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Cross-border e-commerce in 2026: New changes driven by policy, market and technology

In the spring of 2026, cross-border e-commerce is undergoing rapid reshaping driven by policy dividends and technological transformation. With the resolution of return-related challenges and a rebound in market confidence, Chinese brands are achieving impressive results overseas; meanwhile, the competitive landscape among platforms is evolving, and AI technology is fueling new industry trends.

Cross-border e-commerce in the spring of 2026 is accelerating its reshaping in the wave of policy dividends and technological changes.
The problem of returns has received a “national solution”, the single-day turnover of national fashion brands has soared by 300%, and AI tools can open a store in 30 minutes. A series of changes are profoundly affecting the industry.

Cross-border e-commerce related pictures 1

Previously, the issue of cross-border e-commerce returns has been a pain point in the industry.
Mr. Li, who has been a cross-border e-commerce business for three years, said helplessly that in the past, returns had to be returned the same way. The logistics cost was high and the cycle was long. Sometimes, the goods had to be abandoned directly.
However, on April 1, 2026, this trouble ushered in a systemic solution.
The General Administration of Customs announced that the return model of cross-border e-commerce retail export goods across customs zones has been officially promoted nationwide.
Starting from April 1, when the goods exported by cross-border e-commerce companies are returned overseas, they are no longer required to return them to the original export customs. Instead, they can flexibly choose any customs port across the country to handle the return and entry procedures. This policy applies to cross-border e-commerce retail export goods with a customs supervision code of “9610”. Returned goods are only allowed to be returned to customs supervision operations or sites that carry out cross-border e-commerce retail export business.

Song Xiangqing, vice president of the China Society of Business Economics, said that the cross-customs return model breaks the restriction of “return to the original export customs area”. Enterprises can independently choose any customs port across the country to handle return shipments, significantly reducing reverse logistics costs, shortening the return cycle, revitalizing overseas inventory, and accelerating capital turnover.
Chen Jianwei, a professor at the National Institute for Opening-up at the University of International Business and Economics, pointed out that for consumers, the simplified after-sales return path shortens the waiting period and helps improve the sense of security and satisfaction of overseas online shopping.
In addition, in February this year, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued an announcement clarifying that between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2027, cross-border e-commerce export commodities (excluding food) that are returned to the country in their original condition within 6 months due to unsalable or returned goods will be exempted from import duties, import value-added tax, and consumption tax, and the export duties collected will be refunded.

Cross-border e-commerce related pictures 2

In addition to favorable policies, market confidence is also steadily recovering.
The cross-border merchant confidence index report released by Lianlian International in February 2026 shows that the overall merchant confidence index is 115 (an index value greater than 100 indicates optimism), and the expected index reaches 140, an increase of 1% month-on-month, continuing the growth momentum.
The confidence of merchants in various categories shows a good trend of overall increase.
The home and garden confidence index soared to 118, a significant month-on-month increase of 13%; the fashion and clothing confidence index was 111, a month-on-month increase of 3%; the electronics and digital confidence index was 112, a month-on-month increase of 1%, maintaining a steady upward trend.
Judging from the sales growth expectations, the overall trend shows positive changes: “negative growth decreases, low growth range expands, and high growth rebounds slightly.”

Chinese brands perform equally well overseas.
AliExpress UK station’s anniversary promotion is underway, and brand merchants are experiencing a collective explosion.
Li Ning, the representative of national fashion, performed the most eye-catchingly. With the support of AliExpress’s “Super Brand Overseas Plan”, its single-day turnover increased by more than 300% month-on-month and daily sales, reaching the top of the shoes and clothing category.
Sales of Chinese smart cleaning appliance brand Lubluelu increased 41 times, and sales of Bubble Mart blind boxes increased 13 times.
Chinese high-tech brands such as automotive electronics brand Sunster, mobile phone brand Poco, drone brand Potensic, and Xiaomi kitchen appliances have all achieved triple-digit sales growth month-on-month, and have joined the “million-dollar annual sales club.”

At the platform level, the competitive landscape is also evolving at an accelerated pace.
TikTok Shop’s monthly active users in Europe (France, Germany, Italy and West) and Japan have exceeded 200 million, and the overall volume is equivalent to that of the United States.
The platform ecology is improving at an accelerated pace, and cross-border POP merchants from the UK, Europe and Japan have grown sevenfold annually. Currently, there are about 300,000 merchants, nearly 2 million experts and 1,500 service providers settled on the platform.
At the same time, Pinduoduo Group officially announced the establishment of the “New Pinmu” project and launched the brand’s self-operation model.
The project has already invested 15 billion yuan in cash in the first phase, and plans to invest a total of 100 billion yuan in the next three years to integrate the supply chain resources of “Pinduoduo + Temu”, focusing on systematic self-operation and incubating brands in different categories for the global market.

In terms of technological empowerment, Alibaba International has launched Accio Work, the first enterprise-level AI e-commerce tool. Users only need to send an idea, and the tool can autonomously complete the entire process from market analysis to product release, and can create an operational online store in as little as 30 minutes.
Qiu Han, global senior vice president of PayPal, pointed out at the Boao Forum for Asia that AI technology has significantly lowered the threshold for small and medium-sized enterprises to go overseas.
Virtual goods and digital services are growing rapidly, live broadcasts, short dramas and cross-border travel services are booming overseas, and AI service products have become a new trend overseas.

Market research institutions predict that the global cross-border e-commerce B2C market will grow from US$1.82 trillion in 2025 to US$2.29 trillion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.3%, and is expected to reach US$5.59 trillion by 2030.
Chinese companies going global are experiencing new trends such as rapid growth in demand from emerging markets, accelerated application of AI technology, and rapid growth in virtual goods and digital services.
For sellers, embracing policy dividends, making good use of AI tools, and building brand value will become the key to crossing the cycle and achieving sustainable growth.
The New Deal in April is paving the way for China’s cross-border e-commerce global journey.

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