Recently, the LianLian Cross-border Merchant Confidence Index 2025 Annual Review Report released by Lianlian International shows that in 2025, cross-border sellers will be under the pressure of costs and competition, while still maintaining investment and confidence in future operations.
The LianLian Cross-border Merchant Confidence Index was launched in January 2025 by its cross-border payment brand Lianlian International. It aims to continuously track the current operating status and future expectations of sellers through monthly surveys, and provide valuable insights and decision-making support for the industry.
The index consists of the total index, expected index and spot index.
Among them, the spot index reflects sellers’ views on the current situation, the expectation index reflects sellers’ views on expectations in the next three months, and the overall index is calculated from the spot index and the expectation index to reflect cross-border e-commerce sellers’ expectations for the future overseas economy, industry environment and their own operating conditions. An index value greater than 100 means optimism, equal to 100 means neutral, and less than 100 means pessimism.
According to data from the annual review report, the cross-border merchant confidence index in 2025 showed significant differentiation characteristics: the overall index ran stably in the high range of 105-119 throughout the year, while the spot index remained at a relatively low level of 84-93 (always below the 100 baseline), reflecting the cautious attitude and operational pressure in the real business environment; the expectation index continued to run in the optimistic range of 125-148, showing sellers’ long-term confidence in future development.
Lianlian International analysis pointed out that overall, the continued deviation between the expected index and the spot index reveals a key trend: Although cross-border merchants generally face real challenges such as high costs and intensified competition, they still maintain strong optimistic expectations for future sales performance and industry recovery.
This situation of “under pressure now but promising in the future” constitutes a unique confidence map in the field of cross-border trade in 2025.
At the same time, from the perspective of cross-border e-commerce categories, different categories show significant structural differentiation due to differences in product characteristics, target markets, policy sensitivity and supply chain complexity.
In 2025, this differentiation will be further amplified in the context of macro uncertainty.
Specifically, the confidence of Health & Beauty and Automotive & Industrial was higher than the general index most of the year, showing strong resistance to volatility.
Health and beauty benefit from global consumption rigidity and high-end trends; the automobile industry relies on DIY demand and sellers’ strong cost-passing ability.
Confidence in consumer electronics (Electronics & Gadgets), Home & Garden (Home & Garden) and Fashion & Apparel has fluctuated significantly.
Mainly because these categories are strongly related to promotion nodes, tariff policies, and inventory cycles. For example, consumer electronics rebounded sharply due to demand stimulation at the end of the year, while home furnishings experienced a correction under the pressure of logistics costs at the end of the year.
Toys & Hobbies, Pet Supplies and Sports & Outdoors are extremely sensitive to tariffs, shipping costs and new compliance policies in specific markets (such as EU EN71, CBAM), and their confidence often switches rapidly depending on the direction of policy winds.
Lianlian International pointed out that the 2025 category confidence index revealed that sellers have shifted from focusing on “universal growth” to focusing on “structural opportunities.”
In the future, it is recommended that cross-border sellers seek certainty in differentiation, including turning to categories with rigid demand and relatively stable policies, such as health and beauty. In volatile categories such as consumer electronics and fashion, they must accurately bet on policy windows and peak season cycles. For categories such as toys and beauty products, they need to respond to compliance requirements in advance and establish “compliance barriers.”
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, my country’s cross-border e-commerce imports and exports in 2025 will be 2.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 69.7% over 2020, showing strong resilience and becoming an important engine for foreign trade growth.
However, with the complex and ever-changing international trade environment, fierce platform competition, constantly changing policies and costs… uncertainty has become the new normal for cross-border merchants.
In cross-border markets where uncertainty has become the norm, what merchants are most anxious about is often not “no information” but too much information, but they don’t know which one to believe: Are policies tightening or relaxing?
Is the overall sentiment in the industry optimistic or turning cautious?
Where is the next hot spot or risk?
These issues arise repeatedly in the decision-making of cross-border merchants almost every day.
The LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index not only provides real and effective data reference and strategic guidance for sellers and ecological participants, but also provides a stable and referenceable confidence observation coordinate for the industry. It also fills the gap in quantitative confidence index in the domestic cross-border e-commerce field.
Lianlian International stated, “As one of the leading payment platforms that has been deeply involved in cross-border e-commerce for many years and connects a large number of sellers, we can not only provide payment services, but also hope to use our accumulated resource advantages to contribute a reference ‘thermometer’ and ‘barometer’ to the industry.
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In the future, LianLian International will continue to optimize the “LianLian Cross-border Merchant Confidence Index” based on user needs and market changes, continue to provide more valuable forward-looking insights for the cross-border e-commerce industry, and inject a steady stream of “LianLian” wisdom into the high-quality development of foreign trade.
