It will officially exceed one trillion in 2025 and approach the one trillion mark in 2026. Is smart home an outlet or a trap?
Let’s dig deeper together.
First of all, let’s look at the data. How big is the market size?
In 2025, China’s smart home market will exceed 815.4 billion yuan, and is forecast to reach 998 billion yuan in 2026. It is expected to hit 1.84 trillion yuan by 2030.
Its average annual compound growth rate reaches 16%, outperforming most industry tracks.
From the perspective of segmented fields, smart security accounts for the majority, followed by smart lighting, which accounts for 16%, and smart connections (75.6 billion) and smart light sensors (22.7 billion) have the fastest growth rates.
The next step is the competition between the three major camps. Who is the best solution for ordinary people?
Xiaomi is the first choice for ordinary people. It has rich equipment and a complete ecosystem. It can be executed locally even if the network is disconnected after the central gateway. It can handle the entire house for 10,000 to 30,000.
When choosing a smart home, choosing the right protocol is more important than choosing the brand. This is also the link where you are most likely to be fooled.
WiFi devices have high power consumption, and routers will crash when there are too many devices, and will fail completely when the network is disconnected; Bluetooth Mesh is Xiaomi’s home ground, the first choice for entry-level, and can handle a basic whole house for 3,000 yuan; Zigbee 3.0 is Aqara’s green rice solution, which is stable and reliable, and can be executed locally when disconnected. The standard price is 10,000 to 30,000 yuan; the Matter protocol is jointly launched by Apple, Google, and Amazon. It is interoperable across platforms and will become mainstream in 2026-2027.
One sentence conclusion: Choose Zigbee 3.0 for new decoration, choose Bluetooth Mesh for rear decoration/small apartments, and choose Matter equipment if you are concerned about the future.
So, how much does it really cost?
Here’s a guide to avoiding pitfalls.
Do not mix and match more than 3 brands, as compatibility issues will drive people crazy; choose wireless solutions for finely decorated rooms/post-furnishings, and wired systems must be planned before decoration; the annual maintenance cost is about 500-2,000 yuan, so you need to calculate the budget in advance.
The conclusion is that 2026 is a good time to enter the market for three reasons.
First, the protocol has matured, Matter has become popular, and the problem of ecological fragmentation is being solved; second, the cost has dropped, with the standard range ranging from 10,000 to 30,000, which is more than 50% lower than 5 years ago; third, AI support and large models have transformed voice control from “retarded” to “intelligent”, and the experience has undergone a qualitative change.
Preview for the next issue: The first step in the smart renovation of the whole house – what are the essential differences between the wiring plans in the three situations: rough room, finely decorated room, and post-installation?
Let us look forward to the follow-up in-depth interpretation.
