In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative amount of export tax refunds processed across the country reached 754.9 billion yuan, with an average of more than 8 billion yuan “flowing back” from the national treasury to the accounts of foreign trade companies every day.
During the same period, China’s foreign trade delivered an impressive report card with a growth of 15%, with the total import and export value reaching a historical high of 11.84 trillion yuan for the same period.
So, how does a tax rebate policy with an increase of 4.8% stimulate a 15% increase in foreign trade?
How money is used, efficiency is the key.
Tax refund funds are like flowing blood to enterprises.
In the past, the traditional export tax rebate process often took dozens of days, and blood flow was slow.
But now, this cycle has been greatly compressed.
At Sichuan Saier Valve, the fastest time from application submission to tax payment is one working day; Hubei Kaitian Environmental Technology has also experienced tax refunds arriving in one day.
Hubei Suizhou Cross-border E-commerce Industrial Park has innovated the “fund advance” model. After the company’s materials are reviewed and approved, the tax refund can be received in up to 3 days.
At the Canton Fair, overseas buyers can apply for departure tax refunds in just 2 minutes through self-service equipment, which directly stimulates consumption. From January to March this year, the number of departure tax refund applications in Guangdong surged 15.26 times year-on-year.
The “downsizing” of the process has significantly reduced the company’s capital occupation costs.
A batch of goods from Zhanjiang Qitai Industry and Trade was just loaded on the ship, and the tax refund arrived within 3 days. The funds withdrawn in advance were immediately invested in the purchase of new raw materials, and the interest saved was a real profit.
Who the money is given to, the structure speaks.
The 754.9 billion tax rebate funds are not evenly distributed, with up to 78% flowing to the midstream equipment manufacturing industry, including electrical machinery, general equipment, special equipment, etc.
This means that the core focus of the tax rebate policy is the “belly power” that supports China’s manufacturing competitiveness.
Private enterprises are the absolute main force. In Shenzhen, 55,100 private enterprises contributed nearly 70% of the city’s total import and export value, becoming the main beneficiary group of tax refund funds.
From high-tech enterprises like Shenzhen Chuangxiang 3D (annual tax rebate amount of 204 million yuan) to the export of new energy products in Qinghai (tax rebates increased by 49.5% year-on-year), policy dividends are accurately drip-fed to the most dynamic market entities.
What did money do? The case has the answer.
Tax refund funds arrive quickly, and companies use it to promote a silent industrial upgrade.
Hengyang Coolpad New Energy invested more than 6 million yuan in tax rebates into the research and development of energy storage batteries, increasing the cycle life of its products in the Southeast Asian market by 30%, thus winning a long-term cooperation agreement.
Sichuan Changjiang Machinery used a cumulative export tax rebate of 30.22 million yuan to support the construction of production capacity for key parts of new energy vehicles and successfully transformed into a national high-tech enterprise.
Xuechuan Liupanshan Food used the tax refund of 5.09 million yuan to ensure the efficient operation of the production line. Its monthly output exceeds 5,000 tons of potato products and is exported to ASEAN, which has increased the income of surrounding farmers.
These cases reveal a transmission chain: quick tax refund → ease cash flow → invest in R&D/expand production → improve product competitiveness/open up new markets → obtain more orders and profits.
Tax rebates have changed from a one-time “blood transfusion” to a catalyst that activates the “self-blood production” function of enterprises.
The total export tax rebates in the first quarter increased by 4.8%, which may not seem high, but the leverage effect behind it was sharply amplified by three factors.
First, the foreign trade market itself is growing rapidly. In the first quarter, import and export increased by 15%. The export volume has increased, which naturally led to the expansion of the tax refund base. The growth of tax refunds is first of all the “result” of active foreign trade.
Second, the “efficiency improvement” of the policy is far greater than the “increment”. The core driving force is not the general adjustment of tax refund rates, but the ultimate optimization of the process.
The increase in capital turnover efficiency from “months” to “days” is equivalent to allowing the same amount of money to circulate for the enterprise more than ten times in a year without increasing the total tax refund by a penny, and its leveraging effect is geometrically amplified.
Third, the “rush for exports” effect is concentrated. Industries represented by photovoltaics and lithium batteries are facing the policy node of canceling or lowering export tax rebates starting in April 2026, and have stepped up their export production arrangements before the first quarter.
For example, the export volume of lithium batteries from January to February increased significantly by 46.28% year-on-year.
This concentrated shipment to enjoy the final policy dividend directly and significantly boosted the foreign trade growth rate in the first quarter.
Export tax rebates increased by 4.8% to help foreign trade grow by 15%, which is not a simple proportion.
It is a precise transmission process that takes the efficiency revolution as its core, through precise structural investment, and under the joint action of the high foreign trade boom cycle and the expected policy adjustment window period, to transform the speed of capital flow into international market competitiveness.
When the tax rebate changes from “digits on the books” to “investment in research and development” and “new equipment on the production line”, its support for Chinese manufacturing far exceeds the 4.8% figure itself.
