Data released by the General Administration of Customs show that in U.S. dollars, China’s exports increased by 19.4% year-on-year in May 2026, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from April; imports increased by 27.4% year-on-year, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from April, showing a good trend of “double growth” in imports and exports.
The global AI investment boom has a significant boost to China’s exports.
In that month, South Korea’s export growth accelerated to 53.2% year-on-year, of which semiconductor exports increased by 169.4% year-on-year, the growth rate setting a record for a single month.
As China’s largest single category of exported goods, chips account for about 9%. The high growth in chip exports in May has significantly boosted overall exports.
In addition, the global manufacturing climate continues to improve.
In May, S&P Global JPMorgan Chase’s global manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 52.6% month-on-month, the highest value since July 2021, and has been in the expansion range for 10 consecutive months.
At the same time, the base number continued to decline in May, and the year-on-year export growth rates in April and May 2025 were 8.0% and 4.7% respectively, which to a certain extent pushed up the year-on-year export readings in May.
From a regional perspective, from January to May, China’s top three export markets were the Association of Southeast Asia, the European Union and the United States.
Among them, exports to ASEAN increased by 20.3% year-on-year, maintaining a high level; exports to the EU increased by 16.4%, and exports to the United States decreased by 2.7% year-on-year.
In addition, from January to May, China’s exports to the Belt and Road region increased by 15.8% year-on-year, and exports to Africa increased by 25.8% year-on-year, both at relatively high levels.
Looking forward to the follow-up export trend, Fed Securities pointed out that exports are still resilient in the short term, and sustainability depends on the prosperity of the AI chain, the sustainability of the recovery of the global manufacturing industry, and changes in external policy disturbances.
On the one hand, the AI industry chain is still booming, which continues to support the export of integrated circuits, servers and related electronic equipment.
On the other hand, the market still has certain expectations for a phased relaxation of Sino-US trade relations. If there are subsequent marginal adjustments to some tariff policies, it will help further reduce the suppression of exports to the United States.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that the export growth rate in June may fall back to around 8.0%, mainly because the Strait of Hormus has been blocked for three months and international oil prices continue to be high, which will further exert a drag on the global economy.
Data show that the new export orders index in the manufacturing PMI index fell by 1.7 percentage points to 48.6% in May, and the impact of slowing external demand on my country’s exports will gradually be reflected.
However, in the short term, the global AI investment boom will continue, and my country’s exports of new energy vehicles and high-tech products will still increase rapidly. In the future, my country’s overall exports will maintain a faster growth rate of more than 5.0%.
Zhang Di, senior macro analyst at China Galaxy Securities, believes that exports this year will still be supported by three aspects.
First, in the short term, global preventive stockpiling will bring about a rush for exports. If subsequent conflicts escalate, the hoarding effect is expected to continue and trigger a second pulse of replenishment. In the short term, the “rush for exports” effect will directly support my country’s exports.
Second, benefiting from energy substitution and supply chain advantages, mid- to long-term demand shifts and creation effects offset the negative impact of energy shocks on exports.
Thanks to abundant alternative energy and my country’s stable industrial production, my country’s leading advantage in the global supply chain is expected to continue.
Third, export diversification continues to advance, and the world’s dependence on China is deepening.
In terms of imports, the import index in the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% in April, breaking through the boom-bust line, and was 49.8% in March.
At the same time, the export boom of electronic products continues to drive related import demand.
Wang Qing said that driven by the high growth in chip exports and the surge in demand for domestic data center construction, chip imports maintained high growth in May.
Currently, chip imports account for nearly 20% of my country’s total imports. The high growth rate of chip imports will significantly push up my country’s overall import growth rate. This is the main reason why the recent import growth rate has exceeded the export growth rate.
In addition, affected by high international crude oil prices and a low base in the same period last year, although my country’s crude oil imports experienced a significant year-on-year negative growth, the crude oil import volume grew rapidly. In May, the crude oil import volume increased by 15.3% year-on-year, and the increase was at a relatively high level.
Wang Qing said, “Based on the price trends of bulk imported commodities such as chips and crude oil, as well as changes in domestic import demand, imports will still maintain double-digit growth in June, but there will be a gradual decline trend in the later period.”
