Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report saying that the overall performance of my country’s e-commerce platforms in 26Q1 was outstanding, and the growth rate and profits of the main business showed an improvement trend. As the industry turns to new business investment and immediate retail subsidy competition, the bank believes that the profits of e-commerce platforms in the second half of the year are expected to exceed expectations.
AI large models continue to iterate and deepen the implementation of end-side and scenario-based implementation. AI service capabilities have been significantly improved, and we are optimistic about the future of AI + e-commerce collaborative development of new increments.
Shenwan Hongyuan’s main views are as follows:
Online consumption is picking up, platform GMV and monetization rate have improved marginally, and the popularity of the 618 Big Promotion continues
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 26 years 1 –
In April, total retail sales reached 16.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%; national online retail sales of goods and services reached 6.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, of which online retail sales of physical goods increased 5.7% year-on-year to 4.12 trillion yuan, with an online penetration rate of 25.0%. Online channels remain an important support for consumption growth.
The total volume of express delivery business reached 64.57 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, basically matching the growth rate of online retail sales.
In 26Q1, the growth rate of traditional e-commerce GMV converged and stabilized, and user activity continued to increase. JD.com’s quarterly active users increased by more than 20% year-on-year, and shopping frequency increased by 37% year-on-year. The overall order size of Alibaba’s instant retail reached 2.7 times the same period last year, and Pinduoduo’s transaction service revenue maintained rapid growth.
The 618 Big Sale continues the popularity of consumption, and platform competition is shifting from simple low prices to a comprehensive competition of subsidy efficiency, AI tools and refined operation capabilities.
AI application penetration is accelerating, and cloud and model services have entered a period of accelerated commercialization
AI demand is expanding rapidly, and leading Internet manufacturers continue to increase investment in infrastructure and model applications.
According to Omdia, my country’s cloud infrastructure service expenditure in 25Q4 was approximately US$14.7 billion, with the year-on-year growth rate remaining at around 30%.
Alibaba Cloud leads China’s AI cloud market with a 38.1% share.
The number of users of leading AI native apps is expanding rapidly. According to QuestMobile, as of March 2026, the number of monthly active users of AI native apps has reached 440 million, with more than 130 million new users added in a single quarter. The monthly active users of Doubao, Qianwen, and DeepSeek have reached 345 million, 166 million, and 127 million respectively; as of April 2026, QwenApp MAU has further increased to over 220 million.
The focus of AI competition among major Internet companies is shifting from model capability competition to scenario expansion, ecological integration, and commercial value transformation. At the same time, Alibaba Cloud, Tencent Cloud, Baidu Cloud, etc. have intensively raised the prices of AI computing power, storage, and model calls. Byte, Tencent Cloud, and other model API charges have been increased. DeepSeek, Xiaomi, etc. have reduced prices to compete for the developer ecosystem. The commercialization process of the AI industry chain continues to advance.
The competitive logic of instant retail and cross-border e-commerce industries has been optimized, shifting from extensive investment subsidies to efficiency wins
Since 25Q4, the margin of industry subsidy competition has cooled down, and the pattern has gradually been optimized. According to Analysys analysis, in 25Q4 Taobao flash sales and Meituan instant retail market share were both about 45%, and JD.com ranked third with a share of 8.4%.
Judging from the year-on-year trend, as of March 26, the traffic of independent food delivery APPs has declined, while the traffic of related platform main sites has continued to increase. After the initial cultivation of consumers’ minds, user demand is migrating from a single food delivery scenario to a comprehensive consumption platform. This side confirms that major platforms have begun to pay more attention to the release of ecological synergies in the context of shrinking subsidies.
In terms of cross-border e-commerce, according to customs data, my country’s cross-border e-commerce imports and exports in 26Q1 were 618.46 billion yuan, of which exports were 473.55 billion yuan.
Overall, the focus of platform competition is shifting from low-price subsidies to supply chain capabilities, contract fulfillment efficiency and localized operations.
At the same time, AI technology continues to penetrate the entire e-commerce chain, driving the platform to improve operational efficiency and accelerating the construction of local distribution and O2O channels.
The main business on the revenue side is overall stable, the cloud business continues to grow rapidly, and the profit side is under periodic pressure due to the impact of AI, instant retail and overseas investment
According to the company announcement, in 26Q1 Alibaba/JD.com/Pinduoduo/Meituan achieved revenue of 2434/3157/1062/91 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%/4.9%/11.0%/5.6% respectively.
Among them, Alibaba’s CMR increased by 1.2% year-on-year, JD.com’s retail revenue increased by 1.8% year-on-year, Pinduoduo’s transaction service revenue increased by 19.9% year-on-year, and Meituan’s core local business revenue increased slightly by 0.1% year-on-year.
Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group’s revenue increased by 38% year-on-year to 41.6 billion yuan, and AI-related product revenue achieved triple-digit year-on-year growth for eleven consecutive quarters.
From the profit side, the net profits of Alibaba/JD.com/Meituan/Pinduoduo in 26Q1 were 0.9/73.8/-4.97/14.07 billion yuan respectively. Investment in AI infrastructure, real-time retail and overseas expansion will still cause disturbances to short-term profits, but in the long term it is expected to promote the continued improvement of platform competitiveness.
Risk warning: Residential consumption is lower than expected, industry competition is intensifying, new business development is lower than expected, and subsidy investment is higher than expected.
