In the first quarter of 2026, national export tax rebates increased by 4.8%, totaling 791.1 billion yuan.
This extra 36.2 billion yuan of “living water” is accurately injected into the capillaries of foreign trade, becoming an important support for the total import and export volume in the first quarter to reach a record high of 11.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%.
To see clearly how this 4.8% supports growth against the trend, we need to dismantle it from the three dimensions of policymakers, companies in different industries, and policy synergies.
From the perspective of policymakers, this is not “flood irrigation” but “precision drip irrigation”.
Official interpretations from the finance and customs departments make it clear that the core goal of this tax refund growth is to “stabilize scale and optimize structure.”
This means that behind the 4.8% growth, there is a clear logic of increase and decrease and structural optimization.
Where to increase: Tax rebate funds are obviously tilted towards high value-added, green and low-carbon industries.
In the first quarter, the country exported 4.34 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 18.3%, accounting for 63.4% of the total export value.
Among them, the export growth rates of the “three new” and green products such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and wind turbine parts were as high as 77.5%, 50.4%, and 45.2% respectively.
The increase in tax rebates provides direct cash flow support for the expansion of these advantageous industries.
Where to reduce: At the same time, policies have “weaned” some industries that already have global competitive advantages.
Since April 1, export tax rebates for photovoltaic products have been completely cancelled, and the tax rebate rate for battery products has been gradually reduced from 9% to 6% and eventually cancelled.
The official explanation is that my country’s photovoltaic industry has accounted for more than 70% of the global market share. The cancellation of tax rebates aims to end the “low-price competition” in which some companies rely on subsidies, forcing the industry to shift from “fighting on price” to “fighting on technology and brand.”
Therefore, for policymakers, the 4.8% growth is a tool, and its real intention is to guide the upgrading of the foreign trade industry and promote high-quality development through the adjustment of capital flows.
From the perspective of export enterprises, the feeling is “ice and fire.”
Structural adjustments in policies have resulted in very different experiences for companies in different industries and sizes.
For companies in cutting-edge industries such as AI electronics and new energy, tax rebates are the “fuel” to accelerate development.
Taking Shenzhen as an example, the import and export of AI-related integrated circuits, storage components and other commodities surged by 63.7% in the first quarter, and the export of “three new items” increased by 37.2%.
For leading lidar companies like Sagitar Jutron, the tax department has opened a “green channel” for tax refunds, enabling “immediate review, quick review and quick refund”.
Its financial director said that the rapid return of funds directly supported R&D investment and global market layout.
Another 3D printing company, Chuangxiang 3D, has processed a total of 204 million yuan in export tax rebates in 2025. These funds have become an important guarantee for its products to be exported to more than 100 countries.
For traditional labor-intensive industries, tax rebates are a “burden reducer” for stable operations.
In the first quarter, Shenzhen exported 72.56 billion yuan of textiles and clothing, an increase of 17.5%.
As an inclusive policy, tax rebates have effectively reduced the export costs of these enterprises and enhanced price competitiveness.
The comprehensive electronic and intelligent review of the tax refund process has also generally shortened the return time of funds and alleviated cash flow pressure.
For industries such as photovoltaics where tax rebates have been cancelled, short-term pain is inevitable.
Leading companies such as Longi and Jinko have quickly raised overseas selling prices to pass on cost pressures.
This is in line with experts’ judgment: the policy will accelerate the reshuffle of the industry, small and medium-sized enterprises lacking core competitiveness will face challenges, and resources will be concentrated on leading companies.
From the perspective of policy coordination, tax rebates are not a “solo operation”, but part of a “combination punch”.
The supporting role of export tax rebates has been amplified in coordination with other policies to stabilize foreign trade.
The special action to facilitate cross-border trade launched in 2026 has launched 29 measures, forming a synergy with the tax refund policy.
Coordinated with customs clearance facilitation: the cross-border e-commerce “tax refund on departure” model is promoted. Enterprises can apply for tax refund as soon as the goods leave the country without waiting for the sales to be completed, which greatly activates funds.
The nationally promoted cross-border e-commerce retail export cross-customs area return model is expected to reduce enterprises’ return costs by about 40%.
Collaboration with financial services: In response to the pain points of cross-border e-commerce companies’ “long tax refund cycle and difficulty in financing”, Shenzhen Longgang District has launched products such as “Longxin Cross-border Loan”, which provides credit loans based on tax refund expectations. Some companies obtained financing within one working day, solving the funding gap for orders.
This synergistic effect builds a complete service chain from fast customs clearance, efficient tax refund to financial support, and comprehensively reduces the comprehensive operating costs of foreign trade enterprises.
Based on the above three dimensions, the logic behind the 4.8% increase in export tax rebates is clearly presented: it directs funds to industries that represent the future through precise structural support; it directly improves corporate cash flow by improving tax refund efficiency (such as Hubei Suizhou cross-border e-commerce tax refunds arrive in 1-3 days); it systematically optimizes the foreign trade business environment through coordination with other policies.
The effect is not only reflected in the present.
According to estimates, the coefficient of export tax rebates on exports is about 1:3 – 1:5.
Based on this calculation, the growth in tax rebates throughout the year is expected to drive export growth by 434.4-724 billion yuan, contributing 0.6-1.0 percentage points to foreign trade growth.
More importantly, this policy orientation of “support and control” points out the transformation path of China’s foreign trade.
As an expert from the Development Research Center of the State Council said, policies are forcing companies to shift from “fighting for price” to “fighting for technology and brand.”
Therefore, this 4.8% growth not only supports the foreign trade data of the current quarter, but also the long-term competitiveness of China’s foreign trade in the global competition to move to the higher end of the industrial chain.
