With the end of the 2026 Lunar New Year holiday, China’s tire industry has pressed the “acceleration button” to resume work and production.
Comprehensive industry data shows that the pace of domestic tire companies’ resumption of work after the Spring Festival this year is generally stable, with little change compared with the same period last year.
However, in terms of market performance, order structure and cost pressure, semi-steel tires and all-steel tires have shown significant differences.
Looking forward to March, amid optimistic expectations that capacity utilization and market transactions are expected to increase simultaneously, the industry also needs to face the continued squeeze on profits brought about by high raw material costs.
The resumption of work is progressing in an orderly manner, with overall stability but slight differentiation
According to the survey, after the Spring Festival in 2026, domestic tire companies’ resumption plans have been smoothly implemented, and production enthusiasm is generally good.
Most of the semi-steel tire companies resume work from the fifth to the seventh day of the first lunar month as planned, which is basically the same as last year.
It is worth noting that some companies even maintained normal production during the Spring Festival and did not arrange any shutdowns or holidays. This reflects the urgency of order delivery by some companies.
Among all-steel tire companies, over 90% resume work from the fifth to the eighth day of the first lunar month.
Although some companies have postponed their resumption of work by 2-3 days due to external factors (such as delays in hiring, etc.), overall the original plan has not been disrupted and the resumption of work is in an orderly manner.
Although the resumption of work and production is generally proceeding as planned, some companies report that they are still facing certain labor constraints, which has put a short-term limit on the rate of production ramp-up.
However, this constraint is expected to be eased in early March as workers gradually return to work.
Market performance: “Semi-steel is strong, all-steel is stable”
The momentum of market recovery after the holiday shows different strengths in the field of semi-steel tires and all-steel tires.
Orders for semi-steel tires exceeded expectations, and construction resumed quickly, showing stronger resilience.
Many companies said that orders received in February were “significantly better than expected.”
This positive trend is mainly due to the EU’s decision “not to take temporary measures” in the anti-dumping investigation of passenger cars and light truck tires in China in December last year, which stabilized and boosted export orders to Europe in the first quarter.
The strong orders, coupled with the concentrated replenishment demand in the domestic market after the holiday, jointly supported the rapid recovery of the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies.
In terms of all-steel tires, they have shown a stable and improving trend, waiting for terminal digestion, and appear to be more stable.
Most agents have returned to the market from the sixth to the eighth day of the first lunar month, and some brands have held post-holiday ordering meetings.
Judging from market feedback, order volume has improved compared with the same period last year, showing certain signs of recovery.
However, due to the certain social inventory pressure in channels before the holiday, it will still take time for terminals to actually digest it. Therefore, the current market transactions are more in the “gradual recovery” stage, and agents are still cautious in purchasing goods.
The production resumption of all-steel tire companies is more driven by expectations for the subsequent market and the completion of quarterly tasks.
Raw material costs are high, and corporate profit margins are under pressure
Returning from the holidays, the biggest challenge facing the tire industry comes from the cost side.
The prices of main raw materials rose significantly after the holiday:
The price of natural rubber (Taiwan 20#) increased by 3.79% compared with before the holiday; the main rubber price rose to 17,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.9% from before the holiday; the prices of synthetic rubber such as styrene-butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber were also adjusted to varying degrees.
At the same time, carbon black prices are still at high levels. As of February 27, the price range of carbon black N330 in the Shandong market is 6,800-7,000 yuan/ton, and the average price has increased by about 800 yuan/ton from the beginning of January, an increase of 13%.
According to data, as of February 24, the raw material cost index for semi-steel tires increased by 1.72% month-on-month, and the raw material cost index for all-steel tires increased by 2.20% month-on-month.
The rapid rise in raw material costs has directly squeezed the already meager profits of tire production.
According to the weekly report, during this cycle, the theoretical profit values of semi-steel tires and all-steel tires have fallen into the loss range, and have further declined month-on-month.
In the context of “rising costs and stable finished product prices”, the cost pressure on tire companies has become increasingly prominent.
March Outlook: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the game is intensifying
Looking forward to March, the tire market is expected to show a pattern of “both supply and demand are booming, and the game is intensifying.”
On the supply side, as the staff attendance rate increases and production lines are fully restored, it is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of sample companies will further increase in early March.
On the demand side, March is the traditional peak sales season.
With logistics fully unblocked and engineering projects in various places being launched one after another, the terminal demand for all-steel tires is expected to be substantially improved.
The semi-steel tire market is expected to remain highly active under the dual support of export orders and domestic replacement demand.
The market trading atmosphere will be significantly better than that in February.
In terms of price and profit, currently, in order to stimulate shipments and seize market share, most tire companies still continue the pre-holiday promotion strategy in price policies and are deeply tied to the workload.
However, continued cost pressure is eroding corporate profits.
In mid-to-late March, if raw material prices remain high and market demand fails to grow explosively, some companies may moderately retract their early promotion policies in order to maintain profits.
Future price trends will depend on the game between “cost support” and “market demand intensity.”
Overall, China’s tire industry has had a stable start after the Spring Festival in 2026 and is moving steadily forward on the recovery track.
Despite the overall positive trend of the industry, high raw material costs continue to test the company’s cost control capabilities and profitability.
In March, the market will launch a new round of pricing and profit games in the resonance of increased production and demand recovery, and the trend of industry structural differentiation may become clearer.
