my country’s methanol market has shown a unique development trend in recent years.
Over the years, domestic methanol consumption has maintained a growth trend. From 2024, apparent consumption will exceed 100 million tons per year, reaching 115.99 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. In 2026Q1, it was 28.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%.
my country’s methanol supply is mainly domestic, supplemented by imports, and export volume remains at a low level.
In 2025, domestic methanol production capacity will reach 108.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and import volume will be 14.41 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, accounting for approximately 12% of the overall domestic methanol consumption, while export volume is only 290,000 tons.
From the perspective of import sources, my country’s methanol import sources are mainly from the Middle East.
Methanol production capacity in the Middle East has grown rapidly, demand has not changed much, and it has certain cost advantages over domestic coal-based methanol.
In 2024, my country will import 3.3977 million tons of methanol from Oman, accounting for 25.2% of total imports; it will import 3.0884 million tons from the United Arab Emirates, accounting for 22.9%; and it will import 1.9388 million tons from Saudi Arabia, accounting for 14.38%.
On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance issued the “Announcement on Adjusting the Export Tax Rebate Policy for Photovoltaic and Other Products”. Starting from April 1, 2026, the methanol value-added tax export tax rebate will be canceled without distinguishing between varieties. Gray methanol and green methanol will no longer enjoy the original 13% export value-added tax rebate.
Previously, the adjustment of export policies for important chemical products and energy products was not an isolated case. For example, in November 2024, the two ministries and commissions canceled the UCO export tax rebate policy. In 2025, China’s UCO export volume dropped by 6.64% year-on-year.
Referring to the situation of UCO, the cancellation of methanol export tax rebate may guide the flow of products, and some products will be transferred to domestic sales.
Due to the small overall export volume of methanol, traditional coal-based methanol is less affected. However, green methanol has become a national strategic industrial layout, and the impact may be more significant.
Currently, the demand for green methanol mainly relies on the support of overseas policies (carbon reduction in the shipping industry), and the application scenarios are relatively limited.
From a global perspective, the International Maritime Organization passed a draft net-zero emission framework in April 2025 to promote the green transformation of the shipping industry; from a regional perspective, the EU carbon emissions trading system and FuelEU Maritime regulations have created demand for green methanol fuel in the shipping industry.
The consumption of domestic green methanol products mainly relies on exports, and most end customers are overseas shipping companies. The cancellation of tax rebates may have an adverse impact on sales profits.
From the supply side, the domestic green methanol industry is developing rapidly, and production capacity is expected to enter a period of expansion.
As of the end of 2025, the number of green methanol commercialization projects that have been completed in China has reached 7, and the public production capacity has increased to 506,000 tons/year. The total number of projects exceeds 200 (including completed, under construction, and planned). The planned projects cover 24 provinces/regions, and the public production capacity is planned to reach 42 million tons/year.
The consumption of green methanol production capacity may depend on the expansion of domestic application scenarios.
In the domestic methanol downstream consumption field, methanol to olefins, methanol fuel and formaldehyde rank in the top three, acetic acid and MTBE consumption rankings are stable at fourth and fifth, and dimethyl ether is in sixth place.
Methanol is used as fuel only in a small part, and more applications are concentrated in the chemical industry.
The current cost of green methanol production is mostly above 4,000 yuan/ton, which is still at a higher level than traditional coal-based methanol, and the industry still has a lot of room for cost reduction.
At the National Two Sessions in 2026, “green fuel” was included in the government work report for the first time, and a national low-carbon transformation fund was clearly established, green methanol was included in the key cultivation areas of new energy, and policy dividends continued to be released.
The cancellation of methanol export tax rebates is expected to direct part of the production capacity to domestic sales. The impact on traditional coal-based methanol is relatively weak, while the impact on green methanol may be more significant.
Cost reduction and related policy formulation in the green methanol industry are expected to accelerate in the future.
Relevant targets include [Electric Investment Green Energy] [Jiaze New Energy] [China Tianying] [Goldwind Technology] [Foran Energy] [Fujie Environmental Protection], etc. However, attention should be paid to risks such as macroeconomic downturns, industrial policy adjustments, overseas demand fluctuations, raw material and product price fluctuations, and power price fluctuations.
