In May 2026, as the temperature rises, there will also be a restless “heat wave” in the automotive aftermarket.
From international giants such as Michelin and Bridgestone to domestic leaders such as Zhongce Rubber and Sailun Tire, a wave of price increases is sweeping across the entire industry.
According to incomplete statistics, more than 80 tire companies have issued price increase letters since this year. The increases are generally between 2% and 5%, and some companies have even achieved astonishing increases of 10%.
However, in sharp contrast to the “rising voices” on the manufacturers’ end, the terminal retail market is calm.
Car owners did not immediately feel the soaring cost of tire replacement, and large car maintenance platforms even shouted the slogan “no price increase in the short term.”
Why does this seemingly vigorous wave of price increases present an embarrassing situation of “big thunder but little rain”?
Under the double attack of skyrocketing raw materials and weak terminal demand, the tire industry is undergoing a profound change in survival, gaming and reshuffle.
Cost pressure: “Passive survival” under the skyrocketing raw materials
The collective price increase in the tire industry this time is not a business strategy for companies to actively seek profit expansion, but a “passive survival” under extreme cost pressure.
In the production cost of tires, the three core raw materials of natural rubber, synthetic rubber and carbon black account for more than 70% in total.
Since 2026, the prices of these three major raw materials have shown a “full bloom” surge.
Affected by geopolitical conflicts such as fluctuations in international crude oil prices and the situation in the Middle East, the price of butadiene, the raw material for synthetic rubber, once hit a new high since 2017, and even exceeded the price of natural rubber in a rare phenomenon.
At the same time, the spot price of natural rubber continued to rise due to delayed opening of production areas and the mismatch between supply and demand; while the price of carbon black soared by more than 13% in a single month due to production capacity contraction due to tightening environmental policies.
In addition to core raw materials, the simultaneous rise in prices of auxiliary materials such as steel cord, as well as the rising international logistics and energy costs driven by geopolitical conflicts, together constitute a “cost siege” faced by tire companies.
According to industry estimates, the average production cost of all-steel tires in March increased by nearly 7% compared with the beginning of the year, while the price adjustments announced by most companies were only between 2% and 5%.
This means that even if prices increase, the price adjustments of many tire companies still cannot fully cover the increase in costs, and some mid-range brands have even fallen into the cost inversion dilemma of “losing one piece of production”.
Price increases have become their only option to maintain cash flow and avoid expanding losses.
Conduction block: the embarrassing reality of “announcement but no increase”
Although the price increase letters from the upstream factories came like snow flakes, this price increase wave encountered serious “intestinal obstruction” when it was transmitted to the downstream, showing the obvious characteristics of “positive announcement of increase but lagging implementation”.
On the retail side, tire price adjustments show great differentiation.
For large chain car maintenance platforms (such as Tuhu Car Maintenance) and mainstream e-commerce companies, they have the ability to absorb part of the rising cost pressure in the short term by virtue of their bargaining advantages of large-scale direct procurement and the inventory buffer prepared in advance in the first half of the year.
In order to seize market share, these platforms not only did not follow up the price increase immediately, but continued to engage in price wars by maintaining the original price or reducing discounts.
In traditional offline retail stores, especially small and medium-sized auto repair shops, due to the lack of inventory advantages and bargaining power, they have to pass on the pressure to consumers in the face of rising purchase costs from upstream dealers.
At present, the retail price of economical tires has generally increased by 30 yuan to 50 yuan, and the price increase of mid-to-high-end products is mostly between 100 yuan and 200 yuan.
This situation of “stable online and rising offline” has caused many consumers to have a wait-and-see mood, further inhibiting the release of terminal demand.
The deeper obstacle comes from the imbalance between supply and demand.
The current domestic tire market as a whole shows an oversupply pattern, with a large amount of inventory accumulated in the warehouses of both retailers and agents.
In addition, the tense situation in the Middle East has blocked overseas orders for some manufacturers, and production capacity originally used for export has been forced to shift to the domestic market for digestion, which has further intensified the already fierce domestic competition.
In the context of weak demand and high inventory, downstream channels have very little willingness to purchase high-priced new goods, and generally choose to “destock” rather than “restock”, causing manufacturers’ price increase instructions to be intercepted at the channel end.
Industry Reshuffle: From “Price Involution” to “Value Breakout”
This round of cost-driven price increases has objectively become an opportunity for the tire industry to break the long-term “price involution” and has also accelerated the transformation and reshuffle of the industry from scale competition to value competition.
With cost pressures unable to be completely passed on, companies’ ability to resist risks has become significantly differentiated.
Leading companies with global layout, such as Sailun Tire, can effectively avoid trade barriers and cost fluctuations in a single market by virtue of their overseas production capacity in Vietnam, Cambodia and other places, and use the cost advantages of overseas bases to hedge against domestic pressure.
At the same time, companies that are actively entering high-margin tracks such as special tires for new energy vehicles and high-end replacement tires have also demonstrated stronger pricing power.
New energy vehicles have put forward higher requirements for the wear resistance, quietness and load-bearing capacity of tires. The gross profit margin of such high-end products is usually more than 5 percentage points higher than that of traditional tires, becoming a key moat for leading companies to overcome the cycle.
On the contrary, those small and medium-sized tire companies that lack core technologies and rely solely on low prices and volume are facing a life-and-death test.
Against the background of normal raw material price fluctuations and increasingly stringent environmental policies, companies without brand premiums and technical barriers will be the first to be liquidated in each round of cost fluctuations.
For investors and consumers, the current tire industry is at a critical turning point.
In the short term, with the gradual digestion of low-priced inventory in channels, the actual transaction price in the terminal market may slowly increase. However, due to weak terminal demand, it is difficult to achieve a general increase.
In the long term, industry concentration will continue to increase, and market share will accelerate toward leading companies with global production capacity, high-end product matrix, and strong brand premiums.
This price increase is not only a cost defense battle for tire companies, but also a knockout competition to reshape the industry structure.
Those who can ultimately get through this cycle are no longer the “scale giants” who only engage in price wars, but the “value players” who have mastered core technologies and can balance cost transmission and market share.
