Data released by the General Administration of Customs on June 9 showed that China’s total import and export value of goods trade in the first five months was 20.68 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points from the previous four months.
Among them, exports were 11.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.8%; imports were 8.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.5%.
As of May, monthly imports and exports have exceeded 4 trillion yuan for three consecutive months. The director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs evaluated this performance as “continuing stable growth.”
But behind the growth, structural differentiation is fierce.
In terms of exports of new engines, new energy vehicles have doubled, and labor-intensive ones have experienced negative growth.
The core driving force for export growth comes from mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products.
In the first five months, exports of mechanical and electrical products were 7.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%, accounting for 63.6% of total exports.
Among them, the export of green products such as lithium batteries and wind turbines increased by about 40%.
The export volume of high-tech products increased by 50.9% year-on-year, accounting for 29.8% of the overall export volume.
New energy vehicles are the biggest single product highlight: 1.833 million vehicles were exported in the first five months, a year-on-year increase of 110%, accounting for 45.2% of total vehicle exports.
In stark contrast, are labor-intensive products.
The export of such products was 1.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%.
Clothing, luggage, toys and other categories are still in the negative growth range, reflecting the continued relocation of low value-added orders.
The import side shows obvious structural characteristics.
In the first five months, the import of mechanical and electrical products was 3.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.3%, accounting for 40.4% of the total imports.
The AI industry chain has formed a “big in, big out” pattern.
It imports core components such as AI chips and high-end storage from South Korea and Taiwan, and then relies on its back-end packaging and testing advantages to complete packaging and integration before exporting.
In May, integrated circuit imports contributed 9.5% to the overall import growth rate.
Another important variable is gold.
As of April this year, domestic imports of precious metals amounted to 651.7 billion yuan, an increase of 416.5 billion yuan year-on-year, driving the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of imports in the first four months to 7.2%.
The impetus for gold purchases comes from the dual support of the central bank’s increase in gold reserves for the 19th consecutive month and social demand for gold purchases.
Clearer pattern changes can be seen from trading partner data.
In the first five months, the total trade value between China and ASEAN was 3.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.6%, firmly ranking as the largest trading partner.
During the same period, the total import and export to the “Belt and Road” countries was 10.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.6%.
Trade with Africa exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the first time in history during the same period, an increase of 18.2%.
The total value of Sino-US trade was only 1.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and the decline was 6.3 percentage points narrower than the previous four months.
China’s exports to the United States accounted for 7.79% of total exports, compared with 19.1% in 2017.
The single-month data in May showed signs of rebound.
The growth rate of China’s exports to the United States rebounded to 35.4% that month, mainly driven by the restoration of momentum brought about by the reduction of U.S. tariffs and the low base in the same period last year.
Analysts at Oriental Jincheng estimate that export growth to the United States in May boosted overall export growth by 3.2 percentage points.
The growth of China-South Korea trade is most obviously driven by the AI industry chain.
In May, China’s total import and export volume to South Korea increased significantly by 64.31% year-on-year, of which the growth rate of imports from South Korea was as high as 83.57%.
Japan’s exports to China increased by 15.5% in April, also driven by demand for AI chips.
There are multiple reasons for the structural decline in Sino-US trade.
90% of the tariffs imposed by the United States on China are borne by domestic consumers and have not effectively protected local industries.
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that the U.S. trade deficit still reached about $60 billion in March this year, and high tariffs have not solved the U.S. trade imbalance problem.
The recurrence of tariff policies has become the biggest uncertainty.
In February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal, and the U.S. immediately stated that it would replace them with new Section 301 tariffs.
After the meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States in May, the two sides agreed in principle to discuss a reciprocal tax reduction framework of US$30 billion each, but the implementation time and specific product scope have not yet been determined.
Changes at the supply chain level are more subtle.
In the first quarter of 2026, U.S. imports from Mexico reached US$131.29 billion, far exceeding the US$60.87 billion in direct imports from China.
But this does not mean that China’s supply chain has withdrawn: parts and semi-finished products are first shipped to Mexico and Vietnam for final assembly, and then sold to the United States.
The deep participation of Chinese manufacturing in the supply chain has not decreased, but the trade path has been lengthened.
The CMF report pointed out that from 2017 to 2025, Sino-US trade dependence continued to decline, with China’s exports to the United States accounting for 11.2% of China’s total exports from 19.1%, and the proportion of U.S. imports from China in its total imports dropped from 21.4% to 9% during the same period.
Experts from the China Macroeconomic Forum believe that Sino-US relations will present a long-term pattern of “control amid competition, and intersection amid competition.”
Eurostat data shows that the EU imported 145.3 billion euros of goods from China in the first quarter of this year, accounting for 23.1% of its total imports. China has consolidated its position as the EU’s primary supplier.
The EU’s exports of goods to the United States fell sharply by 30.4% year-on-year.
South Korea’s semiconductor exports reached US$11.08 billion in April, a significant increase of 42.1%, driven by demand for AI high-bandwidth memory and storage chips.
Considering that the current high prosperity of the AI industry chain continues and the global semiconductor replenishment cycle is still in progress, the main driving force of trade in the second half of the year will most likely still be the AI and semiconductor industry chain.
China’s foreign trade is undergoing a profound structural adjustment.
The proportion of high-end manufacturing is increasing, and the reliance on the US market is decreasing. The driving force is shifting from traditional labor-intensive products to electromechanical products and new energy with technology and capital as the core.
Whether it can continue to consolidate its position in the global industrial chain in this round of industrial upgrading depends on the speed of technological progress and the depth of market diversification.
