In May 2026, China’s foreign trade data performed brilliantly.
Exports increased by 19.4% year-on-year, and the trade surplus in a single month reached US$105.43 billion, setting a record for the same period in history.
At the same time, from the beginning of 2026 to mid-June, against the background of the US dollar index rising slightly by 1.3%, the onshore RMB appreciated by about 3.3% against the US dollar, emerging from an independent market.
The huge demand for foreign exchange settlement brought about by the rapid increase in exports is becoming the core support for the RMB’s strength against the trend.
Data released by the General Administration of Customs on June 9 showed that total exports in May were US$376.78 billion, a year-on-year growth rate that accelerated 5.3 percentage points from April’s 14.1%, exceeding Bloomberg’s consensus forecast of 15%.
The trade surplus was US$105.43 billion, an increase of US$20.61 billion from April.
Dismantling the structure, price factors drive export value far more than quantity.
Huatai Securities estimates that the export price in May was about 9.4% year-on-year, and the export price after deducting integrated circuits was only 3.9% year-on-year.
The price increase driven by the construction of global AI computing power is reshaping the growth logic of China’s exports.
The export performance of integrated circuits in May was particularly outstanding.
The export volume was US$35.55 billion, a year-on-year surge of 110.9%, accounting for 9.4% of the total exports that month, and boosting the overall export growth by approximately 5.9 percentage points.
Exports of automatic data processing equipment increased by 66.1% year-on-year, driving 3.39 percentage points; exports of mobile phones increased by 44.3%, driving 0.96 percentage points.
However, the volume and price structure reveals a key fact: In May, the export quantity of integrated circuits increased by only 2.1% year-on-year, while the price increased by as much as 106.5% year-on-year.
Global memory chip and high-end logic chip prices continue to rise. General-purpose storage production capacity has severely shrunk due to the three giants turning to HBM and server DDR5. The mismatch between supply and demand has pushed up the price center.
ICBC Credit Suisse pointed out that global semiconductor sales increased by 79.2% year-on-year in March 2026, while sales growth during the same period was only 14%, confirming that this cycle is driven by structural scarcity.
Changjiang Macroeconomics’ Yu Bo team believes that the high prosperity of the AI industry will improve the prices of related commodities, which means that the profit margins of China’s AI chain foreign trade companies may improve.
From the perspective of market structure, exports to the United States in May were US$39.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, a significant increase of 24.1 percentage points from the previous month, driving the overall export growth by 3.2 percentage points.
Oriental Jincheng Feng Lin estimates that although this scale is still 11.3% lower than the same period in 2024, the low base effect and the stabilization of Sino-US economic and trade relations have jointly promoted a rebound in growth.
Among other major markets, ASEAN, as the largest export market, exported US$72.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%; the EU exports were US$53.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, with a relatively moderate growth rate.
Exports to South Korea, India, Russia, and Africa all maintained double-digit growth, while Mexico’s imposition of 25% to 50% import tariffs dragged down the overall performance of the Latin American market.
The net inflow of cross-border funds from the non-banking sector in May was US$62.5 billion, with trade in goods being the core contribution.
Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange show that the goods trade surplus in the first quarter of 2026 was US$247.4 billion, continuing a strong trend.
In the first four months, the foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus of trade in goods was US$243.7 billion, which was close to 47% of the US$521.4 billion in 2025.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, pointed out that the export growth rate rose to a high level in May and the market demand for foreign exchange settlement increased, which brought inherent appreciation momentum to the RMB.
Since the beginning of the year, against the background of the US dollar index rising slightly by about 1.3%, the onshore RMB has appreciated by about 3.3%, and the CFETS RMB exchange rate index has risen simultaneously, showing a “double strong” pattern of the US dollar and the RMB strengthening at the same time.
Li Liuyang, head of foreign exchange research at CICC Research Department, believes that stable demand for foreign exchange settlement and hedging is an important support for the relative stability of the RMB exchange rate. China’s energy structure advantages and manufacturing competitiveness support the continued expansion of trade surplus, which is the underlying logic of the mid- to long-term appreciation trend of the RMB.
As for the export trend in the second half of the year, Wang Qing judged that the RMB is expected to maintain a stable to strong trend in the short term, but there are still major variables in the U.S. tariff policy, and the dragging effect of the Middle East conflict on the global economy will gradually appear. There is a possibility of export deceleration in the second half of the year, and the possibility of continued significant unilateral appreciation is unlikely.
From an industrial perspective, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the capital expenditure plans of major overseas technology companies both indicate that AI investment will remain high during the year, which means that the high growth in China’s AI-related exports is expected to continue.
However, price factors account for too high a proportion in current export growth. Once global semiconductor production expansion accelerates or the demand cycle switches, export growth may fluctuate beyond market expectations.
