshop, every machine tool is still running day after day, waiting for a reliable part, a professional maintenance, and a person who can understand the alarm code.
This industry needs innovators who look up to the stars and down-to-earth service providers. Only by working together can the “heart” of the manufacturing industry beat more powerfully.
