In 2026, global cross-border e-commerce is undergoing a profound structural change.
According to relevant reports, the global cross-border B2C e-commerce market will grow from US$1.82 trillion in 2025 to US$2.29 trillion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.3%, and is expected to climb to US$5.59 trillion by 2030.
At the same time, the global cross-border e-commerce market will continue to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 18.7% from 2026 to 2032, and the market size is expected to reach US$4.574 billion by the end of the forecast period.
From the Chinese market, the scale of China’s cross-border e-commerce market will grow from 1,888 billion yuan to 3,257.4 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024, and is expected to reach 4,434.9 billion yuan in 2026.
The number of cross-border e-commerce companies in China has exceeded 120,000, with a total of more than 30,000 overseas registered trademarks, and the branding process has accelerated across the board.
However, the other side of the data is the shift in growth speed and the differentiation of patterns.
In 2025, the growth logic of global cross-border e-commerce has undergone a fundamental change. The growth rate of global retail e-commerce sales has continued to decline from 17.1% during the epidemic dividend period in 2021, falling below 10% for the first time in 2023, and stabilizing at the new normal of single digits of 8.8% in 2025.
In 2026, global e-commerce revenue will exceed US$5 trillion for the first time, reaching US$5.36 trillion, but the growth rate will further slow down to 8.6%, which is a sharp gap from the average annual growth rate of 14% from 2017 to 2024.
Over time, the underlying logic of cross-border e-commerce has undergone a fundamental shift – from the past competition of price and traffic to the deep-water area of competition for brand assets and full-link efficiency.
The business model of “winning through quantity” by putting a large number of low-priced products on shelves has gradually declined. More companies are turning to focus on high-value boutique areas, from product development, supply chain management to brand marketing, with the goal of sustainable profits.
The year 2026 is a strategic watershed for the cross-border e-commerce industry. The industry has moved from “goods connecting the world” to the mental era of “intelligent global connectivity”.
If branding is the steering wheel of cross-border e-commerce, then AI and social e-commerce are the twin engines driving the industry into deep water.
The global AI e-commerce market will grow from US$9.12 billion in 2025 to US$10.5 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.1%, and is expected to climb to US$19.12 billion by 2030.
In 2026, AI will move from technological paradigm innovation and business logic reconstruction to industrial application, and cross-border e-commerce and e-commerce services will be the first to benefit.
The Adobe Digital Insights report shows that in the first quarter of 2026, retail traffic brought by AI increased by 393% year-on-year. The conversion rate of AI visitors was 42% higher than that of non-AI visitors, and the revenue per visit was 37% higher.
AI is being upgraded from an auxiliary tool to improve efficiency to a core variable that changes the competitive logic of the industry, empowering the entire link including content production, inventory management, customer service, and precision marketing.
Social e-commerce is another force reshaping the global retail landscape.
A Flywheel report from a business survey and marketing agency predicts that by the end of 2026, TikTok Shop’s total transaction volume is expected to reach approximately US$87 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 56%; by 2030, ByteDance’s market share in global e-commerce sales is expected to reach 14.6%, becoming the world’s third largest retailer.
In the first quarter of 2026, the total GMV of TikTok Shop’s 10 sites around the world has reached 27.453 billion U.S. dollars. The U.S. site ranked first with 6.985 billion U.S. dollars, and the growth rate of the Mexican site reached an astonishing 4107%.
At the same time, the global live broadcast e-commerce market is expected to grow from US$22.46 billion in 2025 to US$30.66 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.5%.
When “ordering through videos” becomes the new normal for global consumption, the creativity of content is replacing traditional channel capabilities and becoming the new core barrier for cross-border e-commerce.
The drastic changes in the market structure are also worthy of attention.
In 2026, global e-commerce revenue growth will slow down to 8.6% year-on-year, but Latin American e-commerce will lead the world with a growth rate of 12.4%, which is approximately 1.5 times the global average.
The total Latin American e-commerce transaction volume is expected to reach approximately US$215.3 billion in 2026.
The three major markets of Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina contribute about 85% of regional e-commerce sales, but the e-commerce penetration rate is only about 14%, which is far lower than China’s 32% and the global average of 23%. There is huge room for growth.
When the growth rates of mature markets in Europe and the United States are generally lower than 5% and enter a new stage of stock competition, the rebalancing of the regional market structure has become unstoppable – the rise of emerging markets is opening up a new value depression for cross-border e-commerce.
The trend is already clear – branding leads the way, AI reshapes efficiency, social e-commerce opens up new channels, and emerging markets open up new space.
However, in the face of such a complicated overseas ecosystem, how can companies find the fulcrum of “one-click access”?
The answer is written in the 2026 China Brand Overseas Expo (referred to as the “Expo”) to be held at the Hainan International Convention and Exhibition Center from October 20 to 22.
As the first large-scale national exhibition in China that focuses on brands going overseas, the Expo has the theme of “Serving Brands Going Overseas and Sharing the Global Future”, with a total planned exhibition area of 90,000 square meters. It has carefully set up seven theme exhibition halls to gather high-quality brands from the entire industry chain and accurately connect with embassies and consulates, buyers and dealers in China around the world. It aims to build a one-stop overseas service platform of “official docking + business negotiation + order procurement + channel landing”.
The exhibition has attracted well-known companies such as Gree Electric Appliances, Juran Smart Home, and Huitian to sign up to participate in the exhibition. The planned core purchasing group lineup also includes global mainstream channels such as Walmart China Global Procurement Center, JD.com International Procurement Division, Temu Global Supplier Management Team, and TikTok Shop Southeast Asia Purchasing Group.
Among the seven major exhibition halls of the expo, Hall 2, the cross-border e-commerce ecological brand hall, is the core hub of “one-click access”.
As a cross-border e-commerce full-link ecological display platform built by the Expo, Hall 2 brings together China’s core cross-border e-commerce platforms and leading comprehensive service companies, covering comprehensive and vertical cross-border trading platforms, as well as full-process comprehensive services such as customs declaration and inspection, foreign exchange settlement, compliance consulting, and brand incubation, providing Chinese enterprises with comprehensive solutions from “going out” to “going in”.
Here, foreign businessmen can go directly to the source factories of China’s cross-border products, and suppliers can display popular cross-border sources of goods adapted to the global market, international logistics lines, and overseas warehouse layouts. Relying on the resources of the chamber of commerce, they can achieve precise matching of the upstream and downstream of the supply chain, and open up a full link from “factories directly to overseas terminals.”
More importantly, Hall 2 also focuses on emerging overseas markets such as cross-border live broadcasting and social e-commerce. It brings together cutting-edge business formats such as live streaming operation tools, overseas live broadcast bases, community private domain construction, and multi-scenario overseas business solutions. It is adapted to global mainstream platforms such as TikTok and Amazon Live Broadcasting, helping Chinese companies seize opportunities in overseas markets with the help of new business formats.
Whether you are a platform company looking for full-process overseas services, a manufacturer with high-quality supply, or a service provider deeply involved in cross-border logistics, payment, compliance, and live broadcast operations, Hall 2 will be an excellent stage for you to connect with global resources and expand your business territory.
Cross-border e-commerce is no longer a test field for a few pioneers, but the only way for Chinese brands to go global.
The market growth rate is changing gears, the competition dimension is rising, and the regional map is being restructured—in this era full of changes and opportunities, it is no longer sustainable to go it alone. Only by integrating into a complete, efficient, and trustworthy overseas ecosystem can we move forward steadily in the wave of globalization.
The cross-border e-commerce ecological brand pavilion in Hall 2 of the 2026 China Brands Going Overseas Expo looks forward to working hand in hand with every Chinese brand with global ambitions and every service organization that is deeply involved in going overseas to build a full-link ecosystem for Chinese brands going overseas.
Hainan in October, see you there or not!
