In April 2026, the largest export tax rebate policy adjustment in recent years was officially implemented. Tax rebate policies in many fields such as photovoltaics, batteries, and e-cigarettes ushered in major changes, directly restructuring the cost and pricing logic of foreign trade companies, and making export tax rebates once again become the core focus of foreign trade practitioners and industry researchers.
Many companies are facing the impact of the cancellation of tax rebates and reduction of tax rebate rates, and are trapped in the dilemma of rising costs and compressed profits. However, they have little understanding of the underlying logic of policy adjustments, industry impacts and response directions.
This article will provide an in-depth analysis of the current status and future trends of export tax rebates from four dimensions: the core logic of export tax rebates, interpretation of the 2026 New Deal, dismantling of multi-industry impacts, and prediction of future trends, and help everyone establish a complete cognitive system for export tax rebates.
1. The core logic of export tax rebates: not “tax-free”, but policy support for fair competition
Many practitioners have misunderstandings about export tax rebates, equating them with “export tax-free”. In fact, there is an essential difference between the two.
The core logic of export tax rebates is to refund the value-added tax and other turnover taxes paid during the domestic production and circulation of exported goods, so that Chinese products can participate in international competition at a cost excluding domestic turnover taxes and achieve fair connection between domestic and foreign markets. This is also a policy tool commonly used in global trade.
To put it simply, goods sold domestically will include value-added tax and other taxes, while the final consumers of exported goods are abroad and do not need to pay these taxes and fees to the Chinese government.
If taxes and fees paid are not refunded, exported goods will enter the international market with domestic taxes and fees, and lose price competitiveness compared with similar products from other countries.
Industry research shows that export tax rebates can effectively reduce enterprises’ export costs by 3%-8%, and some industries with high tax rebate rates can even increase profit margins by more than 10%. It is not only an important support policy for the country to encourage exports, but also a key support for foreign trade companies to enhance their core competitiveness.
It needs to be made clear that export tax rebates are not available to all enterprises and all commodities. The core premise is that the enterprise has general taxpayer qualifications, the products meet the scope of tax rebates, and strictly follows compliance procedures such as filing and declaration. “Four self-disappearances” footing business is strictly prohibited, otherwise it will be suspected of tax fraud and face serious legal risks.
II. Interpretation of the New Export Tax Rebate Policy in 2026: Adjustment Scope and Core Changes
In January 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued an announcement clarifying that the export tax rebate policy adjustment will be implemented from April 1. This adjustment covers a wide range and has a high degree of industrial chain correlation, breaking the stable policy pattern for many years. The core changes are concentrated in three aspects, directly affecting the development of multiple industries.
First, export tax rebates are directly canceled for some products, including photovoltaic products, methanol, traditional building materials (cement products, architectural glass, ceramic tiles, etc.), e-cigarettes, etc.
Among them, the export value-added tax rebate for photovoltaic products has been completely cancelled, and the 13% value-added tax rebate for all categories of methanol (including green methanol) has been cancelled. Traditional building materials cover the entire industry chain such as stone processing and cement prefabricated components. The 13% export value-added tax rebate for e-cigarettes has also been officially cancelled. This is also the most direct impact of this adjustment.
Second, the tax rebate rate for some products will be reduced in stages, the most representative of which is battery products. From April 1 to December 31, 2026, the tax rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and will be completely canceled from January 1, 2027, leaving a certain buffer period for relevant companies to adjust.
Third, the policy orientation highlights “improving quality and increasing efficiency”. Green high-end building materials such as light steel villas and prefabricated buildings have not been included in the cancellation list. Instead, they continue to enjoy policy preferences such as immediate refund of value-added tax and priority customs clearance. This reflects the country’s core idea of guiding the industry to transform towards high quality and green through export tax rebate policies.
Most practitioners reported that this policy adjustment is not “one size fits all”, but accurately connects the pain points of industrial development and promotes the industry’s shift from policy-driven to market-based competition.
Three, 2026
The impact of the 2019 New Deal on multiple industries: differentiation is obvious, and survival of the fittest is accelerating
The impact of this adjustment on the export tax rebate policy on different industries is significantly different. The core depends on the three dimensions of industry export proportion, profit margin, and core competitiveness. Among them, the photovoltaic and e-cigarette industries have been hardest hit, and the traditional
The building materials and green methanol industries face differentiated challenges, which are broken down as follows:
(1) Photovoltaic industry: the most direct impact, industry reshuffle is accelerating
The photovoltaic industry is the key area for this tax rebate policy adjustment, and the cancellation of tax rebates directly hits the pain point of “volume increase and price reduction” in the industry.
Previously, the photovoltaic industry has been trapped in a vicious price war for a long time, with extremely limited profit margins. In some periods of 2025, there was a paradox of increasing export volume but declining total export volume, and the cancellation of tax rebates further compressed corporate profits.
Taking the calculation data of Shanghai Nonferrous Network as a reference, for 210R components alone, after the tax rebate is cancelled, the export profit of each component will be reduced by 46 yuan to 51 yuan.
In the face of the impact, leading companies responded quickly and raised the prices of export products by up to 30% to offset cost pressures. However, small and medium-sized manufacturers lacking core competitiveness faced a severe test of survival because they were unable to withstand rising costs and could not transfer pressure through price increases.
Industry insiders generally believe that this tax rebate adjustment is an important signal for the transformation of the photovoltaic industry. It will cause cost pain in the short term, but in the long term it will accelerate the survival of the fittest and promote the industry’s shift from scale expansion and price competition to innovation-driven and high-quality development. Industry concentration is expected to further increase.
(2) E-cigarette industry: dual pressures are stacked, and small and medium-sized manufacturers are facing elimination
The cancellation of the 13% export tax rebate for e-cigarette products cannot be underestimated, and the impact on the industry cannot be underestimated, especially on export-oriented factories with low gross profits and reliance on price competition.
The gross profit margin of most such factories is only between 5% and 10%. The cancellation of tax rebates is equivalent to directly erasing their main source of profits. Many small and medium-sized factories are facing the fate of being quickly eliminated.
What deserves more attention is that the e-cigarette industry is also facing the pressure of tighter supervision. The State Tobacco Monopoly Administration plans to implement total volume management and approved production capacity of manufacturing companies. Under the dual effects of tax rebate cancellation and regulatory tightening, the industry is moving from “policy buffering” to the “unbuffered competition” stage. Orders are accelerating to concentrate on leading compliance companies with scale, technology and brand advantages, and the industry structure will usher in a major restructuring.
(3) Other industries: differentiated impact, highlighted transformation needs
In the methanol industry, due to the extremely low proportion of export volume in total production capacity (150,000 tons to 400,000 tons per year, corresponding to an annual production capacity of over 100 million tons), the cancellation of tax rebates will have little impact on the industry as a whole, but green methanol will be greatly affected.
At present, domestic green methanol production costs are much higher than traditional methanol, and it is highly dependent on the international market. The cancellation of tax rebates will directly increase its export costs and reduce international price competitiveness. Projects originally planned for export need to reconsider their business models.
In the traditional building materials industry, the cancellation of tax rebates will directly increase the export cost of related products by 3%-5%, forcing companies to accelerate their transformation. Green high-end categories such as light steel villas and prefabricated buildings have become the core beneficiaries of this adjustment because they enjoy policy preferences, and have also promoted the transformation of the entire building materials industry into a green and high-end one.
4. Forecast of the future trend of export tax rebates and suggestions for corporate response
Based on the 2026 new policy guidance and the current status of industry development, future export tax rebate policies will show three major trends: “precision, guidance, and standardization.” Companies need to proactively adjust their strategies to adapt to policy changes and avoid business risks.
From the perspective of policy trends, first of all, precise adjustments will become the norm, and subsequent tax rebate policies may further focus on high-energy-consuming, low-value-added industries, gradually cancel or reduce tax rebates for related products, and increase policy support for green, high-end, and high-value-added industries to achieve “support for the good and limit the bad”; secondly, policy guidance will continue to fit the industry.
The demand for high-quality development, in coordination with policies such as environmental protection and industrial upgrading, will guide enterprises to shift from “fighting for price” to “fighting for capabilities”; finally, supervision will be more standardized, and the review of export tax refund filing, declaration, document retention and other aspects will be further stringent. Tax fraud, illegal declaration and other behaviors will face more severe penalties, and corporate compliance costs will be further increased.
There are three core suggestions for enterprises to respond: first, accurately grasp the policy details, promptly check the tax refund rate and policy adjustments of their own products, and obtain information through formal channels such as the official website of the State Administration of Taxation and the Electronic Taxation Bureau to avoid losses caused by policy cognitive deviations; second, optimize the product structure, enhance core competitiveness, and reduce concerns about tax refund policies.
Dependence, especially in industries that have been greatly affected, can increase added value and hedge cost pressures through technological innovation and product upgrades; third, standardize compliance operations, strictly follow the requirements to complete tax refund filing, document retention, declaration and other processes to avoid failure to refund or face penalties due to illegal operations; at the same time, rationally plan funds to cope with the pressure of capital occupation caused by adjustments to tax refund policies.
In summary, the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy in 2026 is essentially an important measure for the country to promote the high-quality development of the foreign trade industry. It will cause pain to some industries in the short term, but in the long term it will promote the optimization and upgrading of the industry and achieve more sustainable development.
For foreign trade companies, only by thoroughly understanding the policies, proactively transforming, and operating in compliance can they gain a firm foothold in policy adjustments and seize industry development opportunities.
