In 2026, my country’s lithium battery overseas industry is facing a major change.
The “Announcement on Adjusting the Export Tax Rebate Policy for Photovoltaic and Other Products” issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation pointed out that after the refund to 6% on April 1, the export VAT refund for battery products will be officially canceled on January 1, 2027.
This policy adjustment will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the competitive landscape of the lithium battery industry.
Recently, the General Administration of Customs released foreign trade data for the first four months. my country’s lithium battery exports increased by 43.2% year-on-year. Together with electric vehicles and wind power equipment, they have become the core engine of foreign trade growth.
This high growth rate has attracted attention in the industry, and many people have speculated whether this is related to the window period formed by the adjustment of export tax rebate policies this year.
Interviewees pointed out that the growth rate of battery exports in the first few months of this year is indeed related to the export tax rebate policy.
Yan Yuchong, Director of New Energy Research and Consulting of Shanghai Steel Union, analyzed that the current global energy transformation has driven the continued growth of demand for energy storage and new energy vehicles. Market orders in Europe, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America have been steadily released, and energy storage batteries have become the core driving force for export growth.
The actual global demand for exports accounts for about 60% – 70%; affected by the reduction in the export tax rebate rate, overseas customers concentrated on locking prices in advance from January to March, and domestic companies accelerated customs declaration and shipment, forming a periodic pulse growth. This part of the policy window period stocking accounted for about 30% – 40%.
Relevant policy adjustments have brought new challenges to the operations and overseas layout of domestic lithium battery companies.
The relevant person in charge of Ruipu Lanjun said that in the short term, the export tax rebate reduction may affect the profit margin of the company’s export business.
However, the specific increase in corporate costs is restricted by multiple factors, including product structure, proportion of export business, and the bargaining power of overseas customers.
For Ruipu Lanjun, the company has continued to expand its overseas energy storage and power markets in recent years and has formed a global sales and service system. Policy changes will not change the company’s overseas and global development direction.
Based on demand fundamentals and policy influences, Yan Yuchong believes that the growth rate will slow down in the third quarter of 2026. The effect of concentrated shipments in the early stage will subside, and the growth rate is expected to fall back to 15% – 20%.
The fourth quarter has entered the peak demand season, and demand for replenishment has rebounded after overseas inventories have been digested. Overall exports have maintained a steady growth of 25% – 30% throughout the year, showing strong resilience.
The tax rebate policy adjustment is, on the surface, a change in export costs and profits, but in reality it is forcing the lithium battery industry to bid farewell to the past development model of relying on policy dividends and low-price involution, and shift towards comprehensive strength competition in technology, quality, brand and global services.
The relevant person in charge of Ruipu Lanjun admitted that in the past period of time, the lithium battery industry has experienced periodic supply and demand mismatches and low-price competition. Some companies will also convert export tax rebate space into price concessions in overseas markets.
After tax rebates are rolled back, companies can no longer simply rely on low prices to seize the market, but must return to the product itself, customer value and business quality.
From this perspective, policies can help promote the industry’s price system to return to rationality, and can also help reduce the risk of trade frictions in overseas markets.
The pace of curbing production expansion and homogeneous competition will also appear.
Yan Yuchong said that projects that have been started in the short term will still be released, and production capacity will maintain inertial expansion.
In the medium term, within 6 to 12 months, investment in new production capacity will cool down significantly, the willingness of small and medium-sized enterprises to expand production will drop significantly, and homogeneous expansion will be suppressed to a certain extent.
After the policy is fully implemented in 2027, the industry will enter a stage of rational expansion.
As policy dividends gradually recede, the original low-price competition logic of the lithium battery industry has been broken, and the market structure and export advantage characteristics have also ushered in a new round of reconstruction.
The relevant person in charge of Ruipu Lanjun said that in the past, companies that relied on low prices, low gross profits, and short-cycle orders would be under more obvious pressure; while companies with leading technology, large-scale manufacturing, customer structure, overseas channels, and localized service capabilities would gain more stable development space in the new round of adjustments.
At the same time, interviewees also pointed out that although the export tax rebate bonus is no longer available, the price advantage of China’s lithium battery exports will not disappear.
In the future, competition in the battery industry will shift from pure price advantage to comprehensive value advantage. Overseas customers will not only look at the unit price, but also the cost of the entire life cycle of the battery.
Yan Yuchong believes that after the tax rebate is completely cancelled, domestic lithium battery export prices will increase by 5% – 8%, and the price advantage over overseas competing products will narrow from 20% – 25% to 12% – 15%. The price advantage will weaken but will not disappear.
Relying on a complete industrial chain, large-scale manufacturing efficiency, rapid delivery and continuous technological progress, China’s lithium battery still maintains the world’s leading comprehensive competitiveness.
In the context of the restructuring of the industry structure and the fading of policy dividends, lithium battery companies also urgently need to find their own positioning and come up with systematic response strategies.
Yan Yuchong analyzed that the gap in the industry will continue to widen in the future.
Relying on economies of scale, supporting industrial chain and technical capabilities, leading companies have costs that are 10% – 15% lower than those of small and medium-sized enterprises. This gap can widen to 13% – 18% under policy impact.
Leading companies are accelerating the deployment of overseas production capacity and effectively hedging policy and trade risks; small and medium-sized enterprises lack funds and channels, and are more exposed to risks.
Moreover, leading companies have stronger cash flow and financing capabilities and can survive the adjustment period smoothly; the profits of small and medium-sized enterprises are under pressure, and it is expected that 30% – 40% will gradually withdraw from the market.
Faced with increasingly obvious industry differentiation, companies of different sizes have different ways to respond.
Yan Yuchong said that in the future, building long-term competitiveness will surely become the core support for enterprises to stand firm after the industry reshuffle.
Leading companies can continue to promote global production capacity layout, strengthen technological leadership, deepen industrial chain collaboration, and consolidate scale and customer barriers.
Small and medium-sized enterprises can focus on niche markets, improve professional capabilities, or seek cooperation and integration in the industry chain to avoid homogenization and involution.
The relevant person in charge of Ruipu Lanjun said that in the face of this trend, Ruipu Lanjun will enhance the full life cycle value of customers and continuously enhance product competitiveness through high-safety and high-quality products; it will continue to improve the quality of operations and optimize the cost structure through measures such as improving manufacturing efficiency and coordinating the supply chain; in addition, it will continue to improve its overseas layout.
At present, Ruipu Lanjun has formed a marketing system covering six continents around the world, and its first overseas base, the Indonesian base, is also under construction.
The company will continue to adhere to technological innovation and globalization, and participate in international market competition with higher quality products and services.
