CCTV Financial reported that the China-U.S. route has been fully booked, and the East and South China routes are tight, and the space for June is basically fully booked.
In terms of freight rates, at the end of April, the freight rate for a 40-foot container from Ningbo to the West US was about US$2,900 and the US East was about US$3,900. After several rounds of price increases, it has soared to US$6,300 and US$7,500 respectively. The freight rate on the US-West route has nearly doubled.
Behind this round of inventory explosion is the high foreign trade boom in which domestic exports increased by 19.4% year-on-year in May, coupled with the concentrated release of replenishment demand caused by low inventories of US companies.
In this context, many companies have become direct or indirect beneficiaries.
The first is COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919). As the third largest container shipping company in the world, its routes cover major trade ports in China and the United States, and the revenue from the Americas accounts for about 28%.
Tianfeng Securities’ research report pointed out that demand recovery in 2026 will drive the container shipping cycle upward, and high growth in peak season volume and low growth in shipping capacity are expected to jointly push up freight prices. The agency raised COSCO Shipping Holdings’ net profit attributable to the parent company in 2026-27 to 29.9 billion yuan and 23.5 billion yuan.
However, institutions characterize this wave of market sentiment as a “short-term pulse of tariff rush + geopolitical detour” rather than a new super cycle.
Supply-side pressures such as the intensive delivery of new ships from 2024 to 2027 and the possible resumption of sailings in the Red Sea to release shipping capacity at any time cannot be ignored.
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings’ current price-to-book ratio is only 0.9 times. The pricing logic given by the market is a “peak season rebound” rather than continued high prosperity.
Yantian Port (000088) is the “King of American Lines” in the port sector. Its number of direct routes to the United States ranks first in the A-share market, reaching 55, covering major ports in the west and east of the United States.
The direct recovery in Sino-US trade demand will be the first to benefit from the container throughput of Yantian Port.
The port business model is more stable than that of shipping companies and is less affected by short-term fluctuations in freight rates. It is a stable choice for the recovery of Sino-US trade.
China Merchants Port (001872) is a port operator with a global layout. It operates 38 ports around the world and ranks fourth in the A-share market in terms of the number of direct routes to the United States (17).
The layout of overseas port assets enables it to benefit from the revaluation of port values.
In the global port network, the popularity of China-US routes will directly boost its business volume in the US direction.
In addition, there are also linkage opportunities in the oil shipping sector.
Although oil transportation and container transportation belong to different segments, the tight transportation capacity caused by geopolitical disturbances has a transmission effect.
COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) is the world’s leader in oil and gas transportation, with the largest VLCC fleet in the world.
In Q1 of 2026, the average TCE of the VLCC TD3C route market was as high as US$220,200/day, a year-on-year increase of 459%.
China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) has the dual main businesses of “oil transportation + dry bulk cargo”, and its VLCC fleet is the third largest in the world.
Both companies have benefited from the upward shift in freight rates brought about by the tightening of global shipping capacity.
However, shipping is a typical strong cyclical industry.
The core drivers of the current surge in freight rates – geopolitical conflicts and tariff preemption – are both highly uncertain.
Once the Red Sea sailing resumes or the situation in the Middle East eases, freight rates may fall back quickly.
In addition, 2026 itself is a big year for the intensive delivery of new ships, and the pressure on the supply side of transportation capacity will continue to suppress freight rates in the medium to long term.
Investors need to be wary of the iron law of cyclical stocks that “the stock price is already priced in when the news breaks out.”
(Note: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious.)
