The tax refund is gone, but there are more orders.
In the first four months of 2026, China’s cumulative export volume of photovoltaic products increased by approximately 43% year-on-year.
Export tax rebates were officially canceled on April 1, but the order speed of overseas buyers increased instead of falling – the cost-effectiveness of China’s photovoltaics has caused the policy tools to lose their leverage effect.
Data can best explain the problem.
Cumulative exports from January to April increased by 43% year-on-year. Looking at April alone, component exports to the Southeast Asian market surged by 267% year-on-year.
In Yiwu, Zhejiang, the cell production line of a photovoltaic company is operating at full capacity. This batch of goods is shipped directly to Europe, and overseas orders have been scheduled for the next quarter.
The deeper changes are on the technical side.
In 2026, new global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to exceed 550GW, N-type battery shipments account for more than 80%, and PERC production capacity is being cleared at an accelerated pace.
Chinese companies no longer rely solely on price wars, but use conversion efficiency and technological content to seize the market.
Leading companies are also accelerating the construction of overseas factories. Localized production capacity has been established in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and North America, which not only avoids trade barriers but is also close to the end market.
Southeast Asia has become the largest growth engine.
Why is Southeast Asia exploding?
ASEAN countries’ own energy transformation is accelerating. Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia have all raised their photovoltaic installation targets. In addition, Chinese companies have matured local channels and after-sales networks, so orders will naturally flow here.
But there are also hidden worries.
The pressure of overcapacity in the industry has not been eliminated, component prices are still hovering at low levels, and the cash flow of some small and medium-sized enterprises is under pressure.
External constraints such as the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism and US tariff barriers are also continuing to be tightened.
However, the general trend will not change: China’s photovoltaic industry is shifting from selling more to making stable profits, and moving from scale expansion to quality and efficiency.
When the world’s annual installed capacity of 550GW becomes the norm, the ones that can really survive are not those with the largest production capacity, but those with the strongest technology and the deepest layout.
In future market competition, Chinese photovoltaic companies need to continuously improve their technical strength and innovation capabilities, and optimize their industrial layout to cope with various challenges and achieve sustainable development.
At the same time, the government and industry associations should also play an active role in guiding enterprises to rationally plan production capacity, strengthen international cooperation, and jointly promote China’s photovoltaic industry to a higher level.
