The three major indexes all rose this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.46%, the Shenzhen Composite Component Index rising by 7.13%, the GEM Index rising by 11.02%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rising by 14.93%.
How will the market outlook develop?
Let’s take a look at the views of major institutions.
GF Securities: Extreme valuation differentiation is not a necessary condition for the market to turn bearish
Current AI vs non-AI, technology industry vs
The valuations and growth dispersion of traditional industries have reached record highs.
As measured by the standard deviation or the difference between the maximum and minimum values of the industry’s PB historical quantiles, the degree of industry valuation differentiation is close to the highest level in history.
Historically, there have been four serious valuation divergences that have converged into a full-scale bear market, and two other times that have converged into a full-scale bull market.
But the most important thing is that extreme valuation differentiation is not a necessary condition for the market to turn bearish.
In a bull market supported by industry trends, the degree of valuation differentiation can be maintained for a long time after reaching a high level, and it takes an average of 19 months from the peak of valuation differentiation to the peak of the bull market.
CICC: Crowding is not a reason to be bearish. Crowding may bring risks, but it may also mean that the trend is strengthening
Now there is a situation in the market where “technology is too crowded, and if it is not crowded, I don’t like it.”
A June survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch showed that 80% of global investors believe that it is crowded to be long in semiconductors.
However, crowding is not a reason to be bearish. It is necessary to distinguish between “good crowding” and “bad crowding”, and at the same time consider the needs of different investors for “odds” and “win rate”.
Direction choices are limited, and industry trends are still there, but attention should be paid to liquidity disturbances. Absolute returns can be expressed through positions, while relative returns are more of a “shrinking circle”, and returns on low-congested assets are not necessarily higher.
Shen Wanhongyuan: Risks are downgraded and the market is moving forward with inertia
With the easing of the conflict between the United States and Iran, the Fed’s hawks will not be extrapolated in a disorderly manner. The risks of the first meeting of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting were downgraded, and the market’s original inertia has not been destroyed.
Although the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on June 18 was hawkish, the conflict between the United States and Iran has tended to ease. The market not only attaches great importance to “a possible single interest rate increase in 2026”, but also believes in “another interest rate cut in 2027” guided by the Fed’s dot plot.
The current market differentiation is intensifying, the money-making effect is focused in a few directions, the overall money-making effect shrinks to a low level, the downward movement volume falls back from the high level, and the upward movement volume rebounds from the low level.
The short-term market has returned to its original inertial path, the trend of the AI industry is the main battlefield, and the double-click performance valuation of subdivided industries based on computing power inflation is the main source of investment opportunities.
In the mid-term, the market will open up and the structure will become more diversified, focusing on non-bank finance, new consumption, export chain Alpha and strategic resources.
In the future, we need to pay attention to the capital siphon brought about by major IPOs.
Everbright Securities: The situation between the United States and Iran has eased
The market is expected to regain momentum
Supported by fundamentals and industrial trends, coupled with the easing of the situation between the United States and Iran, the market is expected to fluctuate upward.
Fundamentals are the key to supporting the market’s upward trend. The PPI center in the second quarter will be significantly higher than that in the first quarter, and the profits of listed companies are expected to further increase.
The trend of the AI industry is booming, and the stock price still has room to rise.
If the situation between the United States and Iran does not ease again, global capital market risk appetite is expected to recover.
In terms of allocation direction, attention is paid to the three main lines of prosperity represented by hard technology, including hard technology industries such as electronics, communications, and national defense and military industries, export chain industries such as power equipment, mechanical equipment, and light manufacturing, as well as upstream resource industries such as nonferrous metals, coal, petroleum, and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals.
Optical communications and other sectors performed well this week, and investors can continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in related sectors.
Zheshang Securities: The equilibrium has not been reached and the style is more extreme. It is better to move less and wait and see.
The mass entrepreneurship and innovation index hit a new high, the deep value style has been corrected, the “rebalancing” of the trading style has not been achieved, and the market has returned to a technology-dominated pattern.
Although the Double Entrepreneurship Index has returned to an upward trend, the daily MACD top divergence has upward momentum in the future, but attention needs to be paid to whether the top divergence can be resolved.
The trend of the non-innovation index is weak. If it cannot be “pulled” by the mass entrepreneurship and innovation index and the market style cannot be “rebalanced”, it may retrace its previous low.
In terms of allocation, the mid-term position can continue to be held, and when the Shanghai Composite Index returns to its previous low, it can be appropriately increased.
Mass entrepreneurship and innovation is still the main line, but we need to pay attention to the deviation. At the same time, we can pay attention to some non-ferrous varieties that have rebounded from oversold prices.
Soochow Securities: Prosperity clues from the mid-term results, focus on three major areas
Macro disturbances will decrease, and A-shares will return to prosperous pricing.
The U.S.-Iran conflict is close to being reconciled, geopolitical risk premiums have fallen, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting has taken place, and monetary policy uncertainty has declined.
July has entered a window for intensive disclosure of interim performance forecasts, and prosperity is the core pricing factor.
A-share performance forecast disclosure rules screen out companies with high prosperity and are expected to achieve excess returns.
Prosperity clues in the 2026 mid-term report are concentrated in the three major areas of the AI hardware industry chain, upstream cyclical products, and midstream manufacturing with overseas advantages.
The profitability resilience of midstream manufacturing is expected to exceed market expectations, and the negative impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations and imported inflation on its profits is weakening.
Oriental Securities: Continue to be optimistic about manufacturing and focus on cycle repair
With expectations of geopolitical disturbances easing, the market may shift from over-concentration in deterministic directions to the pursuit of diversified opportunities.
In the short term, we can pay attention to the manufacturing direction related to power equipment and AI data centers, cyclical products such as oil transportation, where the boom is expected to recover, and dividend styles such as banks with inflection points in interest spreads, or there may be opportunities for recovery.
Zhongtai Securities: The structural market trend of technology growth is expected to continue
The structural market trend of technology growth is expected to continue.
Tracks such as AI computing power and semiconductors are supported by performance realization, but short-term chips are extremely concentrated, which may lead to high fluctuations and internal differentiation.
The fundamentals of the dividend sector have not deteriorated. If there is a period of rest in technology after the holiday, the low-valuation sector may have a chance to recover sentiment, but trend reversal still needs to wait for incremental funding signals.
Western Securities: A-share valuations expanded, with the electronics industry leading the gains
The overall valuation of A-shares expanded this week, with the electronics industry leading the gains.
The Lujiazui Financial Forum boosted sentiment in the technology sector, with “hard technology” industries such as electronics leading the gains.
The current valuation of the electronics industry is at a historically high level, and subsequent market trends are more driven by profits.
Comprehensive comparison of odds and winning rates shows that light manufacturing, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electric power equipment, building materials and other industries have both low valuations and high performance growth rates.
Hualong Securities: The investment and financing structure continues to be optimized and the capital market supports industrial upgrading
The economy has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality development. The investment and financing structure has changed due to industrial upgrading. Emerging industries such as technological innovation, high-end manufacturing, and green and low-carbon have promoted an increase in the proportion of direct financing. Funds have embraced technological revolution and industrial transformation.
The transformation of new technologies is accelerating, and innovation results influence the direction of global capital allocation.
The market continues to pay attention to the fields of technology and advanced manufacturing, as well as growing innovative and entrepreneurial enterprises.
