A few days ago, the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics announced a brief summary of economic performance in the first quarter.
Data show that since the beginning of this year, Guangdong’s economic performance has continued to rebound and has made a good start.
According to the unified accounting results of regional GDP, in the first quarter, Guangdong achieved a regional GDP of 3.495034 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% at constant prices, setting a new high in first-quarter growth in the past five years.
Looking carefully at this report card, what is the quality of high-quality development?
What impact will the AI boom have on Guangdong?
What is the real support for the expansion of foreign trade against the trend?
Some experts have interpreted this.
Against the current backdrop of a complex and turbulent international environment and intensifying external uncertainties, Guangdong, a country with a huge economy, delivered an outstanding performance that exceeded expectations in the first quarter, laying a solid foundation for economic development throughout the year.
Industrial development: The AI industry is strongly empowered and the advantages of the industrial chain continue to be released
In the first quarter of economic growth, the industrial sector performed outstandingly, with the added value of industries above designated size increasing by 5.4%, of which the computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries increased by 13.4%.
Experts pointed out that Guangdong has fully benefited from this round of AI dividends and has significant advantages.
Guangdong has a strong foundation in the ICT industry and has formed a complete AI industry chain layout, covering all upstream and downstream links such as hardware manufacturing and computing power support. It fully enjoys the dividends of AI industry development and continues to consolidate its industrial competitive advantages.
From an industry perspective, orders from core companies such as optical modules and PCBs are in short supply, and some orders have been scheduled for two years. Industry growth is sustainable in the long term.
Leading enterprises have become an important support for industrial upgrading.
Huawei’s revenue has returned to pre-sanctions levels, BYD has deployed new energy vehicles and high-end chips, and traditional manufacturing companies such as Luxshare Precision have increased their R&D support for emerging industries. The province has a complete industrial system, a sound industrial ecology, and strong global market competitiveness.
As the radiation effect of the AI industry continues to expand, Token going overseas has become a new growth track.
Shantou has built a complete ecological closed loop for Token exports to the sea, relying on green power resources such as offshore wind power and superimposing the location advantages of offshore optical cable hubs. In the future, Guangdong will rely on hard technology strength, combined with the construction of green data centers, from single product exports to AI computing power service outputs, forming a new growth point for the industry.
Foreign trade exports: diversified market layout, accelerated innovation of trade models
Guangdong’s total import and export volume in the first quarter reached 2.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.4%, and the scale hit a record high.
The activity of export-oriented businesses has increased. Under the complex and severe external environment, Guangdong’s foreign trade has achieved “expansion against the trend.”
On the one hand, the core support comes from the complete industrial chain ecology of the Greater Bay Area, with a solid industrial foundation and strong supply capacity; on the other hand, the trade market continues to be diversified, the scale of trade with countries along the “Belt and Road” has steadily increased, and new overseas markets have been continuously explored.
China’s foreign trade development logic is currently undergoing profound changes, bidding farewell to the traditional model of large-scale, low-cost, and price competition.
The rise of small, medium and micro enterprises and start-up groups is focusing on overseas vertical segmentation scenarios and taking a refined and high value-added development route.
This type of business entity has low operating costs, is deeply involved in niche markets, relies on the complete industrial chain of the Greater Bay Area, accurately matches customized needs, and reaps higher product premiums.
The new model has formed a pattern of misaligned development and complementary symbiosis with large enterprises. Large enterprises continue to deeply explore the mass mainstream market, while small and medium-sized entities seize the vertical segmentation track, which can not only absorb regional excess production capacity, but also enhance the overall industrial value of foreign trade, becoming a new potential point for foreign trade growth.
Industrial transformation: investment intensity increased, manufacturing upgrades steadily advanced
Investment in equipment and tools surged by 42.3%, and the proportion of advanced manufacturing industry rose to 56.7%.
In the first quarter, Guangdong’s industrial transformation and upgrading accelerated, and enterprises had a strong willingness to invest in technological transformation. The province’s equipment investment increased by 42.3% year-on-year.
In the overall economic pressure environment, companies proactively increase investment in equipment updates, technological transformation and R&D, which is a positive signal for industrial upgrading.
The industrial structure continues to be optimized, with the added value of advanced manufacturing accounting for 56.7% of industries above designated size, and the trend of high-end development is clear.
However, the turning point in the transformation of the manufacturing industry towards comprehensive high-endization still needs to be viewed rationally.
At present, China has achieved independent breakthroughs in high-end equipment, core equipment and other fields, but the proportion of localization of key components, core basic materials and other links is low, mass production and yield are insufficient, and they are still restricted by external supply chains.
There is no need to deliberately pursue inflection point conclusions in the short term. Adhering to the independent and controllable and localized alternative directions and steadily promoting industrial upgrading are the core of long-term development.
Consumer market: Emerging consumption is growing strongly, and domestic demand potential continues to be released
The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.5%, and communication equipment surged by 26.9%, but PPI fell and CPI ran at a low level.
There is a significant temperature difference between macroeconomic data and business operations and residents’ actual feelings, and the K-shaped differentiation characteristics are significant.
Emerging industries, high-end manufacturing, and new track industries are developing rapidly, while traditional industries are facing the dual pressures of rising factor costs and shrinking market demand. Profit margins continue to be compressed, and industry development is mixed.
Currently, residents’ willingness to save remains high. Annual deposits of residents across the country have maintained steady growth over the years. The core reason is not insufficient income, but residents’ strong demand for preventive savings. Factors such as employment expectations, income stability, and social security systems have restricted the release of consumption willingness.
In the short term, only by relying on special consumption stimulus policies can consumption potential be quickly leveraged; relying on the market’s natural recovery will make it more difficult for consumption to pick up significantly, and the recovery process is highly uncertain.
Full-year outlook: The foundation for growth is solid, and the second quarter will focus on precise efforts
Based on the good economic start in the first quarter, Guangdong has sufficient support to achieve its economic development goals for the whole year. The probability of the economy rising steadily throughout the year and completing the task beyond expectations is high.
At this stage, the focus of development has gradually shifted from the pure pursuit of GDP growth to high-quality development. The cultivation of new productive forces, optimization of industrial structure, and transformation of high-end industries have become the core foundation for the stable operation of the economy.
For the development direction in the second quarter, we will focus on multiple key directions: First, strengthen the fundamentals of the manufacturing industry, continue to promote the strengthening of chains and complement the chains, deepen the digitalization and intelligent transformation of the manufacturing industry, rely on AI to empower the real economy, implement energy-saving and emission reduction policies around the development requirements of industrial intelligence, greenness and integration, and build industrial competitiveness through innovation, green and low carbon.
The second is to seize the opportunity of opening up to the outside world and take advantage of the major opportunity of Shenzhen hosting the APEC meeting to deepen economic and trade cooperation with various economies, promote institutional opening up, expand the export of high-quality products, and enhance the comprehensive benefits of foreign trade.
At the same time, relying on the flow of people and traffic dividends brought by international events, it directly drives the growth of offline consumption such as cultural tourism and retail.
Overall, Guangdong relies on its complete industrial system, diversified market layout and continuous investment in innovation, and its endogenous economic power continues to increase. With the implementation of various precise policies, the advantage of a good start in the first quarter will continue to be transformed into a solid driving force for stable development throughout the year.
