In 2026, the foreign trade market will show a very obvious contrast: terminal export orders have increased significantly, but the sense of security in corporate operations continues to decline.
Many foreign trade operators intuitively feel that inquiries have increased and shipments have become busier, but they dare not take orders casually or change suppliers at will.
The core reason is not simply the rebound in overseas demand, but a deeper reason: the restructuring of the entire chain of export tax rebate supervision, the implementation of upstream penetrating verification, and the expected reduction in tax rebate rates have reshaped the pattern of the entire foreign trade industry.
There are three main real reasons for the recent outbreak of export orders:
The first is that overseas demand has really picked up, and the rigid demand for Chinese manufacturing has increased.
In 2026, the global manufacturing industry will replenish inventories and consumption recovery will be clear, providing a solid foundation for my country’s exports.
In the European and American markets, retail, e-commerce, and industrial manufacturing continued to recover, terminal stocking demand was concentrated, and shipments of mechanical and electrical, household, daily industrial products, and equipment accessories rebounded significantly.
Europe’s energy transformation and green infrastructure continue to advance, and the demand for new energy supporting equipment, hardware, electromechanical, and pipe equipment is stable.
In terms of emerging markets, the demand for infrastructure and livelihood consumption along the Belt and Road, the Middle East, Latin America, and Southeast Asia continues to expand, effectively diversifying single market risks and stabilizing overall export volume.
More importantly, the supporting advantages of China’s entire industrial chain cannot be replaced in the short term. From raw materials, parts, processing and manufacturing to finished product delivery, the complete industrial cluster allows overseas customers to prioritize domestic compliant factories to lock in production capacity in advance and place long-term orders in order to stabilize delivery, stabilize quality, and control costs, directly pushing up the volume of phased orders.
The second is the order transfer caused by the industry reshuffle. After the non-compliant companies were cleared, compliant manufacturers diverted a large number of orders. This is the core internal reason for the order transfer this year.
In 2026, the fourth phase of the Golden Tax will be fully implemented, and the four streams of customs, taxation, foreign exchange, and logistics data will be penetrated and opened up. Export tax refunds will no longer only verify export foreign trade companies, but will trace back the entire chain to upstream production companies and second-tier suppliers.
In the past, a large number of small and medium-sized workshops and traders who relied on paid exports, false deductions, affiliated invoicing, and private collections have completely lost their living space.
Once the upstream production capacity is inaccurate, the invoice is abnormal, the funds are abnormal, or the address is false, the entire tax refund will be suspended, the refunded tax will be recovered, and it will be regarded as domestic sales tax payment.
In order to avoid risks, a large number of overseas purchasers actively eliminated non-compliant small factories and transferred orders to compliant companies with financial and tax regulations, real production capacity and complete documents, forming a pattern of “bad companies exiting the market and good companies taking orders”.
The third is the order-grabbing effect of policies. Under the expectation of a reduction in tax rebate rates, companies will focus on pre-emptive shipments.
There has been a short-term surge in orders this year, and the biggest policy driver is the market expectation that the tax rebate rate will be reduced or cancelled.
Tax rebate policies for many categories have been implemented and adjusted in 2026: export tax rebates for photovoltaic products have been cancelled, power battery tax rebate rates have been reduced, and low value-added categories such as ceramics, some chemicals, plastics, and building materials have all seen tax rebates shrink.
And the industry generally predicts that in the future, low-end involution categories will continue to reduce taxes and gradually cancel tax rebates.
The implementation standard of the tax rebate policy is based on the date of customs declaration and export, which has led to the industry-wide behavior of concentrated orders, production scheduling, and customs declaration and shipment in advance.
Companies have rushed to lock in profits on shipments before the new policy is implemented to avoid subsequent tax rate cuts and profit compression, further pushing up the volume of recent export orders.
As orders increase, corporate anxiety has also reached its peak, with all concerns centering around “strict supervision on tax refunds.”
On the one hand, the risks in the upstream supply chain are uncontrollable and the associated losses are huge. The current tax refund verification is penetrating accountability: even if the foreign trade company’s own business is authentic, the documents are complete, and there are no violations, as long as the upstream supplier has false claims, escapes, false production capacity, or abnormal invoices, the export company will bear all the consequences, including suspension of tax refunds, recovery of refunded tax, payment of VAT and surcharges as domestic sales, large late payment fees, and impact on the company’s tax refund credit rating.
The upstream of many foreign trade companies are mostly dispersed small factories and workshops. Their finances and taxes are not standardized, their production capacity is unreal, and their funds are not closed-loop. Thunderstorms can occur at any time, putting foreign trade companies at passive and associated risks.
On the other hand, tax rebate rates are expected to continue to fall, and profits from future orders will continue to shrink. The bottom line of the national tax rebate policy is very clear: eliminate low-end production capacity with low added value, low technology content, and serious involution, and use tax rebate leverage to force industrial upgrading.
The continuous reduction and cancellation of tax rebate rates for low-end manufacturing categories is a long-term trend, which directly means that the original profit margins of enterprises are compressed, the competitiveness of external quotations is reduced, and long-term long-term orders are not easily accepted for fear of losses due to subsequent policy changes.
Under the new tax refund regulations in 2026, if you want to stabilize tax refunds, avoid abnormal correspondence, and eliminate associated risks, the core is to strictly control the upstream supply chain. The standardized verification system that can be directly implemented is divided into four links:
The first is to set up a one-vote veto mechanism for access before cooperation. Three types of items must be checked: First, the subject qualifications are compliant. The supplier must be a general taxpayer, with a tax credit rating of A/B, no record of escapes, irregular households, and tax fraud and false filings. The business scope matches the production category, and the registered address is true and verifiable; second, the production capacity is real and can be implemented, and has real factories, production equipment, and industrial equipment.
A team of people can provide rental contracts, equipment lists, utility bill vouchers for the past six months, social security salary statements, and raw material purchase and sale ledgers to prevent empty shell invoicing and affiliated production; thirdly, fund invoices are absolutely compliant, and the entire process is settled to the public. Private collections, third-party collections, and capital backflows are strictly prohibited. Purchase and sale invoices have one-to-one correspondence between product names, specifications, and units. Invoicing under the same name is not issued, and general invoices are not issued.
The second step is to implement dynamic reviews during cooperation and implement quarterly + special inspections for large orders: Check supplier declarations and tax payments every quarter to eliminate long-term zero declarations and tax arrears; for single large orders, keep production scheduling records, workshop production records, outbound loading, and logistics vouchers in advance; ensure 100% matching of contracts, invoices, funds, and logistics; monthly reconciliations, stamping and archiving, to eliminate abnormal account transactions.
The third is to archive the data well. All purchase and sales contracts, input invoices, corporate payment vouchers, warehouse entry and exit orders, logistics waybills, and production capacity supporting materials are all kept for ten years and should be subject to tax inspections at any time.
The fourth is to set up a red line early warning mechanism. Cooperation will be terminated immediately if five types of situations occur: requiring private accounts to collect money, increasing prices without invoicing, or issuing invoices on behalf of others; no real factory equipment and a pure shell invoicing company; short-term invoicing volume has increased sharply, and tax burdens seriously deviate from industry standards; there are capital backflows and third-party account transfers; and receipt of tax assistance investigations, early warnings, and correspondence records.
For foreign trade companies to avoid risks and increase revenue, there are four practical suggestions: First, hierarchical management of suppliers, only long-term cooperation with large and compliant manufacturers, small workshops with small trial orders, and strict risk control; second, arrange shipments by category, reduce tax rebates and reduce expected categories to prioritize customs declarations in advance, and lock in profits from the original tax rebate rate;
The contract adds a compensation clause for tax rate changes, clarifying that tax refund losses caused by abnormal upstream invoices and compliance issues will be fully borne by the supplier; fourth, the product structure is optimized, gradually reducing the proportion of low-end tax refund-sensitive categories, and transforming to products with high added value and high compliance advantages to adapt to future tax refund policy trends.
In short, the increase in orders in the foreign trade market in 2026 is just a symptom, while the industry compliance shuffle is the essence.
In the future, the dividends of foreign trade will no longer come from information gaps and low price differences, but from compliance advantages, supply chain stability advantages, and document closed-loop advantages.
Companies that can do a good job in upstream risk control and adapt to the new tax rebate policy will continue to take in incremental orders after the industry is cleared and achieve stable profits.
