Is the export pattern really going to undergo disruptive changes?
Recently, some commentaries have directly pointed out that the bigger the export scale, the better. Blindly pursuing exports and striving for a surplus hides many economic risks, releasing a strong signal of a shift in trade policy.
Why should we abandon the “surplus worship”?
Internally, all resources are tilted towards the export industry, domestic consumption-related industries will be squeezed, and it is difficult to speed up economic transformation; externally, due to over-reliance on exports, we will be easily implicated in any disturbances in the international market, and long-term large surpluses will also lead to trade frictions, making us restricted everywhere.
Senior officials have long made it clear that China does not deliberately pursue a trade surplus. It wants to be not only the world’s factory, but also the world’s market. Nowadays, various measures are taken to seriously promote trade balance.
Look at the current foreign trade data to better understand the trends.
Last year, my country’s trade surplus exceeded one trillion US dollars, and exports soared by 19.2% from January to February this year.
But behind this outbreak is a complete reconstruction of the logic of foreign trade.
Mechanical and electrical products have become the main export force, accounting for 62.5%; the weight of trade with the United States has dropped by 16.9%, and the EU and ASEAN have become new growth points; exports have shifted from consumer goods to intermediate goods and capital goods, and Chinese companies have gone overseas to build factories, driving a win-win situation in the global industrial chain.
In April, my country canceled export tax rebates for 249 products, an unprecedented effort, and subsequent major meetings and exchange rate trends have hidden new trends.
As the saying goes, “When things go to extremes, they must be reversed, and going too far is not enough.” Blindly following the trend has long been unworkable.
This trade revolution will usher in a major reshuffle of cities, industries, and assets.
Stop fantasizing about picking up money everywhere. Keeping up with national strategies and locking in hard-core high-quality assets is the only way to cope with changes and preserve wealth.
In this era of great changes in exports, both companies and individuals need to be keenly aware of these changes, adjust strategies in a timely manner to adapt to the new trade environment, and find new opportunities and development space in the changes.
Only in this way can we remain invincible in the fierce international market competition.
