2026 is the key year for the conclusion of the “14th Five-Year Plan” and the key transition year for the layout of the “15th Five-Year Plan”. The pace of transformation and upgrading of the domestic manufacturing industry continues to accelerate. The machinery and equipment sector, which is the core support of the real economy, is ushering in an important window for structural market conditions.
The latest machinery industry outlook report for the second half of the year released by the industry points out that the current investment logic of the sector has shifted from general rising prices to value mining in subdivided tracks. Investors can seize layout opportunities in the second half of the year from three core directions.
The first direction is to focus on the main line of growth of AI-related technologies.
The global AI industry is currently entering an explosive period of large-scale commercial implementation. Industrial dividends are rapidly being transmitted to the upstream manufacturing end, driving the demand for related machinery and equipment to continue to rise: among them, optical modules are the core hardware for computing power network transmission. As shipments of high-specification optical modules such as 800G and 1.6T continue to rise, the market gap for corresponding high-precision optical module testing instruments continues to expand. The order growth rate of related equipment manufacturers has remained above 30% for three consecutive quarters; AI
As the core carrier of computing power boards, PCBs are accelerating the localization process of corresponding high-end drilling, copper plating equipment and special consumables. The market share of domestic manufacturers is increasing year by year. At the same time, the high energy consumption needs of AI computing power centers have also driven the rapid expansion of market demand for efficient AI power generation equipment and supporting energy storage equipment. The long-term growth of related tracks is extremely certain.
The second major direction is to lay out future industries and emerging industries that will be supported by the “15th Five-Year Plan”.
The “15th Five-Year Plan” clearly regards future industries as the core of China’s economic transformation and upgrading and the conversion of new and old kinetic energy. Among them, policy support for humanoid robots, controllable nuclear fusion and other tracks continues to increase: the field of humanoid robots is currently at a critical stage of localization of core components, such as harmonic reducers, servo
The market space for service motors, high-precision sensors and other related processing equipment has exceeded 100 billion. As controllable nuclear fusion is the core direction of the next generation of clean energy, the demand for related experimental equipment and special equipment for core component processing has been initiated first. Equipment manufacturers with technical reserves will be the first to enjoy the track dividends.
The third direction is to combine the cyclical characteristics of subdivided industries and lay out low-valued high-quality stocks with upward beta in the industry.
At present, some traditional machinery subdivisions have completed inventory clearance and entered a new round of business cycle: in the construction machinery sector, as the pace of domestic infrastructure projects has accelerated and overseas export markets have continued to expand, industry revenue growth has turned positive for two consecutive quarters, and there is sufficient room for valuation restoration; machine tools are industrial mother machines. Driven by the national manufacturing equipment upgrading policy, the localization rate of high-end CNC machine tools is rapidly increasing, and leading companies with solid fundamentals and high technical barriers have a higher investment performance-price ratio.
The report also reminds investors that during the layout process, investors need to balance the certainty of track growth and valuation levels, make reasonable allocations based on their own risk preferences, and truly grasp the long-term dividends brought by the structural upgrade of the machinery industry.
