In 2026, the export tax rebate policy will trigger a series of chain reactions in the current industrial structure.
Many people work overtime all year round, salary growth is slow and consumption tends to be conservative. There are deep macro connections behind this.
Export tax rebates are a normal international trade rule. Its core original intention is to avoid double taxation of goods at home and abroad and allow export products to participate in international competition at tax-free prices.
In the development process of my country’s foreign trade, it has helped my country grow from a small trading country to the world’s largest goods trading country, creating employment for more than 180 million people.
However, with the dramatic changes in the domestic industrial landscape, photovoltaics, lithium batteries, home appliances and other industries have become global leaders, and policies that were originally adapted to the early stages of development have gradually revealed structural contradictions.
From the perspective of fiscal ratio, the scale of national export tax rebates in 2024 will reach 1.93 trillion yuan, while direct fiscal subsidies to promote consumption during the same period will only be 150 billion yuan, and the ratio between the two is approximately 13:1.
Massive financial resources are tilted towards the export side, overseas consumers enjoy policy dividends, and domestic investment space in the field of people’s livelihood is squeezed.
At the same time, some leading photovoltaic companies rely on tax rebates to compete at low prices. Price wars in the industry are fierce and product gross profit margins are declining.
In order to reduce costs, companies extend workers’ working hours and reduce labor expenditures. For example, workers in the photovoltaic and lithium battery manufacturing industries work an average of 53.2 hours per week, far exceeding the national average. The average monthly salary is only 8% higher than the manufacturing average.
Advantageous industries have long relied on export tax rebates to fight price wars, forming a vicious cycle of “extremely long labor – low added value – greater reliance on tax rebates”.
Companies rely on tax rebates to maintain low prices and lack the motivation for technological innovation. They can only control costs by extending working hours and compressing wages.
Long working hours squeeze domestic consumption, leaving workers with neither time nor money to spend, leading to weak consumption.
In response to this situation, it is of great significance to adjust tax rebates for advantageous industries.
From the perspective of reallocating financial resources, lowering the tax rebate rate can increase fiscal revenue, which can be used to increase the minimum wage standard, improve the social security system, and increase inclusive consumption subsidies, directly enhancing workers’ sense of gain.
In terms of industrial upgrading, the elimination of low-price competition can force companies to change their business thinking, promote the upgrading of industries towards intelligence and high added value, and reduce long working hours.
At the same time, it can also ease trade frictions, reduce the risk of overseas “double counterfeiting” investigations, and help companies improve their status in the global value chain.
The adjustment of export tax rebates will follow the principles of classified policies, step-by-step, and controllable risks.
For industries with absolute advantages, export tax rebates will be gradually eliminated in three years; growth industries will maintain moderate tax rebates; labor-intensive industries will undergo differentiated adjustments.
The country will also build a support system for exports to domestic sales to create a two-wheel drive pattern of “export + domestic sales”.
Policy adjustments are highly consistent with the goals of rectifying excessive working hours and boosting domestic demand.
On the income side, the return of funds improves the income of workers; on the production side, it resolves overtime chaos in the workplace; on the consumer side, it breaks the vicious cycle of “extra-long labor – insufficient domestic demand” and forms a positive cycle.
Adjust export tax rebates for advantageous industries to promote the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade development models and achieve a balance between financial resources, industrial development, and people’s livelihood and well-being.
In the future, our country’s economy will move towards a healthier, more sustainable and high-quality development path, allowing all people to share the fruits of development.
