In 2026, the tire industry will face a complex market environment.
From the perspective of market demand, demand in the tire industry continues to grow, and the import and export structure has changed under the influence of policies.
In 2025, the global tire market demand will increase by 1.4% year-on-year to 1.89 billion units, of which all-steel tire matching will increase by 6% year-on-year, semi-steel tire matching will increase by 2.2% year-on-year, all-steel tire replacement will increase by 2.6% year-on-year, and semi-steel tire replacement will increase by 0.8% year-on-year.
my country’s tire export performance has been somewhat differentiated.
In 2025, the export volume of passenger tires decreased by 2% year-on-year to 340 million units. The export volume of truck and bus tires continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 3% to 130 million units. In the first quarter of 2026, the export volume of passenger car tires increased by 3.8% year-on-year to 87.7 million units, and the export volume of truck and bus tires increased by 4.5% year-on-year to 31.06 million units.
From the perspective of different markets, the cumulative number of imported passenger tires in the U.S. market in 2025 will be 175 million, a year-on-year increase of 3%, of which supply from Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia will account for 41%; the number of imported truck and bus tires will be 61.55 million, a year-on-year increase of 5%, of which supply from Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia will account for 55%.
The import volume of passenger tires in the EU market increased by 8% year-on-year to 156 million units in 2025. Although an anti-dumping investigation was launched against my country, the proportion of imports from China in that year was still as high as 61%. In 2026, affected by the advancement of EU anti-dumping investigations and potential retroactive tariffs, 1 –
In February, the EU’s cumulative imports of passenger tires fell 29% year-on-year to 16.59 million units, of which the number imported from China dropped 63% year-on-year to 5.3 million units, and the number imported from Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia reached 3.08 million units.
From the perspective of import structure, the share of imports from China dropped to 30% in February 2026, while the share of Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia quickly increased to 21%.
The revenue of the tire segment has grown steadily, but net profit has declined.
According to Shenwan chemical industry classification statistics, tires have relatively good revenue performance but weak profit performance in the chemical sub-industry.
In 2025, the tire segment will achieve total operating revenue of 116.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%; net profit attributable to the parent company is 7.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23%; the overall gross sales profit margin is 19.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 3pct; the net sales profit margin is 7%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8pct.
The overall sales expense rate of the segment was 3.8%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3pct.
In the first quarter of 2026, the segment achieved total operating income of 34.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, and a month-on-month increase of 15.1%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, and a month-on-month increase of 34.2%; the gross sales profit margin was 21.6%, a year-on-year increase of 3.8pct, and a month-on-month increase of 1pct; the net sales profit margin was 6.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9pct, and a month-on-month increase of 1.6pct.
In terms of profitability, considering that the rise in raw material prices in the second quarter of this year has pushed up costs, it is expected that industry profits will be under pressure.
The performance of the enterprise is clearly differentiated, and the market share of domestic leading tire companies is expected to continue to increase.
Leading tire companies with overseas bases and increased production capacity have stronger operational resilience.
Zhongce Rubber’s revenue scale and profit volume are both ahead of its peers. In 2025, total operating revenue will increase by 14.5% year-on-year to 45 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 9.5% year-on-year to 4.15 billion yuan;
Total operating income in the first quarter of 2026 was 11.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.7%. Net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and a month-on-month increase of 92.3%.
Sailun Tire’s profitability is ahead of its peers and has good stability. The company’s gross sales profit margin in the first quarter of 2026 was 26.9%, an increase of 2.1pct year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 2.3pct; the net sales profit margin was 11.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3pct and a month-on-month increase of 4.2pct.
As domestic tire companies continue to expand overseas, tire companies with global layout are expected to seize the opportunity and continue to seize global share amid the downgrade of consumption.
From a fundamental point of view, raw materials are currently the main factor affecting profitability. In the context of rising core raw material prices, although many companies have achieved cost transmission by issuing price increase letters, considering that there is a certain lag in price increases, it is expected that profits will still be under pressure in the second quarter. If the subsequent raw material prices fall, corporate profits are expected to be restored after the third quarter enters the peak sales season.
From the perspective of trade risks, the EU’s double-counterfeiting investigation continues to advance. Tire companies with multiple overseas bases can avoid risks by flexibly allocating orders.
From the perspective of industrial trends, on the one hand, the cost-effective tire market still has growth potential in the context of consumption downgrade. In the long term, the ceiling of market space that domestically produced tires can capture will be higher than before. On the supply side, domestic leading tire companies have begun their second round of overseas expansion, consolidating their cost-effective advantages while continuing to improve their ability to resist risks; on the other hand, on the policy side, if the European
If the anti-EU final tariff rate is higher, the supply of overseas production capacity will be relatively tight in the short term. EU orders for tire companies that have achieved global layout and have increased overseas production capacity are expected to see both volume and price increase. At the same time, the originally intensified competition in the US market will also be alleviated, further promoting the optimization of the tire industry structure, and we are optimistic about domestic tire companies that are the first to go overseas and have a relatively complete overseas layout.
However, there are also risks such as significant fluctuations in raw material prices, international trade frictions, significant fluctuations in shipping rates, significant exchange rate fluctuations, and intensified competition caused by domestic companies building factories overseas.
