We have been discussing the smart home track for more than ten years.
From the earliest use of mobile phone apps to remotely control light bulbs, to later shouting “turn on the lights” at the speakers, to now automatic sensor sensing and active service, the technical path has gone through several iterations.
In this marathon, Apple has always been an “outlier.”
Let’s just say it started early. HomeKit was launched in 2014, earlier than many domestic manufacturers.
Call it late. Ten years later, HomeKit devices are still expensive, rare, and niche. HomePod sales are tepid, and business revenue has declined for nine consecutive quarters.
But at the beginning of 2026, everything is changing dramatically.
Apple has just completed the complete migration of HomeKit to the new Apple Home architecture. This is not a simple system update, but a bottom-level reconstruction for the next ten years.
At the same time, the long-rumored HomeHub with screen, HomePod mini 2, smart security product line and even home robots are all on the agenda.
What kind of game does Apple want to play in smart home?
The underlying reconstruction is from “device remote control” to “space operating system”.
In the past, the logic of HomeKit was “control your home with your iPhone.”
You need to pick up the phone, open the Home App, find the device, and click to operate.
This is essentially a digital replica of a physical remote control.
The new architecture completely changes this logic.
The control center has moved from iPhone to Apple TV and HomePod.
These two devices are always at home and always online, maintaining the status of all devices in real time.
The response speed, stability, and offline execution capabilities of automated scenarios have all been qualitatively improved.
The price is that the iPad has been removed from the central list – Apple is forcing users to pay for a true “home brain”.
Fully embracing the Matter protocol is a strategic shift.
Apple has contributed part of its HomeKit technology to the Matter standard, which means that the future smart home ecosystem will no longer be separated from HomeKit devices and other brands.
A socket that supports Matter can be controlled by Apple Home App, Amazon Alexa, and Google Home at the same time.
Apple’s strategic intention is very clear: it is no longer obsessed with controlling hardware, but to be an operating system in the smart home era.
Thread+Matter’s technical base is also complete.
HomePod and Apple TV have built-in Thread border routers, and iPhone 15 Pro and above models integrate Thread chips.
From a technical perspective, Apple has laid the foundation for the Internet of Everything.
But the question also arises: Once the foundation is laid, what kind of house will be built on it?
Hardware Matrix’s 2026 “family bucket” remedial course.
Apple is obviously aware of the embarrassment of “a platform but no hardware”.
According to confirmation from Bloomberg Gurman and other sources, 2026 will be a big year for Apple’s smart home hardware.
The first to bear the brunt is the HomeHub home hub.
This is a wall-mounted or desktop device with a 7-inch screen, equipped with an A18 chip and Apple Intelligence, supports Face ID, and the screen can automatically turn to track the user.
Its positioning is not a “speaker with screen”, but an intelligent interactive panel and control center for the whole house.
You can understand it as a Siri who is always at home, always online, and always watching your needs.
HomePod mini 2 will be updated simultaneously with the S10 chip, and the price will remain at $99.
This is equivalent to the “earpiece” and “mouthpiece” of Apple’s smart home.
There will also be a security product line at the end of the year: indoor cameras and smart doorbells that support HomeKit Secure Video end-to-end encryption and integrate Face ID.
By 2027, plans for home robots have also surfaced.
After this combination, Apple finally completed the hardware puzzle from “brain” (HomeHub) to “nerve” (HomePod/Apple TV) to “sensory” (cameras, door locks, sensors).
But the problem is that this set of hardware is still “Apple-style” with high pricing and high barriers to entry.
The ultimate evolution of AI brain Siri.
Hardware is just the body, AI is the soul.
Apple is rebuilding Siri with a large language model.
The capabilities of the new generation of Siri will include: personal context tracking (remembering what you said last time), screen awareness (understanding what you are looking at), and deep application integration (performing cross-step tasks between multiple apps).
When this set of capabilities is combined with home scenes, the imagination opens up: you say “my hands are dirty”, and Siri automatically turns on the kitchen faucet (if the faucet supports it) and adjusts the water to the appropriate temperature.
You say “the baby is asleep” and Siri automatically dims the lights in the house, turns off the TV, and turns on the white noise in the nursery.
The system learns that someone in your house gets up at 7 o’clock every morning, and automatically adjusts the bedroom light to a warm 10% brightness at 6:55, while playing a soft news broadcast.
This is the transition from “control device” to “environmental computing”.
You no longer need to give orders to any devices, the home itself becomes an intelligent body.
The ultimate vision Casa plan and “invisible home”.
According to supply chain sources, Apple is also developing a revolutionary project code-named “Casa.”
The core concept is: turn the entire home environment into a “giant iPhone”.
In future Apple smart homes, hardware will be “hidden” in building modules – chips and sensors will be embedded in wall sockets, ceilings, and skirting boards.
Millimeter-wave radar can sense human body position, posture and even breathing frequency; high-precision environmental sensors monitor VOC, CO2, temperature and humidity; micro-lidar scans spatial structures.
You can set a virtual “space anchor” in the space through the AR interface – saying “good morning” to the direction of the coffee table in the living room will trigger the morning mode; saying “good night” to the bedside in the bedroom will prepare the whole house for sleep.
All data in this system is processed on local edge computing nodes (driven by H-series chips) to protect privacy to the greatest extent.
It can learn the family’s daily routine and adjust light, sound, temperature, and air quality adaptively.
At this stage, you no longer “use” the smart home, you just “live” in the smart home.
Realistic dilemma: Can Apple win the Chinese market?
The vision is beautiful, but back to reality, Apple’s smart home faces extremely severe challenges in the Chinese market.
The contradiction between ecological closure and high pricing: HomeKit certification is costly and complicated, resulting in only 12 third-party devices on the Chinese official website.
Xiaomi has thousands of models, and Huawei’s HarmonyOS devices have exceeded 800 million.
If an Apple user wants to equip a whole-house smart device, he or she has to spend several times the price to buy an imported brand, or endure extremely limited category choices.
The lack of the “People and Cars Family” ecosystem: Xiaomi has a “People and Cars Family Ecosystem”, Huawei has Hongmeng Cockpit, and car companies such as Lideal and BYD are also rapidly integrating.
The progress of Apple’s car project is unclear, and CarPlay’s voice in the smart cockpit era has been significantly weakened.
Home and car cannot be linked, which is a huge shortcoming in the competition in 2026.
Price sensitivity and installation threshold: Chinese users have become accustomed to Xiaomi sockets priced at 99 yuan and Xiaomi gateway priced at 199 yuan.
A HomePod mini from Apple costs 749 yuan, and a smart socket that supports HomeKit easily costs 200 to 300 yuan.
The modular building hardware in the Casa plan requires the intervention of electricians and the renovation of old houses, making it difficult to popularize it.
The double-edged sword of privacy: Apple’s end-to-end encryption and local processing are indeed differentiating advantages, but for a home that can sense breathing, gestures, and conversations, even if the data does not leave the house, it will still trigger the “black box fear” of some users.
Three things Apple must do to break the situation.
If Apple wants to really make a difference in China’s smart home market, it needs to make the following adjustments: First, price reduction and ecological opening.
If the price of HomeHub exceeds $300, it will be difficult to break out of the geek circle.
At the same time, the threshold for HomeKit certification must be significantly lowered, and local home appliance giants such as Haier, Midea, and TCL must be proactively embraced, and the “Matter Certification Acceleration Program” can even be considered.
Second, make up for the closed loop of “People, Cars and Homes”.
Since there are many difficulties in manufacturing a complete vehicle, it is better to accelerate the in-depth evolution of CarPlay – making the in-car screen an extended control center for the home, automatically turning on the air conditioner, lights, and water heater before arriving home.
Or in-depth strategic cooperation with a Chinese new energy vehicle company.
Third, AI capabilities are truly implemented.
Don’t stop at “ask Siri the weather.”
AI in home scenes needs to be insensitive, proactive, and contextually aware.
This requires training on a large amount of real household data, and Apple’s privacy policy limits this – this is a difficult problem that requires wisdom to balance.
Conclusion: Apple can occupy a place in the high-end smart home market in China, but it is difficult to become mainstream among the masses.
It has unique advantages: chip computing power, ecological stickiness, brand premium, and the core – trust assets of privacy protection.
For those users who value data security, have sufficient budget, and use Apple’s home appliances extensively, Apple smart home is still an irreplaceable choice.
But in the broader mass market, the ecological barriers built by Xiaomi, Huawei, and Haier are already strong enough.
The tension between Apple’s “closed elegance” and the “open cost-effectiveness” of the Chinese market will be difficult to resolve in the short term.
The next battle in smart homes will not be about who has connected more devices, but who can understand your life better.
Apple has technology, aesthetics, and ecology, but it needs to prove that it can understand the real needs of a Chinese family.
This may be the biggest challenge and the most anticipated aspect.
