In 2026, China’s manufacturing will show eye-catching new developments, which CITIC Construction Investment has interpreted in detail, mainly involving the two fields of construction machinery and humanoid robots.
In terms of construction machinery, it has shown a good trend of rising volume and price, and has entered a strong business cycle.
From the perspective of sales, internal and external demand resonated and continued to exceed expectations.
In May 2026, excavator sales reached 24,794 units, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%, of which 11,628 were domestic, a year-on-year increase of 38.6%, and 13,166 were exported, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%.
The cumulative sales volume in the first five months was 126,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 24.7%, of which 68,100 were domestic units, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%, and 58,700 export units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 32.9%.
Domestic sales of non-excavation categories such as truck cranes, crawler cranes, graders, and road rollers increased by 30% to 70%, and exports increased by 8% to 25%, indicating a comprehensive recovery.
In terms of price, leading companies collectively raised prices, starting an upward cycle.
Sany Heavy Industry will increase the price of excavators by 5% from May 15; XCMG will increase the price of excavators by 3% – 5% from June 1; cranes will increase by 2% – 5% from July 1; Liugong will increase the price of excavators by 3% – 5% from May 20.
The logic of the price increase lies in the increase in raw material prices, improvement in the supply and demand pattern, renewal peaks, and increased concentration of leading players, which have returned corporate pricing power.
Core driving factors include the replacement cycle, 2019-2021, and peak equipment entering the 8-10 year replacement period, 2025-
In terms of domestic demand, at the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, major infrastructure projects such as the Yajiang Hydropower Station (1.2 trillion), the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway, and the high-speed railway along the Yangtze River have started intensively. In terms of external demand, the high cost performance of domestic products and the recovery of overseas infrastructure have led to continuous high growth in exports, becoming a core growth pole; in terms of pattern optimization, backward production capacity has been cleared after three years of adjustment, and enterprises such as Sany, Xugong, and Liugong have reached a new high in concentration and have the ability to raise prices.
In the field of humanoid robots, mass production is accelerating, and 2026 will become the first year of commercialization.
The mass production node is clear, from demo to large-scale delivery.
Tesla Optimus V3 will be mass-produced in Q2 of 2026. The original Model S/X production line in Fremont will be renovated with an annual production capacity of 100,000 units and a target of 500,000 units in 2027.
Domestic leading companies such as Zhiyuan G2 have been commercially delivered (over 100 million orders), Yushu IPO has passed, and UBTECH/Dacheng/Xiaomi are accelerating their launch. Global shipments are expected to be 50,000 units + in 2026, a 7-fold increase year-on-year.
The industrial chain has also made breakthroughs, with core parts and components being localized and costs reduced.
In terms of joint modules, the localization rate of domestic harmonic reducers, frameless motors, and encoders exceeds 70%, the cost is reduced by 50%, and the automated production line is launched, with an annual production capacity of 100,000 units +.
In terms of dexterous hands + sensors, tactile/force sensors, lead screws, and actuators increase the volume, increase the degree of freedom + upgrade tactile accuracy, and are suitable for industrial/logistics scenarios.
In terms of embodied intelligence, physical AI (Physical AI) has become the core logic, robots are the best physical carriers of AI, and Tesla Cosmos and NVIDIA Isaac Sim accelerate training data closed loops.
In terms of scene implementation, from the laboratory to the factory/logistics.
In the field of industrial manufacturing, it is used in automobile parts and 3C electronic assembly. The annual rent for a single unit is hundreds of thousands, and the return on investment is 1-2 years.
In terms of logistics and warehousing, the sorting/handling efficiency is close to that of humans (the gap is <2%), and 249,560 pieces/9 days of autonomous operation have been achieved.
In the field of public services, pilot projects for inspections, tour guides, and elderly care have been implemented, and orders have grown rapidly.
CITIC Construction Investment’s core conclusion points out that the rise in volume and price of construction machinery confirms a strong cycle, driven by three drivers: renewal, infrastructure, and overseas expansion, and the profitability of leading companies is highly certain to be restored; the inflection point for mass production of humanoid robots has arrived, and physical AI + domestic supply chain resonance will begin commercialization in 2026, making it the next high-growth engine for Chinese manufacturing.
