On April 10, the A-share digital currency and cross-border payment sectors broke out across the board. Changliang Technology (300348) closed up 6.38% at 1.451 yuan, with a full-day turnover of 948 million yuan, a turnover rate of 9.33%, and a total market value of 11.793 billion yuan. This week’s cumulative increase has reached 13.36%.
As a financial technology leader supported by the dual concepts of cross-border payment and stable currency, the company’s latest rolling price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is as high as 3,673 times, which is at a historical high of 97.85% in the past five years. The comprehensive target price of institutions still has nearly 20% room for upside compared to the current stock price.
On the one hand, the stock price continues to rise catalyzed by the concept, and on the other hand, it has the fundamentals of soaring revenue but meager profits. Is Changliang Technology a value depression for financial technology to go overseas, or is it a valuation bubble driven by concept hype?
Below, from the perspective of a senior analyst, we will fully dismantle the fundamental truth and valuation game of this leading bank IT leader.
1. Capital Game: The main force continues to see net inflows, and the differences between domestic and foreign capital intensify
The direct driver of this round of stock price rise is the concentrated entry of capital, but the capital structure shows a clear long-short differentiation, and there is an extreme divergence in the operating directions of domestic and foreign capital, institutions and retail investors.
The main funds are buying goods at low levels, and the concentration of chips continues to increase; foreign capital continues to reduce their positions, and public funds are extremely underweight; leveraged funds buck the trend and increase their positions, and there is a strong gaming sentiment.
2. The truth about performance: revenue surged by 79%, but the core contradiction of net profit margin is less than 1.2%
The 2025 annual report is the core anchor for understanding the company’s valuation contradiction. This report card not only sets a revenue growth record since the company’s listing, but also exposes the core shortcomings on the profit side. The extreme differentiation of revenue and profit constitutes the core feature of the company’s fundamentals.
Revenue has reached a record high, but the profit volume is extremely meager; the performance distribution is extremely uneven, and Q4 alone determines the annual profit and loss; operating cash flow far exceeds net profit, and the profit content is extremely high.
3. Business trump card: overseas expansion has become the core engine, and concept business has not yet contributed substantial revenue
The narrative of the company’s current round of valuation reconstruction is divided into two main lines: one is the substantial breakthrough in fundamentals brought by Southeast Asian banks’ IT overseas expansion, which is the core support for the company’s long-term growth; the other is the valuation premium brought by cutting-edge concepts such as cross-border payments and stable coins, which is a catalyst for short-term stock price increases, but there is an obvious disconnect with the current fundamentals.
Southeast Asian banks are experiencing a wave of IT upgrading, and overseas orders are locking in long-term growth; cross-border payments + stablecoins are fully deployed, but there is a disconnect between concepts and performance.
4. Valuation divergence: 3673 times TTM PE, the ultimate tear between expectations and reality
The current company’s valuation system is in the midst of an extreme tear between historical performance and long-term expectations. The rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 3673 times forms a sharp contrast with the upside space given by institutions. The differences between the long and short sides of the market have reached an extreme.
V. Core Risk Tips
First, there is the risk of disconnection between conceptual hype and fundamentals.
The second is the risk of insufficient profit stability.
The third is the risk of overseas project delivery failing to meet expectations.
The fourth is the risk of stock price fluctuations.
Fifth, there is the risk of intensified competition in the industry.
Standing at the node of April 2026, Changliang Technology is at the ultimate watershed between expectations and reality.
From a positive perspective, the company has a first-mover advantage in the Southeast Asian market and good operating cash flow; however, from a cautious perspective, the profit elasticity is limited, the conceptual business has not substantially contributed to revenue, and issues such as high valuation cannot be ignored.
On April 28, 2026, the company will disclose the full text of the 2025 annual report, which will be the first key window to verify whether the company can support the current valuation.
In the second half of 2026, the acceptance progress of the SCB project in Thailand and the implementation of subsequent orders in the Southeast Asian market will be the core variables that determine the final direction of this valuation game.
The sky-high transaction volume of 948 million on April 10 and the net inflow of over 100 million of main funds this week are the market’s early bets on the leader of financial technology going global. The extreme valuation of 3,673 times and the continued reduction of foreign capital also reveal the huge risks of the current stock price.
For investors, it is necessary to clearly realize that the stock price rise caused by concept hype will eventually return to fundamentals. Whether the company can move from being driven by emotions to realizing performance still requires continuous operating data to answer.
