Data released by the General Administration of Customs show that in U.S. dollars, China’s exports increased by 19.4% year-on-year in May 2026, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from April; imports increased by 27.4% year-on-year, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from April.
There are many core driving forces behind this “double growth” trend.
The chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng pointed out that the global AI investment boom in May had a significant boost on China’s exports.
South Korea’s export growth accelerated to 53.2% year-on-year that month, of which semiconductor exports increased 169.4% year-on-year, the growth rate setting a record for a single month.
Chips are currently China’s largest single category of exported goods, accounting for about 9%. The high growth in chip exports in May has played a significant role in boosting overall exports.
In addition, the global manufacturing climate continues to improve.
In May, S&P Global JPMorgan Chase’s global manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 52.6% month-on-month, the highest value since July 2021, and has been in the expansion range for 10 consecutive months.
At the same time, the base number continued to decline in May, and the year-on-year export growth rates in April and May 2025 were 8.0% and 4.7% respectively, which to a certain extent pushed up the year-on-year export readings in May.
From a regional perspective, from January to May, China’s top three export markets were the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the European Union and the United States.
Among them, exports to ASEAN increased by 20.3% year-on-year, maintaining a high level; exports to the EU increased by 16.4%, and exports to the United States decreased by 2.7% year-on-year.
In addition, from January to May, China’s exports to the Belt and Road region increased by 15.8% year-on-year, and exports to Africa increased by 25.8% year-on-year, both at relatively high levels.
Looking ahead to subsequent export trends, Fed Securities pointed out in a research report that exports are still resilient in the short term, and sustainability depends on the prosperity of the AI chain, the sustainability of global manufacturing repairs, and changes in external policy disturbances.
On the one hand, the AI industry chain is still booming, which continues to support the export of integrated circuits, servers and related electronic equipment.
On the other hand, the market still has certain expectations for a phased relaxation of Sino-US trade relations. If there are subsequent marginal adjustments to some tariff policies, it will help further reduce the suppression of exports to the United States.
However, the export growth rate in June may fall back to around 8.0%, mainly because the Strait of Hormus has been blocked for three months and international oil prices continue to be high, which will further exert a drag on the global economy.
Data show that the new export orders index in the manufacturing PMI index fell by 1.7 percentage points to 48.6% in May, and the impact of slowing external demand on my country’s exports will gradually be reflected.
However, in the short term, the global AI investment boom will continue, and my country’s exports of new energy vehicles and high-tech products will still increase at a high rate. In the future, my country’s overall exports will maintain a faster growth rate of more than 5.0%.
A senior macro analyst at China Galaxy Securities said that exports this year will still be supported by three aspects.
First, in the short term, global precautionary stockpiling has brought about a rush for exports; second, benefiting from energy substitution and supply chain advantages, medium and long-term demand shifts and creation effects have offset the negative impact of energy shocks on exports; third, export diversification continues to advance, and the world’s dependence on China is deepening.
In terms of imports, the import index in the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% in April, breaking through the boom-bust line, and was 49.8% in March.
At the same time, the export boom of electronic products continues to drive related import demand.
Driven by the high growth in chip exports and the surge in demand for domestic data center construction, chip imports maintained high growth in May.
Currently, chip imports account for nearly 20% of my country’s total imports. The high growth rate of chip imports will significantly push up my country’s overall import growth rate. This is the main reason why the recent import growth rate has exceeded the export growth rate.
In addition, affected by high international crude oil prices and a low base in the same period last year, although my country’s crude oil imports experienced a significant year-on-year negative growth, the value of crude oil imports grew rapidly.
Data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that the import value of crude oil in May increased by 15.3% year-on-year, and the increase was at a relatively high level.
Based on the price trends of bulk imported commodities such as chips and crude oil, as well as changes in domestic import demand, imports will still maintain double-digit growth in June, but will gradually decline in the later period.
