When regulators asked “whether stablecoins will play a more important role in cross-border payments” at the Open Financial Forum, the quarterly transaction volume of global stablecoins has exceeded US$28 trillion, approaching the total global trade for the year.
This number is not only evidence of technological disruption, but also a strong warning to the current international payment system.
The rise of stablecoins is pushing the restructuring of cross-border payment rules to a historic critical point. The intertwined monetary sovereignty game, financial security challenges and waves of technological innovation behind it force countries to seek a new balance between change and order.
The nature of “structural substitution” of stablecoins is the deep impact of technology on the traditional financial system.
Based on the instant clearing capabilities of blockchain technology, stablecoins break the delays and high costs of cross-border payments under the SWIFT system and become the “invisible artery” for global capital flows.
From “a tool for crypto exchanges” to a “clearing network”, its circulation speed reflects the market’s desire for efficiency.
However, there are structural contradictions hidden behind the technical advantages: the “global” nature of stablecoins is in sharp opposition to the “fragmentation” of regulatory rules.
The separation of compliance standards, license requirements and banking systems in various countries has always made the cross-border application of stablecoins trapped in institutional barriers.
If technological innovation lacks an appropriate regulatory system, global financial stability will be exposed to huge risks.
In the era of “weaponization” of payments, the dual role of stablecoins has exacerbated anxiety about monetary sovereignty.
The current international payment system relies on SWIFT and the hegemony of the US dollar. In geopolitical games, payment channels have repeatedly become sanctions tools.
The decentralized nature of stablecoins seems to provide a “technology-neutral” alternative path, but in fact it has fallen into a new dilemma: mainstream stablecoins are deeply bound to the U.S. dollar, alienating it from “dollars in the banking system” to “dollars on the blockchain.”
If cross-border trade shifts to such instruments on a large scale, the settlement and pricing rights of legal currencies such as the RMB will be invisibly eroded.
For China, this is more about the effectiveness of the RMB internationalization process – the “bypass” effect of technical tools may cause years of policy efforts to face new challenges.
The IMF has also previously warned that the expansion of stablecoins is quietly restructuring the boundaries of monetary sovereignty.
The evolution of China’s regulatory logic demonstrates the strategic thinking from “defense” to “active shaping”.
From banning the overseas issuance of stable coins linked to the RMB to emphasizing the prospects of cross-border application of central bank digital currency, China is advancing on a dual track of “penetrating supervision + technological breakthrough”.
The underlying logic of supervision is clear: it is necessary not only to curb the potential threat of stablecoins to monetary sovereignty, but also to seize the right to speak on the track of new payment tools.
The iteration of the digital renminbi and the rising transaction volume of the multilateral central bank’s digital currency bridge mBridge system mark China’s efforts to build an “independent, controllable, safe and efficient” cross-border payment infrastructure.
Relevant regulatory statements further reveal the policy direction: China is no longer satisfied with passively “plugging leaks”, but wants to become a “writer” in the formulation of rules and promote the establishment of international standards such as stable currency reserve transparency and cross-border flow supervision through multilateral cooperation.
This is not only a positive response to technological changes, but also an active defense of financial sovereignty.
The three challenges of rule reconstruction reveal the future of the cross-border payment system.
The changes triggered by stablecoins are by no means a single technical iteration, but involve systemic reconstruction in three dimensions: First, the balance between efficiency and security – how can privately issued stablecoins be compatible with the stability of the public system?
The competition between central bank digital currencies may become the key.
Second, the offense and defense of sovereign currencies—how to consolidate the status of the local currency in the penetration of “on-chain US dollars”?
Expanding the usage scenarios of RMB in cross-border trade and deepening regional payment interconnection are must-answer questions for China.
Third, the reshaping of global governance – who will formulate the rules for new payment instruments?
The battle for answers will determine the power structure of the future financial system.
The international coordination China promotes through platforms such as the G20 is to gain a say in restructuring the rules of the game.
Facing this change related to the global financial order, China needs to use institutional wisdom to ride the wave of technology.
The transaction volume of 28 trillion US dollars has declared that stablecoins are no longer “future tense” but “ongoing tense”.
Regulators cannot be spectators on the shore, but need to be shapers of rules.
To find a balance between “prudence” and “exploration”, we must not only prevent risks, but also grasp the technological dividends; we must not only maintain the bottom line of monetary sovereignty, but also win the initiative in the new track of cross-border payments.
The outcome of this game is not only related to a country’s financial interests, but also affects the governance structure of the global economy.
When technological disruption intersects with the game of sovereignty, only by restructuring the rules to control change can the smooth transformation of the financial order be safeguarded.
Every policy choice China makes at this historical node will provide an important model for the world – opening up a new path to win-win payment in the tension between innovation and order.
