“Traffic costs have increased threefold”, “low-price involution cannot make money at all”, “user repurchase rate has fallen below the warning line”… These voices will become louder and louder in 2025.
Many people will attribute all of this to “the cross-border e-commerce industry is failing.” However, this judgment may be wrong.
In 2025, the domestic job market situation will be severe.
There are 12.22 million college graduates, and the youth unemployment rate has reached 16-18%. There are also 3.718 million people applying for the civil service examination. For the first time, the number of people taking the civil service examination exceeds the postgraduate entrance examination.
Traditional manufacturing industries are laying off employees, catering retail stores are closing stores, and the chain reactions caused by the real estate crash are continuing, with consumption shrinking, small and medium-sized enterprises closing down, and unemployment increasing.
To understand the employment dilemma in 2025, real estate cannot be avoided.
The downturn in real estate is not just a fall in housing prices. The chain reaction is that residents’ wealth shrinks, consumption expectations decrease, precautionary savings increase, service industry income declines, companies close stores and lay off workers, and the unemployment rate rises, forming a complete negative cycle.
Data shows that the store closing rate in the catering industry will reach a new high in 2025, with nearly 80 typical brands closing stores from April to July.
The manufacturing industry is even worse. The number of bankruptcies of manufacturing companies in Germany, France and other European countries has reached a multi-year high. Many foreign trade OEM companies with a history of 20 years in China’s Pearl River Delta region have collapsed in 2025.
Although the youth unemployment rate is as high as 16-18%, this figure may still underestimate the real situation, because many people choose to take postgraduate entrance examinations, take compilation examinations, return to their hometowns, and temporarily withdraw from the labor market.
Calculated based on the labor participation rate, approximately 15 million to 18 million people have been “hidden unemployed” in this way in recent years.
The craze for exams is not a shift in values, but a rational hedging. When the stability, income, and development space of market-oriented jobs are shrinking, the attraction within the system will be magnified.
But when everyone squeezes in one direction, systemic risks increase instead, and talents flow from productive sectors to distributive sectors. This is a loss of individual rationality in the short term and a loss of public welfare in the long term.
At the same time, cross-border e-commerce constitutes a comparative sample.
In the first eleven months of 2025, China’s exports to North America and the European Union maintained growth.
Alibaba International Station data shows that orders increased by 57% year-on-year.
On the eBay platform, the order volume and number of paying sellers from Chinese sellers increased by more than 45% year-on-year.
For auto parts sellers, overseas business increased by 86%; for consumer electronics sellers, the North American market more than doubled.
Cross-border e-commerce is not without difficulties. There are always pressures such as tariffs, logistics costs, and platform competition.
But compared with most domestic industries, it is at least still growing.
The reason is that cross-border e-commerce connects with global consumption power, especially the North American market.
The purchasing power and consumption habits of American consumers are different from those in China, which is reducing expenditures and pursuing cost-effectiveness. Although there is price competition in the North American market, the overall consumption base is still there, and unit prices, profit margins, and market capacity are all looser than in China.
In addition, Chinese enterprises’ overseas investment will increase by 22.9% in 2025, and manufacturing investment will increase by 37.3%, driving a large demand for overseas jobs.
The post-95 generation has become the main force in expatriates. For an undergraduate who is sent to Africa and the Middle East, his first-year salary can reach more than 250,000 yuan, which is more than twice that of ordinary domestic positions. However, he has to bear the cost of loneliness, harsh environment, cultural adaptation, and safety risks.
Cross-border e-commerce sellers sit in China and sell goods to North America and Europe, enjoying the dividends of geographical arbitrage without having to bear the costs of overseas dispatch. They are the “least need to go overseas”.
Cross-border e-commerce can maintain growth despite the contraction of most industries in 2025, mainly for the following reasons.
First, the supply chain advantages. The cost, efficiency, and flexibility of manufacturing in China are still competitive on a global scale.
Even if they face tariff pressure, as long as the policy does not target only one company, the comparative advantage of Chinese sellers will still exist.
Moreover, under the pressure of tariffs, the efficiency advantage of online channels has been magnified, and consumers will shift their purchasing behavior online.
The second is threshold screening. Cross-border e-commerce is not a zero-threshold business. Compliance requirements, logistics, inventory management, platform rules, cross-cultural understanding, etc. all require investment. These thresholds keep speculators out. Market competition has shifted from pure price war to product innovation and brand value, which is more friendly to people who are serious about doing business.
The third is to provide an outlet for employment mismatch. The essence of domestic employment dilemma is “mismatch”, and the abilities required by cross-border e-commerce, such as supply chain understanding, market insight, data analysis, cross-cultural communication, etc., can be quickly learned in practice. The threshold is lower than expatriation, the return is higher than taking an exam, and the risk is smaller than starting a business.
Of course, cross-border e-commerce is not suitable for everyone. It requires certain learning ability, risk tolerance, and continuous investment.
Competition in the North American market is already fierce, and there are policy risks in emerging markets. Exchange rate fluctuations and changes in platform rules are all uncertainties.
But compared to most domestic industries, it at least still has room for growth.
In 2025, the biggest contradiction in China’s job market is that jobs have not disappeared, but “jobs that are easy to find, easy to do, and dare to do” are decreasing.
Taking exams is a way to avoid risks, being assigned abroad is risking one’s life, and flexible employment is helplessness.
Cross-border e-commerce is not a perfect answer, but it provides a relatively rational choice. It does not require squeezing a single-plank bridge or leaving home, and directly connects to the global market.
From this perspective, saying that cross-border e-commerce “is still the best industry” is not an exaggeration, but a relatively pragmatic judgment at this point in time in 2026.
