The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that it is necessary to focus on the development of new productive forces, promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, and chart the direction for the high-quality development of high-end manufacturing.
Against this background, the Southwest Securities Research Institute released the report “Embracing Technology, Focusing on the New Economy – Investment Strategy for the Machinery Industry in 2026”, which systematically sorted out the core tracks and investment opportunities for the machinery industry to achieve breakthroughs in 2026 relying on new productivity.
The “Machinery Industry Investment Strategy” points out that humanoid robots are an epic industry opportunity supported by global technology iterations and domestic policies.
In 2025, this field has achieved a critical breakthrough from 0 to 1; in 2026, it will enter the initial stage of breakthrough from 1 to 10. The industry level is mainly characterized by two major characteristics: fixed-point implementation of the supply chain and continuous iteration of core technologies. The investment strategy recommends focusing on core links, insisting on staying true to the unexpected, and seizing the structural opportunities brought by technological breakthroughs.
In the field of gas turbines, driven by the accelerated construction of AI data centers, global electricity demand has surged, directly leading to a shortage of gas turbines, generator sets and other markets. Overseas leading manufacturers are continuing to expand production capacity to cope with the gap.
Data shows that current gas turbine orders from overseas giants such as Siemens Energy, GE Vernova, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have been scheduled beyond 2030, and the delivery cycle of high-power density models has even been extended to 2032. The global supply and demand gap is as high as 40%.
Domestically, main engine plants, skid manufacturers, and parts manufacturers are expected to fully benefit from the current upward cycle of power demand, in which AI development has become the biggest variable driving demand changes. At the same time, my country’s gas turbine localization process is accelerating, with China Aviation Development’s “Taihang” series, CSSC CGT3 and other models achieving breakthroughs, and the localization rate of core parts increasing to about 90%, gradually breaking the overseas technology monopoly.
The field of controllable nuclear fusion also deserves special attention.
It is predicted that the global nuclear fusion market is expected to reach 500 billion US dollars in 2030 and exceed one trillion US dollars in 2050. Currently, this field has entered the eve of industrialization, and upstream investment is accelerating.
Focusing on the country, the development of controllable nuclear fusion has formed a two-wheel drive pattern of “state leadership” and “market innovation”. It has reached the world’s leading level in core technical fields such as low-temperature superconductivity and high-strength steel. Superconducting material production technology has become independent and controllable and accounts for 70% of the global market share. However, continued efforts are still needed in terms of material research, talent reserves, and standard improvement.
In the field of general equipment, it is necessary to focus on the investment opportunities brought about by the structural high growth in demand in the downstream technology field.
Currently, the overall demand for general equipment is still hovering at the bottom and has not shown significant improvement. However, macro policy support continues to increase, and we are waiting for the demand side to reach an inflection point.
Under the policy guidance of strengthening the chain, the localization of the industrial mother machine industry chain is imperative. In 2026, my country will basically establish a high-quality standard system for industrial mother machines, lead industry optimization and upgrading with standard improvement, and enhance the resilience of the industrial chain and supply chain.
As an important application scenario for new productivity, the low-altitude economy will usher in a critical development period in 2026.
At the national level, the low-altitude economy has been included in the government work report for three consecutive years, and has been upgraded to an “emerging pillar industry.” The newly revised “Civil Aviation Law of the People’s Republic of China” will be officially implemented on July 1, providing legal protection for the development of the industry; at the local level
, Guangdong, Shenzhen, Qingdao, Chongqing and other places have accelerated pilot projects to form a differentiated development pattern. Guangdong has gathered more than 30% of the country’s industrial chain enterprises, Qingdao has released tens of billions of scenario opportunities, and Shenzhen plans to build 1,200 low-altitude take-off and landing points by the end of the year.
As airspace control policies continue to be optimized, OEM technology iterations accelerate, and supply chains continue to mature, all links in the low-altitude economic industry chain will fully benefit.
In the field of construction machinery, domestic and foreign demand prospects are optimistic in 2026.
In the domestic market, core models such as excavators have entered an eight-year mandatory update period, and replacement demand is high. Coupled with the implementation of National IV standards and the advancement of infrastructure and farmland water conservancy construction, domestic demand is expected to rebound; in overseas markets, Asia, Africa and Latin America have a higher growth rate, and European and American market data continue to improve. It is expected that the annual export scale will exceed 60 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of more than 15%, of which the export growth rate of excavators is expected to reach 40%, and the proportion of electrification will rise to 20%.
In addition, leading companies in rail transit, oilfield equipment, process industry, some special equipment and other subdivisions also deserve special attention due to their technological advantages and market competitiveness.
However, there are also risks of a sharp decline in manufacturing investment, risks of production capacity expansion falling short of expectations, risks of industry competition deteriorating, and risks of new technology development falling short of expectations.
