Effective April 1, the export tax rebate cancellation policy for photovoltaic products has officially come into effect.
This is another important adjustment to my country’s photovoltaic export fiscal and taxation policy in more than a year after the tax rebate rate was reduced from 13% to 9% in December 2024.
As the policy “window period” closes, the focus of the industry has shifted from short-term considerations of “grabbing exports” to cost transmission, price trends, manufacturer differentiation and the deep reshaping of the global market structure.
Many researchers believe that the cancellation of tax rebates will accelerate the photovoltaic industry’s transformation from low-price involution of “volume increase and price reduction” to high-quality development of “high quality and stable price”. Industry reshuffle and value return are unfolding simultaneously.
Exports in the second quarter will enter an adjustment period.
According to an analysis by TrendForce, a new energy industry research organization, in the first quarter of this year, the export volume of photovoltaic modules will reach 80 to 100 gigawatts, a year-on-year increase of 30% to 60%, covering 30% to 38% of the annual overseas export demand.
Generally speaking, in 2026, the pace of my country’s photovoltaic exports will show obvious phased characteristics. The first quarter will focus on grabbing orders, the second quarter will return to stability, and the third and fourth quarters will gradually recover.
TrendForce Observation pointed out that as the policy officially takes effect, China’s photovoltaic product exports will enter a period of adjustment in the second quarter.
Rising export costs will cause overseas buyers to cool down their willingness to purchase. At the same time, a large number of concentrated shipments in the first quarter will increase inventory in overseas channels, and the market will enter the digestion stage.
In terms of product prices, the transmission effect of policy adjustments has begun to appear.
TrendForce has observed and calculated that the elimination of the 9% export tax rebate is expected to increase the cost of photovoltaic products by 0.06 yuan/watt to 0.07 yuan/watt.
If the price of superimposed raw materials (silver, aluminum, copper, etc.) increases by 0.15 yuan/watt to 0.2 yuan/watt, the total component cost will increase by about 0.21 yuan/watt to 0.27 yuan/watt.
TrendForce Observation believes that in 2026, the price of photovoltaic export products will show a trend of “short-term structural increase and long-term stability and increase”.
Among them, high-efficiency modules (TOPCon, BC modules) are more receptive to price increases due to their technical premium, and the price is expected to be between 0.85 yuan/watt and 0.95 yuan/watt.
Judging from actual market feedback, leading companies have begun to negotiate price adjustments with overseas customers by virtue of their brand and performance advantages, while some manufacturers that rely on low-price competition are facing pressure from order losses.
SMM photovoltaic analyst Chen Jiahui analyzed from the perspective of export structure. Customs statistics show that my country’s exports increased by 19.2% year-on-year in the first two months of this year, among which the “three new items” maintained rapid growth.
In 2025, my country’s module exports were 264.1 GW, cell exports were 107.81 GW, and silicon wafer exports were 38.91 GW. This growth is not only due to the continued recovery of global new energy installed capacity demand, but also directly related to the rush for exports before the tax rebate was cancelled.
With the official implementation of the policy, the export rhythm will shift from “sprint” to “even speed”, and the industry is entering a new stage of cost and value rebalancing.
Underdeveloped countries have become the main force in structural consumption.
The impact of the cancellation of tax rebates on overseas photovoltaic terminal customers is showing the dual characteristics of “short-term fluctuations and long-term benefits”.
TrendForce Observation believes that in the short term, the cancellation of export tax rebates has directly increased the export costs of Chinese photovoltaic products. Coupled with the demand of some manufacturers to pass on costs, the procurement costs of overseas customers have increased in stages, especially in emerging market countries that rely on Chinese components, such as Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia and other regional markets. The increase in project costs may temporarily affect the feasibility of some installed projects.
But in the long term, market prices will return to rationality, and the quality, stability and after-sales service of products purchased by end customers will be significantly improved, avoiding product hazards and later operation and maintenance risks caused by low-price competition.
At the same time, policy adjustments will accelerate the transformation of Chinese photovoltaic companies into comprehensive services of “localized delivery + financing services + operation and maintenance”, and overseas end customers are expected to receive solutions that better suit local needs.
Against the above background, new structural market opportunities are emerging.
Chen Jiahui said that after the export tax rebate is cancelled, part of the 9% cost will be passed on to the module selling price. In the short term, the specific proportion of the buyer and seller will be based on the terms of the contract signed by each company.
In the medium to long term, my country’s photovoltaic industry has a strong say in international trade, and this part of the cost may be fully borne by overseas buyers.
Chen Jiahui estimates that this year, about 15% to 20% of domestic modules will be unable to meet domestic standards due to low power, but these modules happen to be more suitable for overseas power grid conditions.
In addition to being sold to general overseas markets, less developed countries are a more important consumption direction.
Taking Africa as an example, the region’s newly installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to reach 13.1 GW in 2026, with the fastest growth rate in the world.
The local power grid foundation is weak. The electricity access rate in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 50%. The average power grid loss rate in North Africa is nearly twice the global average. Frequent power outages have become the norm.
Low-power components have become a better choice at the current stage because their technical characteristics are highly matched to local power grid conditions, their operation and maintenance threshold is low, and their economics are more realistic.
Chen Jiahui pointed out as an example that from 2023 to 2024, the Kenyan government promoted 3-kilowatt low-power household photovoltaic systems, with a cumulative installation of more than 100,000 households. The system’s grid connection success rate reached 98%, user electricity bills were reduced by 60%, and the investment return cycle is 4.5 years.
In addition, the four Southeast Asian countries also face the problem of power self-sufficiency, and the local power grid can also adapt to low-power components.
“Therefore, after the export tax rebate is cancelled, less developed countries will become the main consumer of low-power components.” Chen Jiahui believes that in the medium to long term, photovoltaic companies that rely on export tax rebate subsidies as their main source of income will face transformation, and the pattern of “low-price competition” in overseas markets will gradually fade. At the same time, they will accelerate the expansion of overseas photovoltaic companies and form new cooperation models with domestic companies.
The logic of the photovoltaic industry has switched from supply and demand to cost logic.
Industry differentiation means “the strong will stay strong and the weak will clear out.”
According to TrendForce’s observation, the cancellation of tax rebates has the most direct and profound impact on photovoltaic manufacturers, further intensifying industry differentiation.
The pattern of “the strong will stay strong and the weak will be eliminated” will become increasingly obvious.
For leading manufacturers with core competitiveness, the cancellation of tax rebates has become an opportunity to consolidate their advantages.
Such companies have technology premiums, vertically integrated production capacity or long-term overseas contracts, and can absorb the pressure of rising export costs through internal cost control, technology upgrades and brand bargaining power.
At the same time, leading companies are more capable of deploying overseas light-asset production bases, optimizing the layout of the global supply chain, and further expanding their market share.
For small and medium-sized photovoltaic manufacturers, the cancellation of tax rebates may become a “life and death test.”
In the short term, some small and medium-sized enterprises may seize the last “window period” through low-price impulse, but in the long term, companies that lack technological advantages and cost control capabilities will eventually be eliminated by the industry reshuffle.
Chen Jiahui pointed out that from the perspective of export product structure, components still dominate, accounting for 67%, and are the core of exports; cells have the fastest growth, accounting for 18%; silicon wafers and polysilicon account for 9% and 4% respectively.
Structural changes are mainly due to the establishment of overseas factories to avoid trade barriers, the expansion of photovoltaic application scenarios, the European energy transformation triggered by geopolitical conflicts, and the phased tax rebate policy. The industry is extending from single component exports to high value-added links.
Chen Jiahui further said that from the perspective of export regional pattern, the traditional European and American markets have become differentiated.
Direct exports to the United States have declined, while high-end and high-efficiency products to the European Union have maintained growth. ASEAN, the Middle East, Africa and other regions have become major increases. Among them, exports to ASEAN have increased by 29.4%, and to Africa have increased by nearly 50%. Market share continues to expand.
At present, my country’s photovoltaic exports have formed a pattern of stabilizing share in Europe and the United States and expanding scale in emerging markets. Emerging markets are becoming the main force in the medium and long term.
In terms of price, TrendForce’s observation and analysis shows that in the long term, price competition will give way to value competition, the industry reshuffle will be basically completed, backward production capacity will gradually be cleared, market concentration will increase, and the price system will tend to be stable, with steady growth becoming the mainstream.
The core driving force for price increases will shift from cost transfer to technology upgrades, product iterations, and value-added services. The global photovoltaic market will enter a healthy development stage of “stable prices and high quality.”
Chen Jiahui finally said that my country has driven the global cost of photovoltaic electricity to drop by more than 80% in the past 10 years by virtue of its photovoltaic module global production capacity accounting for more than 80%, full-chain technology and manufacturing cost advantages, playing the role of core equipment supplier and important promoter in the global energy transformation.
The official implementation of the tax rebate cancellation policy will force the entire industry to abandon low-price involution and focus on technological innovation, product upgrades and service optimization, promote the transformation of the photovoltaic industry to high-end manufacturing, and cultivate more globally competitive Chinese photovoltaic brands.
