According to news on May 18, the global cross-border e-commerce field is currently undergoing an unprecedented dual baptism of supervision and market.
With the disruptive reconstruction of the underlying algorithm of the platform, the re-escalation of EU tax barriers, and the sudden surge in global logistics freight rates, the industry has completely bid farewell to the dividend period of “barbaric growth” in the past, and has fully entered the deep-water area with “compliance and intensive cultivation” as its core competitiveness.
At the same time, the implementation of the new domestic export return policy has also opened a new policy window for overseas companies to optimize their inventory structure and reduce trial and error costs.
The current cross-border overseas industry is at a crossroads of transformation.
On the one hand, the compliance threshold in the external market is rising at an unprecedented speed. From Amazon’s strict control of the price system to the EU’s cancellation of small package tax-free bonuses, all indicate the end of the extensive distribution model; on the other hand, the sharp rise in logistics costs has formed a sharp contrast with the favorable return policy.
For cross-border sellers, how to use policy dividends to achieve refined operations under the double attack of high freight prices and tightened rules will be the key to determining whether they can survive this cycle.
The following is an in-depth review and interpretation of this week’s core trends in the industry.
Platform Game: Amazon’s “Price Anchor” Reset and Inventory Cleaning
Pricing rules are “hard landing” and bid farewell to the era of “pseudo-discounts”.
Starting from May 18, Amazon has officially implemented a new reference price calculation mechanism.
The new rules clearly state that if a seller has had a promotional price lower than the non-promotional median price for more than 45 days in the past 90 days, the system will force the “regular price” benchmark to be lowered.
This algorithm adjustment directly cuts off the operating paths that overdraw brand value such as “long-term coupons” and “high-frequency flash sales”.
In addition, the AI-generated price history chart was launched simultaneously, requiring the underlined price to be based on real transaction records within 90 days, completely blocking the room for false original prices.
FBA inventory “lives and dies at the speed of life”, and over-age clearing is fully launched.
With the implementation of the first round of mandatory cleaning on May 6 (European Station) and May 14 (U.S. and Canadian Station), Amazon has unprecedentedly increased its efforts to clean up overaged inventory (more than 270 days old).
For low-value sellers, the return freight may far exceed the disposal cost, which forces companies to complete the “self-rescue” or “stop loss” of inventory in advance in subsequent rounds in June, August, and September.
Logistics warning: Freight prices surged by 9.5% in a single week, and cost pressures return
Asia, Europe and the United States routes are collectively “high fever”.
In mid-May, leading shipping companies such as Maersk and CMA CGM collectively raised freight rates.
Affected by the surge in cargo volume and the shortage of space in Southeast Asia and the West American route, the SCFI composite index surged 9.5% in a single week, reaching 2140.66 points.
Among them, the freight rate on the US East route is close to US$7,200/FEU.
This wave of price increases that are “not slow in the off-season” is seriously squeezing the profit margins of low-value, large-volume commodities, and locking in space during the peak season is imminent.
Tax changes: The EU’s “end of tax exemption” and Brazil’s “dividend trap”
Countdown to the EU’s new deal: the 150-euro tax exemption will be canceled starting from July 1.
With only a month left before the implementation of the new policy on July 1, 2026, the EU will cancel the tariff exemption for packages under 150 euros and impose a temporary fixed tariff of 3 euros per item on different categories.
This means that the low-value distribution model will face a complete “price recalculation” in Europe, and the transfer of customs clearance responsibilities on the platform also requires sellers to accelerate the deployment of compliant overseas warehouses.
The Brazilian market: a world of ice and fire.
Although the Brazilian government signed a decree on May 12 exempting imported goods under $50 from federal taxes, releasing short-term dividends, the normal collection of ICMS sales taxes in various states, combined with the largest corruption case in history recently exposed by Rio Customs (involving 17,000 false declarations), indicates that customs clearance review will be comprehensively tightened in the future.
Although there are opportunities for low-price hot products, tax entity certification and compliance declaration have become the ticket.
Positive policies: Four departments jointly issued a document to “significantly reduce” return shipping costs
New export return shipping policy: Trial and error costs are significantly reduced.
For cross-border e-commerce exports of unsaleable or returned goods (excluding food), the four departments jointly announced that if they are returned to the country in their original condition within 6 months from the date of export, import duties and value-added tax will be exempted, and export duties levied will be refunded.
This policy significantly reduces the company’s trial and error costs, but it also requires sellers to establish a systematic return data file to cope with regulatory inspections.
List of Seller Response Strategies
Faced with the above drastic changes, companies need to immediately initiate the following strategic adjustments:
Operation level: Restructure the price system, strictly control the number of promotional days within 90 days to ≤45 days, and avoid price benchmark drops.
Inventory level: Take the initiative to process inventory of more than 270 days before multiple rounds of forced liquidations at the end of June, August and September.
Logistics level: In view of the high freight rates in the East United States, it is recommended to consider the alternative plan of entry through the West United States port + truck distribution to lock in peak season capacity in advance.
Tax level: Recalculate the cost of low-value goods in the European station, and evaluate the strategy of transfer or price increase; seize the window of Brazilian federal tax reduction and exemption, and simultaneously complete the registration of tax entities in each state.
Risk control level: Establish return data files, use the 6-month window period to optimize the return process and reduce losses.
This round of industry reshuffle in May 2026 is essentially a stress test of the market’s “compliance capabilities.”
Under the double attack of high freight rates and strict algorithms, only companies with refined operational capabilities and compliance awareness can survive the cycle in the stock game.
The cross-border e-commerce industry in May 2026 is in an important transformation period.
Driven by the dual drive of globalization and digitalization, the industry is facing challenges brought by policy adjustments and opportunities brought by technological innovation.
Only those companies that can quickly adapt to changes, actively embrace innovation, and adhere to compliance operations can stand out in the fierce market competition and achieve sustainable development.
In the future, the cross-border e-commerce industry will continue to develop in a more standardized, intelligent, and localized direction.
Enterprises need to embrace changes with a more open mind, respond to challenges with a more professional attitude, and jointly promote the development of the industry to a higher level.
