Currently, short video platforms are overwhelmingly promoting the myth of cross-border wealth creation: a mobile phone, a few thousand yuan in start-up capital, no need to stock up on goods, and a monthly income of tens of thousands easily.
But in reality, the contrast between the two types of cross-border practitioners is glaring: the mom-and-pop stores in Yiwu, which are deeply involved in niche home furnishing categories, had a net profit of more than RMB 1.7 million in the first half of this year; on the other hand, the newbies who followed the trend and entered the industry spent RMB 20,000 on stocking and shipping. In half a year, the warehouses were filled with unsalable goods, and the general ledger lost more than RMB 30,000.
The size of the cross-border market has exceeded 4.4 trillion in 2026. Behind the seemingly continuous expansion of the industry, the track has already shown a polarized pattern: on one side are boutique sellers who are making stable profits, and on the other are retail traders who are constantly losing money. 70% of novices entering the market have directly fallen victim to industry involution.
We combine the latest platform policies in June 2026, on-site visit data in the Pearl River Delta, and real merchant profit and loss cases to dismantle whether cross-border e-commerce is a profit outlet or a trap for ordinary people to get involved, and at the same time, we provide a low-risk practical plan for entry that ordinary people can implement.
1. Real industry data: Cross-border is no longer a bonus for all employees, and only a few make money
Many people only see bloggers posting large amounts of backend turnover, but fail to see the current loss situation at the bottom of the industry. Several sets of authoritative survey data are clear at a glance:
1.
Profit stratification is serious: In 2026, only 31% of sellers in the industry will achieve profit growth, 46% of merchants will have increased revenue but declining profits, and the remaining merchants will remain flat or continue to lose money.
The 1.6% top sellers on Amazon’s US site share nearly half of the platform’s revenue. Hundreds of thousands of small and medium-sized sellers compete for the remaining traffic, and traffic monopoly is a foregone conclusion.
2. The product distribution model has completely failed: 72% of the sellers’ gross profit margin has fallen below 5%. After deducting the costs of logistics, advertising, warehousing, and returns, the work is basically in vain or even repaid.
The early era of listing thousands of products with one click to earn information is completely over. The platform algorithm is fully tilted towards vertical boutique stores, and grocery stores continue to be restricted.
3. Costs have skyrocketed across the board, and profits have been diluted layer by layer: the unit price of first-leg logistics in Europe and the United States has increased by 25% year-on-year. The European Union has abolished the 150-euro small package tax exemption in July, and an additional 3-5 euros in taxes per item; platform commissions and advertising costs are increasing year by year, and comprehensive operating costs account for more than half of sales. Many stores see monthly sales of hundreds of thousands, but very little profit.
4. Return losses eat up revenue: The general return rate in European and American markets is 18%-30%, and the clothing and affordable accessories categories exceed 40%. Small items cannot be resold if they are returned damaged, and the return shipping costs are all borne by the seller. One return order will eat up the profits of more than a dozen orders.
A visit to Yiwu Cross-Border Trade City shows that a large number of retail warehouses are filled with unsalable and low-priced goods. Low-priced 3C, ordinary women’s clothing, and undifferentiated home furnishings are the hardest-hit areas. Many merchants are clearing out goods at low prices, and many have suffered losses of tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands.
The so-called sudden wealth of the whole people is just a case of survivors deliberately selected from the short video. The vast majority of ordinary people entering the scene will only be consumed by involution.
2. Why are ordinary retail investors entering a “new meat grinder” by selling goods across borders?
Many novices listen to the rhetoric of “zero threshold to go overseas”, blindly distribute goods and sell goods at low prices, which can easily lead to four unsolvable dead ends. Long-term operations will only continue to suffer losses:
The first is an undifferentiated price war, and profits are infinitely compressed.
Sellers purchase goods in batches from 1688 without modification or packaging optimization. The same product is sold simultaneously in dozens or hundreds of stores across the network, and they can only rely on price reduction to grab orders.
You sell it for US$9.9, but your peers directly drop it to US$7.99, and the gross profit margin is reduced to less than 5%. As long as the prices of advertising and logistics increase slightly, you will immediately lose money.
Don’t touch popular red ocean categories such as ordinary mobile phone accessories, affordable women’s clothing, and large furniture. The number of searched products exceeds 500,000, and the leading store has accumulated tens of thousands of positive reviews. It is difficult for new products to receive natural traffic. The ROI of advertising continues to decline. If you invest money, you will not receive any orders, and if you do not invest, there will be zero visitors.
Secondly, hidden costs emerge in endlessly, which novices cannot predict at all.
Most novices only calculate procurement costs and ignore a large number of hidden expenses: logistics surcharges, overseas warehousing monthly rent, platform fulfillment service fees, compliance certification fees, trademark registration, EPR environmental recycling tax, advertising, return and exchange freight charges, and translation art costs.
Real calculations show that an accessory with a domestic purchase price of 12 yuan is shipped to European and American logistics for 9 yuan, with a platform commission of 10%, advertising accounting for 18% of sales, a tariff of 2 euros, and an average return loss of 15%. The final net profit of a single product is less than 3 yuan. Once the order volume declines, fixed warehousing and labor costs will directly bring down the store.
The third is the comprehensive tightening of global compliance, which directly closes stores and freezes funds.
Domestic and foreign supervision will be doubled in 2026, all past gray operations will be invalidated, and novices will easily touch the red line: financial and taxation supervision will be opened up, the four phases of the Golden Tax will be synchronized with the cross-border platform flow, private foreign exchange collection, long-term zero declarations, and customs declarations will all be strictly investigated, merchants in many places will be required to pay millions of taxes and fines for tax evasion, and legal persons will restrict high consumption; overseas policies
The threshold has been raised. EU EPR recycling regulations and mandatory product safety certification in various countries are indispensable. Unqualified products will be immediately removed from the shelves and fined; account control is strict, second-hand stores are purchased, IPs are shared by multiple stores, and pictures and text infringe. Once verified, the entire store will be banned, account funds will be frozen and cannot be withdrawn, and many novices will be robbed of tens of thousands of inventory and payment.
The fourth is that inventory risk is extremely high and capital turnover is prone to breakage.
The distribution model requires large-scale stocking, and mistakes in predicting hot sales will produce a large amount of unsaleable inventory.
Overseas warehouse storage is billed on a monthly basis. The longer the backlog of goods is, the greater the loss will be. The remaining goods can only be cleared at a low price or even scrapped directly.
Many novices stock up hundreds of thousands of goods at a time. When encountering platform restrictions and changes in market demand, the goods fall into their hands and their cash flow is cut off, making them unable to continue operations.
3. Cross-border tracks that can truly make money, these four types of blue ocean directions are the most certain in 2026
Cross-border is not impossible, but the extensive distribution model has been eliminated. Merchants who are deeply involved in subdivided high-quality products and light asset models are still making stable profits. Summarizing the current four types of deterministic tracks, ordinary people can enter the game at a low threshold:
1. TikTok Southeast Asia fully managed: the first choice for novices, with a start-up capital of only 5,000-10,000.
The Southeast Asian market has fast user growth and strong platform support. Self-employed individuals can settle in. New merchants are free of deposit for 90 days. The backend is operated in Chinese, so there is no need to be proficient in foreign languages.
The fully managed model has obvious advantages: merchants only supply domestic transit warehouses, and operations, short videos, live broadcasts, overseas logistics, and after-sales are all handled by the platform, saving a lot of labor costs. The comprehensive commission is only 8%-12%, the gross profit margin of a single product is stable at 30%-40%, the payment cycle is 3-5 days, and the pressure on capital turnover is small.
Suitable products for selection: small decompression creative products, small pet accessories, lightweight outdoor tools, niche beauty tools, and avoid high-return categories such as clothing and large furniture.
Practical cases show that practitioners invested 8,000 yuan in stocking samples and spent two hours a day editing materials, and achieved a stable monthly net profit of about 20,000 yuan in three months.
2. Emerging market vertical products: focusing on Latin America, the Middle East, and African markets.
The European and American markets are saturated, but online consumption among young people in Latin America and the Middle East is exploding. Domestic mature niche products are blank markets there, with minimal competition and no need for fierce price wars.
High-growth categories include small energy storage equipment, crystal emotional jewelry, smart pet products, and silver hair care equipment. Overseas consumers are willing to pay a premium for differentiated products. The gross profit of a single product can reach more than 45%. The monopoly of the top is not obvious, and new products can be easily mass-produced quickly.
There is no need to stock up in large quantities when entering the market. First, test small batches, and then add additional stock after the market verifies profitability, thus reducing inventory risks.
3. Content-oriented emotional commodities: relying on TikTok’s natural flow, advertising investment is extremely low.
Overseas users who watch short videos prefer products that are interesting, decompressing, and have social attributes. Ugly decompressing toys, creative spoof ornaments, and national-style niche accessories have their own topics. Users spontaneously shoot UGC to spread, and there is almost no need to pay for streaming.
This type of product has strong visual impact, short videos are easy to get out of the circle, and the competition is far lower than standard products. The number of online products searched is less than 10,000, and the supply-demand ratio exceeds 1.5. It belongs to the standard blue ocean track. One person can complete content shooting and listing with a mobile phone, and the adaptability of light asset side business is extremely high.
4. B-end small-amount wholesale cross-border: avoid the high risk of retail returns.
The retail C-side has constant disputes over returns and bad reviews, while the small-value B-side wholesale connects with overseas offline stores and independent sellers, with stable orders, strong repurchases, and a return rate of less than 5%. There is no need to continue advertising to maintain traffic.
Relying on 1688’s cross-border supply, it connects with the overseas purchasing community and focuses on bulk supply of subdivided categories. It earns stable price differences based on volume and has healthy cash flow. It is suitable for entrepreneurs with basic supply chain resources.
4. Ordinary people entering the cross-border market, 3 life-saving rules to avoid pitfalls
1. Resolutely abandon the grocery store model, and only focus on one sub-category in a single store.
Platform traffic no longer supports multi-category stores, and cluttered stores directly limit traffic by 50%. Focusing on a single track makes it easier to accumulate accurate customers, reduce the pressure of inventory dispersion, and reduce the cost of trial and error in product selection.
2. Newbies give priority to the light-asset model and avoid large-scale hoarding.
Don’t invest more than RMB 50,000 in one-time stocking with zero foundation. Prioritize full custody of TikTok and dropshipping for testing. After running through a stable profit model, stock a small amount of stock; refuse to rent heavy assets in overseas warehouses to start, and rely on platform transit warehouses to reduce warehousing expenses in the early stage.
3. Prioritize compliance and avoid gray operations.
Apply for a formal enterprise business license, collect and file taxes in compliance, prepare overseas certification and trademark authorization for products in advance, do not declare the value of goods at a low price to avoid tariffs, do not purchase and transfer stores, and avoid the risk of store closures and fines from the source.
Industry Summary
The craze of people pouring into cross-border e-commerce is essentially the public’s desire for low-threshold sideline businesses to increase income. However, the industry has completed structural reshuffle, and the dividends earned in the early years by relying on poor information and low-price distribution have completely disappeared.
Today, the polarization of the cross-border market is clear: Merchants who are deeply involved in segmenting high-quality products, controlling compliance, and operating with light assets continue to gain market growth and achieve stable profits; retail investors who blindly follow the trend, only engage in low prices, and ignore compliance and costs will only continue to be consumed by the triple pressure of traffic, inventory, and policies, and become victims of the industry’s meat grinder.
There is no barrier-free way to get rich in any industry. The pictures of easy money rendered by short videos only show a few successful people and cover up the current situation of losses for the vast majority of people.
The growth of market size does not mean that ordinary people can receive dividends, and whether they can make money depends on the operating model, product selection vision, and risk control, rather than simply following the trend.
Cross-border is still a long-term potential overseas route, but it is necessary to abandon the old thinking of distribution and take a refined, vertical and compliant route in order to avoid the trap of involution and obtain stable returns.
Have you ever been exposed to cross-border e-commerce?
Are you waiting and watching, or have you already stepped into the trap and made a loss?
Are you more optimistic about TikTok in Southeast Asia or emerging markets in Latin America?
Feel free to share your experiences and opinions in the comment area.
