As of April 6, 2026, Weichai Power’s stock price was 25.10 yuan, with a total market value of 218.7 billion yuan.
As China’s leading and globally influential multinational industrial equipment group and a global leader in power systems, it focuses on seven core businesses: powertrain and key components, commercial vehicles, agricultural equipment, construction machinery, smart logistics, marine transportation equipment, and electric power energy, with the powertrain business as its basic business (revenue accounting for over 43%).
Relying on the synergy advantages of the entire industry chain, top power technology barriers, global layout and high-quality customer resources, benefiting from the recovery of commercial vehicles, the acceleration of the construction of AI computing power centers, the increase in large-bore business and the advancement of new energy transformation, the performance will grow steadily in 2025, and the quality of profits will continue to be optimized. In the next four years, it will rely on large-bore business expansion, power energy layout, overseas market expansion and multi-business collaboration to achieve sustained high-quality growth.
The first part is performance review, growth outlook and valuation calculation in the next four years.
In 2025, Weichai Power will benefit from the recovery of commercial vehicles, the increase in the volume of large-bore engines, the expansion of overseas markets and the collaborative efforts of multiple businesses. Its performance will achieve steady growth, the quality of its profits will continue to be optimized, and its core competitiveness will continue to be consolidated.
The operating income for the whole year was 231.809 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.47%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.931 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.14%. The core was affected by the slight decline of 1.62 percentage points year-on-year in the gross profit margin of the powertrain segment. The intensified industry competition caused slight pressure on profits. However, its high value-added business performed well and the overall profit structure continued to upgrade.
Among them, the operating income in the first three quarters of 2025 was 170.571 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.878 billion yuan. Single-quarter revenue continued to increase quarter-on-quarter. In the fourth quarter, benefiting from the peak season of commercial vehicles and the accelerated delivery of large-bore products, profitability stability continued to increase.
The company’s asset status is stable. As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, total assets are 364.325 billion yuan, total liabilities are 232.686 billion yuan, total shareholders’ equity is 131.639 billion yuan, and the asset-liability ratio is 63.86%, which is within the reasonable range of the industry. The net cash flow from operating activities is 15.015 billion yuan. The cash flow contains high gold content. It has sufficient funds to support R&D investment and business expansion, and has strong risk resistance capabilities.
The core advantages are outstanding. As a global leader in industrial equipment, it has a national-level enterprise technology center with an R&D intensity of 6%, which is at the leading level in the global industry. It has mastered a number of core technologies. The world’s first 5MW high-speed diesel power generation product 20M61 liter power ranks first in the world, and it ranks first in the heavy truck engine market.
The market share reaches 34%, ranking first in the industry. The market share of large-bore engines, data center backup power supplies and other products ranks among the top in the world. It is deeply integrated with domestic and foreign leading manufacturers of commercial vehicles and construction machinery. It has a complete global layout and a brand value of 83.048 billion yuan, ranking second in China’s machinery and equipment manufacturing field.
The next 4 years (2026 –
2029), relying on the recovery of the commercial vehicle industry, the large-scale expansion of the large-bore business, the explosion of the power energy business, overseas market expansion and multi-business synergy advantages, Weichai Power will achieve sustained high-quality growth and show a step-by-step upward trend.
The company’s sales revenue in 2026 is expected to reach 250.4-259.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%-12%. The demand for large-bore engines and data center backup power supplies continues to explode, and the power and energy business is accelerating. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 12.80-13.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%-26.2%, in line with the average level predicted by institutions.
In 2027, the volume of new energy power products will increase, and overseas market sales will continue to grow, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 15.50-16.80 billion yuan; in 2028, the contribution of smart logistics and marine transportation equipment business will increase significantly, and the synergy effect of the entire industry chain will be highlighted, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 185.0-185.0 billion yuan.
20.0 billion yuan; in 2029, multiple businesses will be fully developed, global market share will be further increased, high-end, intelligent, and green transformation will achieve remarkable results, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 22.00-23.50 billion yuan.
The core growth drivers are the increase in large-bore business, the explosion in demand for backup power in data centers, the recovery of commercial vehicles, the expansion of power energy business and the deepening of globalization.
The core logic of the valuation of the industrial equipment industry takes into account the dual attributes of industry stability and growth. The core uses PE (price-to-earnings ratio) valuation, combined with technical strength, global layout, customer resources and emerging business potential to assist in calculations. The reasonable PE range (2026) is 18.0-22.0 times.
The current static PE of Weichai Power (calculated based on net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025 is 10.931 billion yuan) is about 19.9 times; the dynamic PE in 2026 is about 15.8-17.1 times. Combined with the compound growth rate of net profit in the next four years of about 18.0%-23.0%, the corresponding PEG is about 0.70-
0.95, the valuation is in a reasonably low range. With the increase in the large-bore business and the explosion of the power energy business in the long term, the valuation has room for significant improvement.
Based on calculations based on industry trends, global industrial equipment leading advantages and performance growth potential, the reasonable valuation corresponds to a dynamic PE of approximately 18.0-22.0 times in 2026, corresponding to a reasonable valuation range of 230.4-303.6 billion yuan; the neutral target price is 28.0-33.5 yuan, with 11.6%-33.5% upside potential compared to the current stock price; the conservative target price is 26.5 yuan, and the optimistic target price is 36.0 yuan.
The current valuation is in line with expectations for commercial vehicle recovery and emerging business growth, and is supported by technical barriers and global advantages. As the large-bore business scales and the power energy business is implemented, the valuation will gradually be optimized. However, we need to be wary of the callback risks of lower-than-expected demand for commercial vehicles, slow release of large-bore product capacity, intensified industry competition, continued decline in gross profit margin, and macroeconomic fluctuations.
The second part is the predictions of the company by domestic and foreign research institutions.
As of April 6, 2026, domestic and foreign research institutions are focusing on Weichai Power’s large-bore business volume, data center backup power demand, commercial vehicle recovery and electric energy business progress. Most institutions are optimistic, and differences focus on the performance growth rate and the pace of emerging business implementation.
Domestic institutions mainly conduct research and reports from securities companies, and many mainstream securities companies are optimistic about the company’s leading advantages and the growth potential of its large-bore business.
CICC gave the company an “outperform” rating, optimistic about the rise in volume and price of the large-bore business and the recovery dividends of commercial vehicles; CITIC Securities gave a “buy” rating, recognizing the high added value of the large-bore business and the potential of the power energy business; GF Securities gave an “overweight” rating, focusing on the growth of commercial vehicle exports and multi-business synergy.
In addition, many small and medium-sized securities firms are paying attention to the company’s long-term development. A total of 12 institutions have issued research reports in the past six months, predicting that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2029 will generally be in the range of 21.5-23.8 billion yuan, and the average target price of institutions is about 31.2 yuan. At the same time, they also pointed out risks such as fluctuations in commercial vehicle demand and declining gross profit margins. Some institutions are optimistic about the long-term growth potential brought by its global leading position and emerging businesses.
Foreign institutions focus on the recovery of global commercial vehicles, demand for large-bore engines, Weichai Power’s global layout and technological advantages.
Goldman Sachs gave the company a “buy” rating, optimistic about the explosive demand for data center backup power and the elasticity of large-bore business growth; Morgan Stanley gave the company an “overweight” rating, focusing on cyclical fluctuations in the commercial vehicle industry and changes in gross profit margins; UBS gave an “overweight” rating, recognizing the value of technical barriers and globalization.
The core consensus of the organization is that Weichai Power, as a global leader in industrial equipment and power systems, has strong technical barriers, a complete industry chain layout, high-quality global customer resources and a clear path for emerging business expansion, and has deeply benefited from the recovery of commercial vehicles and large-bore
With increased business volume, accelerated data center construction, expansion of power and energy business and deepening of globalization, the performance in 2025 will be stable, the profit structure will continue to be optimized, and sustained high-quality growth will be achieved in the next four years. The large-bore business and power and energy business will become the core growth engines, and the long-term investment value will be outstanding.
The core differences among institutions are mainly reflected in three aspects: performance growth, valuation judgment and risk concerns.
First, there are differences in performance growth rates. Domestic institutions’ growth forecasts for 2026 are concentrated at 18% – 26%, while overseas institutions are concentrated at 15% –
23%. The differences are mainly due to differences in judgments on the pace of large-bore product capacity release and the growth rate of data center backup power demand. Second, there are differences in valuation judgments. Some institutions believe that the current valuation does not match leading attributes and emerging business potential, and there is large room for improvement. A few institutions have pointed out the risk of valuation suppression caused by cyclical fluctuations in commercial vehicles. Third, there are differences in risk concerns. Domestic institutions are concerned about the decline in gross profit margins and the release of large-bore production capacity is less than expected. Overseas institutions are more concerned about fluctuations in global commercial vehicle demand, supply chain restructuring and technology iteration risks.
Risk warning: This article calculates based on public data and consistent expectations of institutions. Commercial vehicle demand is lower than expected, slow release of large-bore product production capacity, intensified industry competition, continued decline in gross profit margin, global supply chain restructuring, macroeconomic fluctuations and technology iteration risks may affect performance and does not constitute investment advice.
