In 2026, the beginning of the “15th Five-Year Plan”, China’s economy is shifting from a traditional growth model to a new stage driven by new quality productivity.
The hot spot is no longer just conceptual hype, but a track that combines strong policy support, hard technological breakthroughs, and real market demand.
Ordinary people want to seize the dividends of the times, and companies want to lay out future growth points. It is enough to understand these ten major trends.
1. The entire AI industry chain: from money-burning hype to full profitability, the most certain outlet
2026 is the turning point for the commercialization of AI. It is no longer a large-model “arms race”, but an explosive period of full-scenario penetration + profit realization.
In terms of policy, the “AI + Manufacturing” special action has been fully promoted, with hundreds of billions of fiscal funds supporting computing infrastructure and industry applications; technically, the capabilities of multi-modal large models have changed qualitatively, client-side Agent intelligence has been implemented, and AI has changed from “usable” to “easy to use”; in terms of demand, enterprises are in urgent need of cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and C-side AI mobile phones and AI assistants are popularized. In 2030, the scale of China’s AI market will exceed 5 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 30%-40%.
Core opportunities include upstream computing power (the most scarce), midstream models and technologies (high barriers), and downstream applications (the most practical).
Pitfall reminder: Be wary of the concept of “pseudo-AI”. Projects that have no actual implementation scenarios and cannot reduce costs are all hype.
Focus on AI application companies that have accumulated industry data and can directly create value.
2. Humanoid robots/embodied intelligence: 2026, the first year of commercialization, opens a trillion-dollar blue ocean
2024-2025 is the “verification period” of humanoid robots, and 2026 officially enters the first year of commercialization.
The core breakthrough lies in embodied intelligence – robots are no longer pre-programmed mechanical arms, but “intelligent agents” that can understand natural language, perceive complex environments, and make decisions autonomously.
In terms of policy, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has listed humanoid robots as an emerging pillar industry and the key layout of the “15th Five-Year Plan”; in the market, the four major scenarios of industrial manufacturing, commercial services, home care, and special operations are just about to explode. The global embodied intelligence market will have a compound growth rate of 73% in the next five years and will reach 238.8 billion yuan in 2030.
Core components (the neck-stuck link), complete machine manufacturing (scene implementation), algorithms and systems (soul core) are the key links.
High cost, short battery life, and insufficient stability are the three current pain points.
In 2026, the focus will be on cost reduction and scenario scaling. Companies that can solve these two problems will stand out.
3. New energy storage and virtual power plants: the urgent need for energy transformation, AI computing power “power bank”
Under the “dual carbon” goal, the biggest problem with new energy grid integration is intermittency and volatility, energy storage is the only solution; at the same time, the power consumption of AI computing power centers has surged, and global computing power consumption will exceed that of a medium-sized country in 2026. Energy storage + virtual power plants have become a “rigid need” to ensure energy stability.
In terms of policy, the new equipment update policy clearly supports the upgrading of energy storage facilities, industrial and commercial energy storage subsidies have been increased, and virtual power plants have been integrated into the power grid dispatching system. In the market, the proportion of global green power will exceed 50% for the first time in 2026, the installed energy storage capacity will increase by 60% year-on-year, and the virtual power plant market size will exceed 200 billion yuan.
New batteries (technology iteration), industrial and commercial/residential energy storage (high growth), and virtual power plants (energy brains) are the main aspects.
Energy storage is not about “selling batteries”, the core is energy management services.
Only companies that can provide integrated solutions of “hardware + software + operation and maintenance” can make long-term profits; companies that simply sell batteries will fall into a price war.
4. Low-altitude economy: Policies are fully relaxed, and the trillion-dollar market “takes off”
2026 is the first year for the large-scale low-altitude economy to explode. The core driver is policy loosening + mature scenarios + technological breakthroughs.
In terms of policy, low-altitude airspace reform has been fully implemented, airspace below 2,000 meters has been opened nationwide, flight approvals for drones and eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft) have been simplified, and subsidies have been increased; technically, battery energy density has increased, autonomous driving technology has
The technology is mature and flight safety has been greatly improved; in the market, the four major scenarios of logistics and distribution, air commuting, cultural tourism and emergency rescue are just about to break out. China’s low-altitude economic market will reach 500 billion yuan in 2026 and exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2030.
eVTOL (air taxi), industrial drones (the most practical), and infrastructure (supporting rigid needs) are key areas.
The low-altitude economy involves three core issues: safety control, airworthiness certification, and airspace coordination, and policies are still being improved.
Focus on companies that have obtained airworthiness certification, have the ability to implement scenarios, and work closely with local governments, and avoid purely conceptual speculation targets.
5. Synthetic biology/biomanufacturing: the core of green transformation, subverting traditional industries
Synthetic biology is the intersection of “green manufacturing + life sciences” and is called the “third biotechnology revolution”.
The core logic is to use cell factories to replace traditional chemicals and produce high value-added, low-carbon and environmentally friendly products, which is in line with the “double carbon” goal and industrial upgrading needs.
In terms of policy, the “15th Five-Year Plan” lists biomanufacturing as one of the seven future industries. Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued a document to support it, and financial funds provide key support. In the market, the total scale of the biomanufacturing industry has approached 1 trillion yuan, and it is expected to create a value of 30 trillion US dollars in 2050. The commercialization of bio-aviation fuel (SAF), bio-based materials, synthetic drugs and other fields is accelerating.
Bio-based materials (replacing traditional chemicals), synthetic drugs and medical beauty (high added value), and bioenergy (double carbon rigid demand) are the main directions.
The threshold for synthetic biology technology is extremely high, involving technologies in multiple fields such as gene editing, cell culture, and fermentation engineering. The research and development cycle is long and the investment is large.
There is a big gap between domestic companies and international giants. In 2026, we will focus on companies that have mastered core strains, have large-scale production capabilities, and clear downstream application scenarios.
6. Silver Economy: The aging population has urgent needs and strong policy support
China has entered a deeply aging society. The number of people over 60 years old will reach 320 million in 2026, accounting for 22.8% of the total population, and the demand for elderly care has exploded.
In terms of policy, the new equipment update policy has added support for the equipment update of elderly care institutions, increased subsidies for installing elevators in old communities, expanded long-term care insurance pilots, and focused fiscal funds to support the construction of the elderly care service system. In the market, the silver economy covers the four major fields of elderly care services, age-appropriate products, health care, and elderly culture and tourism. The market size will reach 8 trillion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 15%, making it the most certain rigid demand track.
Elderly care services (rigid demand), aging products (high growth), and elderly health care (high added value) are the main sectors.
The elderly care industry faces difficulties in making profits, a shortage of talents, and uneven service quality.
In 2026, we will focus on elderly care service companies with light asset operations, chain expansion, and intelligent empowerment, as well as product companies with cost-effective products and accurate aging-friendly designs.
7. High-end semiconductors/domestic substitution: independent and controllable rigid demand, policy + market dual drive
The global chip supply chain is restructured, independent and controllable has become a national strategy, and domestic substitution of high-end semiconductors has entered an accelerated period.
In terms of policy, the large fund has invested more than 300 billion yuan in the third phase, focusing on supporting the research and development of high-end chips, semiconductor equipment, and materials, and increasing tax incentives and subsidies. In the market, demand for automotive electronics, industrial semiconductors, and AI chips has exploded. The scale of China’s semiconductor market will reach 1.2 trillion yuan in 2026. The domestic substitution rate has increased from 15% to 25%, and breakthroughs in high-end processes (7nm and below) are imminent.
Car-grade chips (high growth), semiconductor equipment/materials (stuck), and AI chips (computing core) are key parts.
High-end semiconductor technology barriers are high, R&D investment is large, and the cycle is long. There is a clear gap between domestic companies and international giants (TSMC, Samsung, Intel).
In 2026, we will focus on companies with core technologies, sustained R&D investment, and stable downstream customers, and avoid low-end homogeneous competition targets.
8. Science and Technology Services/Achievements Transformation: Innovation drives rigid needs, and policies support the entire chain
China’s economy has shifted from “factor-driven” to “innovation-driven.” Science and technology services and achievement transformation are the key links connecting scientific research and industry, and policies support the entire chain.
In terms of policy, the State Council’s “Opinions on Promoting Capacity Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Industry” clearly strengthens the support for scientific and technological services, supports the construction of incubators, pilot platforms, and technology transfer institutions, and strengthens the protection of intellectual property rights. In the market, corporate innovation needs have exploded. The size of the scientific and technological service market will reach 5 trillion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 20%. The four major areas of intellectual property, R&D and design, inspection and testing, and achievement transformation are experiencing high growth.
Intellectual property services (high barriers), R&D and design services (rigorously needed), pilot testing and achievement transformation (key links) are the main aspects.
Technology services are the “lubricant” of the innovation ecosystem. They may seem inconspicuous, but in fact they determine innovation efficiency.
In 2026, we will focus on technology service companies that are deeply involved in subdivided fields, have strong professional capabilities, and outstanding resource integration capabilities, and have significant long-term value.
9. AI+ Manufacturing (Industrial Intelligence): The core of industrial upgrading, an urgent need to reduce costs and increase efficiency
Manufacturing is the pillar of the national economy, and AI+ manufacturing is the core path for industrial upgrading, which is strongly promoted by policies.
In terms of policy, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s “Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing” special action has been fully implemented, and plans for stabilizing growth of ten key industries have been introduced. Financial funds have supported the intelligent transformation of enterprises, and subsidies for equipment updates have been increased. In the market, manufacturing companies are in urgent need of cost reduction, efficiency improvement, quality improvement and upgrading. In 2026, China’s installed capacity of industrial robots will reach 400,000 units, the industrial AI penetration rate will increase from 12% to 25%, and the market size will exceed 800 billion yuan.
Industrial robots (automation core), industrial software (brain core), and intelligent sensors (perception core) are the main links.
AI+ manufacturing is not about “buying equipment and installing systems”. The core is business process reconstruction + data-driven decision-making.
In 2026, we will focus on industrial intelligent companies that understand the industry and can provide integrated solutions of “hardware + software + consulting + operation and maintenance”, and avoid pure equipment sales targets.
10. Cross-border e-commerce + overseas services: a new engine for foreign trade, dividends from globalization
China’s manufacturing industry has overcapacity, and going overseas is the only way out; the penetration rate of global e-commerce has increased, and cross-border e-commerce has become a new engine for foreign trade.
In terms of policy, the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone has been expanded, export tax rebates have been accelerated, overseas warehouse construction subsidies have been facilitated, cross-border payments have been facilitated, and companies have been fully supported to go overseas. In the market, China’s cross-border e-commerce import and export scale will reach 2.5 trillion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 25%. Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Europe have exploded, and independent websites, live broadcast e-commerce, and social e-commerce have become mainstream.
Cross-border e-commerce platform/independent station (core transaction), overseas supply chain services (rigid demand), and brand overseas services (high added value) are the main contents.
Cross-border e-commerce going overseas is not about “selling goods at low prices”. The core is branding + localization + supply chain optimization.
In 2026, we will focus on overseas companies with product research and development capabilities, strong brand awareness, and localized operations, and avoid sellers with low prices and no core competitiveness.
The above ten major outlets cover the five major fields of technology, manufacturing, energy, consumption, and services, and are all in line with the three core logics of policy support, technological breakthroughs, and market rigid demand.
There is no permanent outlet, only unchanging trends – new productivity, green and low-carbon, independent and controllable, aging population, globalization. Only by understanding the trends can we seize the dividends.
