Recently, the trend in the semiconductor circle has changed. Previously, funding and industry discussions focused on chip design and wafer manufacturing, with few people studying back-end packaging in depth.
However, recent industry surveys and exhibitions have shown that the logic of the packaging track has reached an inflection point. Ceramic materials have changed from marginal supporting raw materials to core materials for chip packaging. Practitioners have begun to re-examine this segmented track.
Many investors believe that packaging is a simple assembly link with low technical threshold and fixed growth ceiling.
However, the development of new energy, 5G, and automotive electronics has made the working environment of chips harsh. Traditional resin packaging materials are difficult to withstand high temperature, high frequency, and high pressure working conditions. Material iteration has prompted the reconstruction of the packaging industry chain. The explosion in demand for ceramic materials is not a short-term hype.
From the domestic industry perspective, the Bureau of Statistics data reflects the changes in the packaging industry chain. Official media have repeatedly mentioned the localization of third-generation semiconductors and advanced packaging. Ceramic packaging materials have moved from niche to public view, which is the result of industry demand and policy guidance.
1. Current status of the industry: The implementation of advanced packaging is accelerating, and the demand for ceramic materials is steadily expanding
Domestic wafer manufacturing capacity is expanding, and the shipments of downstream automotive semiconductors, industrial power chips, and high-speed optical modules are growing, driving the back-end packaging market.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the revenue of the domestic semiconductor device manufacturing industry has increased for many consecutive months, and the growth rate of the advanced packaging segment is higher than that of traditional plastic packaging.
Advanced packaging is no longer exclusive to leading companies. Small and medium-sized packaging and testing manufacturers have entered the power and radio frequency chip packaging business. Ceramic substrates and casings are hard consumables.
Traditional plastic packaging materials have low cost and easy processing, and have long occupied the consumer chip packaging market. However, RF chips require packaging materials with low dielectric loss, high thermal conductivity, and high insulation properties. Alumina and aluminum nitride ceramics are the only suitable base materials.
Power semiconductors are large consumers of ceramic materials. New energy vehicle electronic control modules and photovoltaic inverter IGBT chips generate large amounts of heat and voltage, and plastic shells are prone to aging and leakage.
Domestic new energy installed capacity and new energy vehicle production and sales data are at a high level, driving the purchase of ceramic packaging structural parts to rise.
From the perspective of the global supply chain, overseas high-end ceramic substrate manufacturers have tight production capacity. International trade fluctuations have caused domestic packaging and testing companies to increase the procurement of local ceramic materials. The capacity utilization rate of local manufacturers has increased. This is the reason for the increased attention of the ceramic materials industry chain.
2. Common misunderstandings: Three major misunderstandings of ceramic packaging materials by the public
Myth 1:Many people think that ceramic materials are ordinary ceramics with low technical thresholds.
In fact, there are many subcategories of electronic-specific ceramics, which require high powder purity and particle uniformity. The process of purifying high-purity ceramic powder and precision casting into substrates has long been mastered by overseas companies.
Myth 2: Some people think that plastic packaging will be replaced by ceramic packaging, and traditional packaging will be eliminated.
However, consumer electronics chips and low-end MCU chips pursue cost performance, and the cost advantage of plastic packaging cannot be replaced in the short term. Plastic packaging and ceramic packaging are complementary.
Myth 3: Some people see overcapacity when they see the increasing popularity of the ceramic materials industry chain.
In fact, most of the new domestic production projects are focused on mid- to low-end alumina ceramic substrates. There is still a gap in the domestic production capacity of high-end aluminum nitride ceramic substrates and high-frequency special ceramic casings.
3. Objective advantages: With multiple attributes, ceramic materials bind the long-term needs of high-end packaging
1. Physical properties adapt to the development direction of high-end chips
The high thermal conductivity, high insulation, and high temperature resistance properties of ceramic materials make them suitable for high-end packaging.
The third-generation semiconductor chip has a high operating temperature, and conventional plastic packaging materials have low temperature resistance. The aluminum nitride ceramics can withstand temperatures exceeding 600°C, meeting the needs of wide bandgap semiconductor packaging.
With the miniaturization and high-power development of chips, the thermal conductivity advantages of ceramic substrates have become the selection criteria for chip companies.
2. Favoring localization policies and accelerating the substitution of local materials
According to official financial media, advanced materials and advanced packaging have been included in key areas, and local industrial subsidies and special scientific research funds are tilted towards electronic ceramics.
In order to ensure the security of the supply chain, downstream packaging and testing companies actively promote the verification and introduction of domestic materials to ensure orders from ceramic material companies.
3. Simultaneous capacity expansion of multiple downstream tracks opens up room for incremental demand
In addition to semiconductor packaging, optical communication high-speed optical modules, aerospace and military electronic components, and energy storage power devices are all increasing the purchase of ceramic materials.
The energy storage industry is the main driver of new demand. The internal power chips of energy storage converters use ceramic packaging structural components. Multi-track efforts have broken the single dependence of ceramic materials on the semiconductor industry.
4. Existing shortcomings: the unavoidable real pain points behind the rapid development of the industry
First,the external dependence on high-end core raw materials has not been completely resolved.
The production of electronic ceramics requires high-purity chemical raw materials and special sintering aids. Some domestic mass production is not stable enough. Leading manufacturers still need to import key additives. Fluctuating raw material costs compress corporate profits.
Second,The gap in mass production yield limits the volume of high-end products.
The mass production yield rate of high-end aluminum nitride ceramic substrates of leading overseas companies is high, while the large-scale mass production of domestic companies has high defective products, which increases the unit production cost, and the price advantage of domestic high-end ceramic products is weak.
Thirdly, industry standards have not yet been unified, and the product verification cycle is long.
There are many subdivided categories of domestic electronic ceramic packaging materials, different companies’ product selection standards are not unified, and the verification period for new ceramic substrates entering the downstream supply chain is long, which restricts the short-term revenue growth of small and medium-sized enterprises.
5. Long-term rational view: The turning point has appeared, but be careful not to blindly follow the trend and hype in the short term
From the long-term development of the industry, the trend of advanced semiconductor packaging will not be reversed. Automotive electronics, third-generation semiconductors, and high-speed optical modules are high-prosperity tracks. The long-term growth logic of ceramic materials is supported by fundamentals. The industry turning point comes from the growth of downstream demand.
But ordinary observers must rationally distinguish between the popularity of the concept and the actual operating level of the company.
After the popularity of the track has increased, many concept companies have attracted attention. However, these companies have no core production capacity and technology, and it is difficult to share industry dividends.
Based on the macro-economy, the central bank guides the financing of manufacturing entities, and funds are tilted towards entities with technology implementation and production capacity. The sustainability of pure speculation is weak.
Practitioners should pay attention to industrial technology iteration and domestic substitution progress, rather than being influenced by short-term market enthusiasm.
The localization of electronic ceramics needs to go through a process of technical polishing, yield improvement, and customer verification. A short-term rapid explosion is not in line with the laws of the real industry and will lengthen the 3-5 year cycle. As shortcomings are made up, the growth space on the track will gradually be realized.
Interaction at the end of the article: When you usually pay attention to the semiconductor segmentation track, do you give priority to upstream materials or downstream terminal demand?
Do you think the next segment where ceramic packaging materials will increase in volume first will be automotive or communications?
Welcome to leave your opinions in the comment area.
