In 2026, the capital market has bid farewell to the era of purely emotional speculation, and the overall market is completing a round of reshaping of the underlying logic.
Many investors are confused by the fact that the market index fluctuates repeatedly and the market style switches back and forth. It has become normal to make money on the index but not make money.
In fact, in 2026, the market will shift from short-term speculation to performance value restoration, and from an overall general rise to structural differentiation and recovery.
Semiconductor equipment, as the core “industrial mother machine” of chip manufacturing, is not only the most choked link in the industrial chain, but also the direction of key support from the new productivity policy.
Looking at the overall trend of A-shares in the first half of 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index has been oscillating back and forth at the 4,000-point mark for a long time. The technology growth track represented by Science and Technology 50 and GEM has strengthened in stages. High-dividend blue-chip sectors have repeatedly rotated, and the market has shown an obvious K-shaped differentiation pattern.
More than 70% of individual stocks have fluctuated with the index, and only a few main tracks have experienced sustained market trends.
This is because the pricing rules of the entire market are undergoing fundamental changes.
First of all, the market has shifted from “valuation-driven” to “profit-driven.”
The rise of A-shares in 2025 will mainly rely on valuation expansion, while 2026 is a typical year of earnings falsification.
This year, funds are paying more attention to the actual revenue, orders and net profits of enterprises. It is difficult for small tickets that rely purely on conceptual speculation to get out of the sustainable market. Funds have begun to concentrate on high-quality enterprises with proven performance.
Secondly, supervision guides funds from virtual to real, and curbs disorderly speculation on topics.
As the capital market system continues to improve, regulators are guiding capital flows to real industries such as high-end manufacturing and technological innovation, and are tightening controls on behaviors such as speculating on hot topics and speculating on concepts.
At the same time, long-term funds such as social security, insurance, and pension funds continue to enter the market, changing the capital structure of the market. The market trend has changed from skyrocketing and plummeting to oscillating and slow-paced operation.
Finally, the global capital market environment has become differentiated, and foreign capital has reallocated its position structure.
The Nasdaq index of the U.S. stock market rose by more than 21% during the year, but the overall valuation is at a historically high range, and the risk of volatility continues to increase.
The overall price-to-earnings ratio of A-shares is only about 12 times, which has obvious valuation advantages.
Since 2026, northbound funds have shown a net inflow overall, and foreign capital has gradually deployed in growth tracks such as A-share high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, and computing power. However, foreign capital’s positions are biased towards medium- and long-term allocations, resulting in a trend of repeated fluctuations in the A-share market and alternating main line rotations.
Semiconductor equipment is the lifeblood of the chip industry chain, and it is also the most difficult link to break through.
In the entire semiconductor industry chain, equipment is the real upstream source. There is a saying of “one generation of equipment, one generation of technology, one generation of chips.”
The chip manufacturing process requires thousands of processes. Front-end wafer manufacturing equipment accounts for more than 90% of the overall equipment market and is also the field with the highest degree of overseas monopoly.
Companies from the United States, Japan, and the Netherlands have long monopolized the global semiconductor equipment market. In 2026, new overseas regulations will be introduced to restrict the export of key equipment to China and stop technical operation and maintenance services for equipment on sale.
The tightening of the external environment has forced domestic wafer factories to accelerate the independent control of their supply chains.
The scale of the semiconductor equipment market in mainland China will reach 375.5 billion yuan in 2025, becoming the world’s largest semiconductor equipment consumer market for five consecutive years. However, the overall localization rate is only about 21%. The proportion of Chinese equipment procurement in incremental new production lines has increased to 55%, and the existing market substitution space is very broad.
The national level has also continued to increase support. The 15th Five-Year Plan has listed semiconductor core equipment as the first key core technology. The third phase of the national large fund has been launched, focusing on the three major areas of semiconductor equipment, core components, and semiconductor materials. Special R&D subsidies and tax preferential policies have been introduced in many places. The industry has entered an upward cycle of triple resonance of policies, funds, and demand.
Next, let’s sort out the six core tracks of semiconductor equipment:
1. Etching equipment: The localization progress is the fastest, and the industry prosperity continues to lead.
Etching equipment is the core process after photolithography. Dry etching accounts for more than 80% of the market share, and its value accounts for about 20% of the overall semiconductor equipment.
At present, the overall localization rate has reached 31%. Domestic companies have introduced batches into major wafer factories in the field of mature process etching, and advanced process etching equipment has also entered the verification stage of leading companies.
With the expansion of global computing power production capacity, the order volume of etching equipment continues to be full, and the ability to deliver performance is strong.
2. Thin film deposition equipment: The demand for production capacity is strong, and the leading advantage of platform is highlighted.
Thin film deposition equipment, photolithography, and etching are also called the three core processes of chip manufacturing, and their value accounts for about 20% of the overall equipment.
At present, the overall localization rate of domestic thin film deposition equipment is about 27%, and domestic leading companies have achieved batch supply in the fields of PVD and PECVD.
As the memory chip cycle recovers and the number of thin film layers of advanced process chips continues to increase, the purchase demand for thin film deposition equipment continues to be released, and the medium and long-term growth space of the leading players in the track is stable.
3. Cleaning equipment: the largest usage, the strongest demand attribute, and the volume is steadily increasing.
Cleaning equipment is a necessary equipment for the whole process. Although the value of a single machine is not high, it is purchased frequently and used in large quantities, and it runs through the entire chip production process.
The technical threshold of cleaning equipment is relatively moderate, the localization rate is steadily increasing, and mature process cleaning equipment is basically independent and controllable.
The industry logic favors steady growth, small cyclical fluctuations, and strong order sustainability.
4. Ion implantation equipment: a key process of doping modification, with broad room for substitution.
Ion implantation equipment is the core process for debugging the conductive performance of chips. The technical barriers are relatively high. Previously, the localization rate was less than 10%.
In the past two years, domestic manufacturers have achieved breakthroughs in the field of medium and low-energy ion implanters. The overall localization rate has increased to about 13%, and there is ample room for import substitution.
5. Measurement and testing equipment: the core of yield assurance, gradually achieving breakthroughs from zero to one.
Measurement and inspection equipment is the key equipment to ensure chip yield, but the barriers to optical inspection algorithms are extremely high. They have been monopolized by overseas companies for a long time, and the localization rate is low.
With the large-scale construction of domestic mature process production lines, the pace of domestic verification of measurement equipment has accelerated.
6. Lithography equipment: the crown jewel of semiconductor equipment, gradually making breakthroughs.
Lithography machines are the most difficult equipment for chip manufacturing. High-end EUV lithography machines are still difficult to break through in the short term. Domestic manufacturers are currently focusing on the development and production of 28nm and above mature process lithography machines. Mature process lithography machines have been shipped in small batches and are gradually entering the testing and verification stage of domestic wafer factories.
Based on the current overall capital style and liquidity environment of A-shares, three rational observation directions can be sorted out for the semiconductor equipment track: first, distinguish the market attributes and distinguish performance leaders from subject matter tickets; second, grasp the rhythm and do not chase the rise and kill the fall; third, balance the allocation and take into account the balance of offense and defense.
Semiconductor equipment is the long-term main line of technological self-reliance and self-improvement in the next ten years. It requires patience to accompany the growth of the industry and a rational view of the rhythm of rise and fall.
